Hello everyone! We are once again pondering the matches of the 3rd round of Roland Garros. The men's bracket is full of surprises, but it seems that in the match between Alex de Minaur and Jan-Lennard Struff, whoever wins, it will be a logical result, as everything depends on the players' readiness for that particular match.
The Australian often advances through various tournament distances and reaches the decisive battles for trophies, but he rarely wins them. For instance, in 2023, de Minaur lost three finals but won one in Acapulco, where he passed a tough draw. However, at Queen's Club on grass, and on hard courts in Los Cabos and Toronto, the Aussie was outplayed.
This season, de Minaur lost the decisive match for the trophy in Rotterdam, where he passed Sebastian Korda, Andrey Rublev, and Grigor Dimitrov, but Jannik Sinner was again stronger. Alex then won the title in Acapulco again, coming through a difficult path, including a superb match against Casper Ruud for the trophy. De Minaur performs standardly in clay tournaments without breakthroughs. It doesn’t mean that clay matches don't interest him; it's just harder for him to show his technique on this slower surface as he prefers the classic hard court where his style and technique are more suitable.
At Roland Garros, the Australian played two good matches. The match against Alex Michelsen was straightforward for de Minaur, and in the 2nd round, he faced "clay-courter" Jaume Munar. Munar tried to surprise the Aussie on the return in the 1st set and pragmatically worked from his serve in the 3rd, but eventually lost 0:3 in sets.
Struff plays well on clay, balancing his tennis correctly, and has a decent serve. De Minaur will need to be solid in his attack and not falter on his serves. The key for Alex is not to lose tactically to Struff; otherwise, it will be an even match.
Last year, Struff started playing results-oriented tennis and almost won the Madrid Masters if he had defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final, but the German only managed to clinch one set.
Moreover, many things are now working for Struff, such as his forehand becoming more reliable and his serve more powerful. In 2023, Struff took his tournaments seriously, contending for trophies. Besides the clay-court Masters final in Madrid, he could have won the Halle Open, but lost to Frances Tiafoe, who barely won two sets in tie-breaks.
This year, Struff has been less dominant over distances but managed to win his first "main" trophy on clay in Munich, where he had a tough draw but convincingly won all his matches, including the final against Taylor Fritz and the semi-final against Holger Rune.
At Roland Garros, the German player easily passed two rounds, defeating a South American "clay-courter" first, followed by Alexander Bublik in three sets.
The match against Alex de Minaur will be very tough for Struff, but he can certainly outplay the Australian if he sticks to his rhythm and focuses solely on his own tennis in this match.
De Minaur leads 3-2 in head-to-head meetings, but the only match on clay, played in Monaco, was won by Struff.
I'm betting on TO 39 games in the match. It's quite possible that the players will go to 5 sets, but the outcome of the match remains an intriguing mystery.
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