Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid predictions and free betting tips [18/01/2024]

On Thursday 18 January, as part of the Spanish Cup ⅛ finals, Atletico will host Real Madrid on their home turf. Carlo Ancelotti's charges triumphed over the Mattress Makers with a 5:3 scoreline a week ago in the country's Super Cup semi-final, and now the hosts are thirsty for revenge. 

Predicted Lineups

Atletico: Oblak; Witsel, Gimenez, Hermoso; Molina, De Paul, Koke, Saul, Lino; Morata, Griezmann.  

Real Madrid: Lunin; Carvajal, Rüdiger, Fernandez, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Kroos; Bellingham; Hoselu, Vinicius.  

Stadium

The match will take place in Madrid at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium.  

Atletico

Atletico invariably falters when it comes to playoff matches in any tournaments against Real Madrid. Notably, the Mattress Makers lost to Los Blancos in both the 2014 and 2016 Champions League finals. Despite being the only club to beat Ancelotti's side this season, Atletico capitulated to their eternal rivals 5:3 after extra time in last Wednesday's Spanish Super Cup semi-final. Diego Simeone's team were leading with ten minutes to go, but then conceded three times. The Madrilenians trail league leaders Girona (11 points) and indeed Real (10) in the title race - moreover, at present, Atletico aren't even in Champions League spots (only 5th place). 

In the last round of the country's Cup, the capital team managed a 1:3 victory against Lugo, and Memphis Depay starred in the second half. Atletico's Reinildo (injured since the start of the season) went to the African Cup of Nations with Mozambique, and Memphis Depay is likely to have picked up another injury (the Dutchman missed the Super Cup semi-final). Meanwhile, Pablo Barrios and Thomas Lemar are still in rehabilitation. Antoine Griezmann (11 goals, 3 assists in La Liga) found the net against Real and is now Atletico's all-time highest scorer - the striker will definitely be in the starting eleven, as will his strike partner Morata (12 goals). The midfield will be controlled by experienced players Rodrigo De Paul, Koke, and Saul. 

Real Madrid

After losing 3:1 to Barcelona in last season's Super Cup final, Real Madrid took their revenge last weekend in Saudi Arabia, inflicting a painful embarrassment on the Catalans (4:1), thanks to a hat-trick from Vinicius. This trophy was the first for the star attacking trio of Los Blancos (Vinicius, Rodrigo, and Bellingham), and above all, it marked their second victory of the current campaign against Blaugrana. As mentioned earlier, Madrid's only loss in all competitions so far was at the Wanda Metropolitano against Atletico (3:1) - that was 21 matches ago. Now, Carlo Ancelotti's side occupies the second spot in La Liga, one point behind Girona, but with a game in hand. In the previous round of the Cup, the guests triumphed with a 1:3 scoreline away at Arandina.

Real's defence currently has serious personnel problems: Militao, Courtois, Alaba, and Vasquez are all injured. None of the club's players went to the African Cup of Nations or the Asian Cup, so Ancelotti can field virtually the same starting eleven as in the Super Cup final. Vinicius will appear in the attack, accompanied by Rodrigo (7 goals, 4 assists in La Liga) and Jude Bellingham (13 league goals). Arda Güler, who has only played two matches since transferring to Madrid, will also start because of unavoidable rotation. Eduardo Camavinga will fill the gap on the defence flank, and Kepa Arrizabalaga will be replaced by Andrey Lunin in goal.

Head-To-Head

As already mentioned, Atletico managed to dispatch Real with a 3:1 scoreline in the league. However, Los Blancos have achieved victory at the Wanda Metropolitano only once in their last five encounters.  

Match prediction: Atletico – Real

Much of this Madrid derby's fate will depend on the form and motivation of Real, who have just clinched the Spanish Super Cup. Having dealt the visitors their only defeat of the season in the autumn, the Mattress Makers pose a formidable force at home, and the hosts' leaders, who have returned from injury, have added potency to Atletico's line-up. One has the feeling that Simeone will deliver another surprise - I'm betting on victory for the hosts with a zero handicap. 

Total Prediction

Both sides boast a galaxy of stars in attack, and last week they combined to score eight goals in a single match. I'm betting on both to score and waiting for a repeat of the high-scoring shootout.