Atletico Madrid - Osasuna predictions and free betting tips [19/05/2024]

On Sunday, 19 May, as part of the 37th round of the Spanish La Liga, Atlético Madrid will host Osasuna. Diego Simeone's team sits in fourth place in the standings and has already secured a spot in the Champions League, while the team from Pamplona is positioned 13th.

Atlético Madrid

The hosts have let Real Madrid and Barcelona pull ahead but still harbour hopes of finishing third this campaign. The capital club is just 2 points behind Girona in third, which is more than attainable. Especially since "Los Colchoneros" have gained significant momentum in recent weeks, securing four consecutive wins: against Athletic Bilbao (3-1), Mallorca (1-0), Celta (1-0), and Getafe (3-0)—where Antoine Griezmann's hat-trick decided the match in the Madrid suburb. Atlético now faces Osasuna and Real Sociedad to close out the season before turning their attention to the transfer market. It's worth noting that the hosts have tightened their defence in May, conceding none in their last three rounds. 

Moreover, Diego Simeone's side ranks second in the overall home points tally (49 points from 18 matches, 41 goals scored, 18 conceded). Thomas Lemar will once again miss the match due to injury, as will centre-back Molina. Otherwise, Diego Simeone can count on an optimal line-up, with French talisman Antoine Griezmann (16 goals, 6 assists) leading the attack, bolstered by Álvaro Morata (14 goals), Argentinians Ángel Correa (9 goals, 2 assists), Rodrigo De Paul (who scored the only goal against Celta last weekend), and Memphis Depay (5 goals). Saúl Ñíguez might start in the holding role, but no other changes from the last round are expected.

Osasuna

After two rather successful seasons, Osasuna has slowed down this campaign. However, there's nothing alarming for the Pamplona club: they sit in 13th place in the table but are 9 points clear of the relegation zone. Therefore, "Los Rojillos" have long secured their top-flight status, despite not winning in six consecutive rounds. After four straight losses—against Valencia (1-0), Rayo Vallecano (2-1), Granada (3-0), and Betis (2-0)—the Basques settled for two draws in May: with Athletic Bilbao (2-2) and Mallorca (1-1). Jon Moncayola put Pamplona ahead in the 14th minute, but Mallorca equalised in the second half through Sergi Darder. 

It's noteworthy that Jagoba Arrasate's side ranks only ninth in the overall away points tally (19 from 18 matches, 22 goals scored, 29 conceded). Midfielder Ibañez (1 goal, 1 assist in La Liga), who was suspended for accumulating yellow cards mid-week, will return to the squad for this game. Croatian forward Ante Budimir (Osasuna's top scorer in La Liga with 16 goals), who has been out for the last few weeks, is back in training and likely to start. Therefore, the only remaining absentees are Kike Barja (16 matches this season) and David García (1 assist). Catena and Errando will once again form the central defensive partnership, while Moncayola will ensure the defensive midfield holds firm.

Head-to-head

In the first leg, Atlético secured an away victory with a 2-0 scoreline. Moreover, the "Mattress Makers" have consistently triumphed in the last 11 head-to-head encounters.

Prediction for Atlético vs. Osasuna

It has been 10 years since Osasuna last defeated Atlético in La Liga, and this streak is unlikely to end on Sunday evening. Diego Simeone's team has hit top form in May, securing three clean-sheet victories in a row, while the Pamplonans have long lost interest in the remainder of the season and have no league motivation. Home support will further boost the hosts, so I back a triumph for the Madrid side with a -1 handicap.