As Euro 2024 is unfolding in Berlin, the WTA 500 tennis tournament is in full swing with a significant presence of Russian tennis stars. Among them, Veronika Kudermetova and Liudmila Samsonova will face off in the round of 32. This encounter promises to be an exciting clash between the two Russian-speaking competitors, and we're here to find a good bet for this match.
Kudermetova’s game hasn't quite clicked this season, and it appears that psychologically, the Russian player is not ready to compete even in matches where she should win based on her skill level.
Last year, Veronika showcased good tennis, though she sometimes lacked tactical wisdom in key matches. She struggled in the semifinals against Iga Świątek in both Qatar and the Madrid Masters but managed to clinch a trophy in Tokyo, overcoming the Polish player in the tournament draw.
On grass, Veronika could have won in 's-Hertogenbosch, but in the Russian face-off against Ekaterina Alexandrova for the title, Kudermetova stumbled despite winning the first set and performing comparably to her compatriot throughout the match. This season has seen many challenges for the Russian, with some very tough matches and a tendency for potential upsets. For instance, in the previous tournament in 's-Hertogenbosch, Kudermetova had a mixed outing. She had no issues against Zhuoxuan Bai, almost as if she could only lose to herself in that match, but her game against Dalma Gálfi was much more even, as the Hungarian didn't strive for dominance and instead allowed Kudermetova to make mistakes.
The WTA 500 in Berlin kicked off for Veronika with qualifiers, where she played two preparation matches but had to put in some effort to earn a spot in the main draw. Against her compatriot Liudmila Samsonova, Kudermetova needs to adopt a powerful playing style to keep the initiative from shifting to her opponent. Additionally, her serve will be crucial, though it has been inconsistent, as evidenced against Gálfi, where she struggled to find the service boxes effectively.
Samsonova is a force to be reckoned with when she’s on form, capable of winning tournaments ranging from WTA 250 to WTA 1000.
Last season, Liudmila performed exceptionally well on her favoured hard courts but couldn't capture a title, falling short in three decisive battles, two of which were in Masters tournaments. These losses were understandable, however, if you watched the action in Montreal and Beijing, where facing off against Jessica Pegula, who aimed for a major title, and Iga Świątek in the final were formidable challenges.
This year began on a tough note for Liudmila. She had a decent run in the UAE, reaching the semi-finals and narrowly losing to Elena Rybakina in three sets. On clay, Samsonova performed well in Strasbourg, only to be bested by Madison Keys in the semi-finals. She advanced to the third round at Roland Garros before being ousted by Elisabetta Cocciaretto, who played consistently on the slow surface and knew how to handle such an opponent.
Samsonova began her grass-court season excellently, winning the tournament in 's-Hertogenbosch. Despite a challenging draw, she navigated through some straightforward matches and tougher clashes, notably overcoming Alexandrova in the semi-final, who had won this tournament the previous two years. In the final against Bianca Andreescu, Samsonova capitalised on the Canadian's inconsistent serving, clinching a few return games to secure the title.
In the match against Veronika Kudermetova, Samsonova needs to be creative in rallies and serve accurately to gain psychological and tactical advantages. Being more aggressive on return will also be crucial, as her opponent's serve can be shaky.
Veronika Kudermetova has one more win compared to Liudmila Samsonova. On grass, they have met twice in Berlin: Samsonova won in straight sets in 2021, while Kudermetova triumphed in three sets in 2022.
I propose betting on the first set: TO 9.5 games. Serving will be crucial in the opening set, with a 5-5 scoreline or 4-6 in either direction a likely outcome. Both players will seek to gain the upper hand and initiative right from the start.
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