Alex Michelsen - Dennis Novak predictions and free betting tips [15/05/2024]

The American Alex Michelsen, seeking his super game on clay, managed to advance to the 1/16 finals in Oeiras despite doubts that the uncomfortable clay surface might benefit his opponent. Now, the player from the USA will face the renowned "clay-court specialist" Dennis Novak from Austria, who looked incredibly confident in his first-round match. However, he played half the match against Dan Added, who either got injured or decided to conserve energy for the Roland Garros qualifiers after trailing at (0:6; 0:1).

Alex Michelsen

If you read my article about the American's battle with Enrique Rocha, you probably understood that Michelsen’s entry into the Oeiras Challenger (4) was no surprise to me. It was a logical decision, especially since the lad is trying to get in shape for the French Open, where everyone will be heading, and judging by his ranking, he will make it directly to the main draw, bypassing the qualifiers. So, he must prepare for the Grand Slam on clay to avoid an early exit in the first round.

Indeed, Michelsen hasn’t been friendly with clay, having focused on hard courts last season. But he must learn to perform effectively on clay to avoid a first-round loss in Rome to the Russian Pavel Kotov (1:6; 1:6). He needs to know how to play on this slow surface.

In the first round of the Oeiras tournament, the American defeated Enrique Rocha, playing moderately well. Although it was enough to mount a comeback and showcase decent stats on his serve, where his forehand was indeed powerful, he didn’t produce any aces and gave away several break points.

Facing the Austrian Novak will be a different level of tennis. Dennis won’t relinquish initiative easily in simple situations, so Michelsen must play offensively. Improving his first serve will be crucial, requiring not only aces but also difficult receptions for the Austrian.

Dennis Novak

Those well-versed in tennis surely know about Dennis Novak and his capabilities in the ATP tour. Once hailed as the most talented tennis player from his country, Dennis is now seldom seen in the top-200 rankings.

Last season, Dennis improved his game on the Challenger series, clinching his only title on hard in Nonthaburi, where he played excellent tennis in every match. His results thereafter were mixed, including a clay final at the Challenger in Bad Waltersdorf, where he lacked precision in the second set against Andrea Pellegrino. He also reached the semi-finals on hard courts in Alicante and had a chance to claim a title at the indoor tournament in Hamburg, but Ilya Marchenko was too good in the final.

This year, Novak reached the quarter-finals twice in Nonthaburi, on clay in Ostrava, and here in Oeiras, where he lost to the Frenchman Valentin Royer. In the previous round of the ongoing Oeiras Challenger (4), the Austrian had an easy set against Dan Added, and then led in the second set before the Frenchman retired from the match, possibly due to injury.

The match against Michelsen will be tough, where Novak must combine well and aim straight under the baseline to make the American defend and struggle to respond accurately. A good return of the American’s serves, especially his first serve, will be essential.

Match Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Dennis Novak

I will bet on TO 21.5 games. The Austrian will have advantages in rallying, while Michelsen will strive to serve reliably and seize opportunities for attacking cross-court shots to prevent his opponent from expertly utilising his clay-court skills in this match.