On Sunday, 5 May, within the scope of the 34th round of Spanish Primera, Valencia will host Alaves on their home field. Los Che occupies the eighth spot in the league table, trailing two points behind Betis, which is a spot higher. The white and blues are positioned twelfth and are concluding the season with no particular objectives.
Valencia: Domenech; Correia, Mosquera, Gasiorowski, Vazquez; Gonzalez, Pepelu, Guillamon, Guerra; Almeida, Duro.
Alaves: Sivera; Gorosabel, Tenaglia, Marin, J Lopez; Benavidez, Blanco; Vicente, Guridi, Simeone; Kike.
On Monday evening, Valencia lost to Barcelona due to Lewandowski's hat-trick (4:2) and, more importantly, the expulsion of the primary goalkeeper Mamardashvili in the first half. This defeat is the second consecutive one after a 1:2 fiasco against Betis. Before these two defeats, Blanquinegros claimed 2 La Liga victories – over Granada (0:1) and Osasuna (0:1).
Valencia will be glad to return to their native land this weekend since, in 16 matches hosted, the team collected 29 points, suffering only three losses. It's evident that with a two-point deficit from Betis, placed seventh, Los Che continues to hope for a Euro-cup zone finish. Furthermore, last year, Ruben Barahi's team finished 16th overall, which marked the worst result since the club's relegation from the top division at the end of the 1985-88 campaign.
Alaves, nestled in the second part of the league table, has never aimed for Euro-cup participation. However, following an upgrade, the visitors set goals to remain in the top tier next season which they seem likely to achieve: the gap from Cadiz, ranked 18th, is 12 points. Last weekend, the underdog outplayed another relegation candidate, Celta (3:0), following a sensational 2:0 win over Atletico Madrid.
There were no goals seen during the first half, but after the recess, Alaves prevailed with efforts from Simeone, Guridi, and Benavides. The blue-whites managed only two away victories this season, accruing only 11 points from 16 away fixtures (fifth worst demonstration in the division), scoring 11 goals and conceding 21.
In the first round, Valencia lost 1:0 to Alaves, even though the blue-whites had not won at Mestalla in their last 12 confrontations.
Despite Valencia's recent form dip, having suffered two defeats in a row, remember that Alaves hasn't won away from home for four matches, facing three consecutive losses. Unlike the adversary, Los Che maintains motivation for the rest of the season, with aspirations to finish in the Euro-cup zone – losing points at home this weekend is unsustainable. My forecast is a victory for the yellow-orange side.
Alaves hasn't scored a single goal in their last four away battles and concludes the season without any competition motivation. It's doubtful that the visitors will break through at Mestalla, therefore ITO is less than 1.
With the support from the home crowd, Valencia playing as no.1 will be more aggressive with their attacks, hence it would make sense to bet on Los Che triumphing on corners.
Valencia earns about 1.7 yellow cards per match, whereas the visitors receive 2.2. I would place a bet on a victory for the white-blues with warnings.
I am going with an exact score of 2:0 in favour of Valencia.
# | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | G | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 33 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 57 | 89:32 | 76 | |
2 | Real Madrid | 33 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 66:31 | 72 | |
3 | Atl. Madrid | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 56:27 | 66 | |
4 | Ath Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 24 | 50:26 | 60 | |
5 | Villarreal | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 56:45 | 55 | |
6 | Betis | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | 54 | |
7 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 50:49 | 46 | |
8 | Osasuna | 33 | 10 | 14 | 9 | -6 | 40:46 | 44 | |
9 | Mallorca | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 31:38 | 44 | |
10 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | -5 | 32:37 | 42 | |
11 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -7 | 35:42 | 41 | |
12 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 31:30 | 39 | |
13 | Espanyol | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 35:42 | 39 | |
14 | Valencia | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | -12 | 37:49 | 39 | |
15 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 35:44 | 37 | |
16 | Girona | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | -12 | 40:52 | 35 | |
17 | Alaves | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -11 | 35:46 | 34 | |
18 | Las Palmas | 33 | 8 | 8 | 17 | -15 | 38:53 | 32 | |
19 | Leganes | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | -19 | 30:49 | 30 | |
20 | Valladolid | 33 | 4 | 4 | 25 | -57 | 24:81 | 16 | |
1 | Barcelona | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 46:14 | 40 | |
2 | Real Madrid | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 38:16 | 40 | |
3 | Atl. Madrid | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 34:14 | 40 | |
4 | Ath Bilbao | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 31:10 | 36 | |
5 | Celta Vigo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 28:17 | 33 | |
6 | Betis | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 30:19 | 32 | |
7 | Osasuna | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29:23 | 30 | |
8 | Valencia | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 23:19 | 28 | |
9 | Espanyol | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 20:16 | 27 | |
10 | Villarreal | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32:23 | 25 | |
11 | Mallorca | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 17:18 | 24 | |
12 | Real Sociedad | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 17:17 | 23 | |
13 | Rayo Vallecano | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21:24 | 21 | |
14 | Girona | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 26:25 | 21 | |
15 | Sevilla | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14:19 | 20 | |
16 | Getafe | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 14:15 | 19 | |
17 | Alaves | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 12:16 | 19 | |
18 | Leganes | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 17:25 | 19 | |
19 | Las Palmas | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 19:24 | 17 | |
20 | Valladolid | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10:28 | 13 | |
1 | Barcelona | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 43:18 | 36 | |
2 | Real Madrid | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 28:15 | 32 | |
3 | Villarreal | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 24:22 | 30 | |
4 | Atl. Madrid | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 22:13 | 26 | |
5 | Ath Bilbao | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19:16 | 24 | |
6 | Betis | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 20:22 | 22 | |
7 | Mallorca | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14:20 | 20 | |
8 | Rayo Vallecano | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 14:18 | 20 | |
9 | Getafe | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 17:15 | 20 | |
10 | Real Sociedad | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 15:20 | 19 | |
11 | Sevilla | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 21:25 | 17 | |
12 | Alaves | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 23:30 | 15 | |
13 | Las Palmas | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 19:29 | 15 | |
14 | Osasuna | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 11:23 | 14 | |
15 | Girona | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14:27 | 14 | |
16 | Celta Vigo | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 22:32 | 13 | |
17 | Espanyol | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 15:26 | 12 | |
18 | Valencia | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 14:30 | 11 | |
19 | Leganes | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 13:24 | 11 | |
20 | Valladolid | 17 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 14:53 | 3 |
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