On Sunday, 30 June, in the 13th round of the Brazilian Serie A, Fortaleza will host Juventude. Both teams are battling for a spot in the Copa Sudamericana zone, and a victory could enable either side to climb into the top seven.
The match will take place in Fortaleza at the Castelao Stadium.
Fortaleza started this season confidently, going unbeaten in their first six matches and earning ten points. Subsequent setbacks against Bahia and Cuiaba were followed by a crucial 1-0 victory over Gremio on 20 June.
Last week, the red and blue team stunned the football community by thrashing Palmeiras 3-0, moving up to 11th place in the standings. Lucero scored twice, with Bruno Pacheco adding the third goal. Notably, Juan Pablo Vojvoda's side has yet to suffer a home defeat this campaign, boasting three wins and three draws in six home games, placing them eighth overall.
However, goals have not come easy for the hosts. With just 11 goals, they have the third-lowest tally in the division after Gremio (9) and Atletico Goianiense (10). They have, however, conceded only three goals at home, a record they share with Bahia. Fortaleza will be without Kervin Andrade and Benjamin Kuscevic, who are on international duty at Copa America 2024. Injuries also plague the team: midfield trio Mateus Rossetto, Moises, and Marinho are out until the end of next month due to muscle issues, while right-back Dudu remains sidelined with a knee bruise. Consequently, the attacking trio will consist of Machuca, Lucero, and Pikachu, with Welison and Augusto in midfield.
Last season, Juventude finished second in Brazilian Serie B, earning promotion. After 11 rounds this season, the white-greens have amassed 16 points, six more than the relegation-threatened bottom four.
In midweek, the Verdao secured their fourth win of the campaign, narrowly defeating top-placed Flamengo. Pedro put the red and blacks ahead early, but Lucas Barbosa equalised in the 26th minute, with Mandaca netting the decisive goal just three minutes before the final whistle. As a result, Roger Machado's side remains undefeated at home, though their away form is disappointing, having yet to secure an away win and earning just two points on the road.
It's worth noting that the visitors have scored in 12 consecutive matches across all competitions. This weekend, central defender Ze Marcos and first-choice goalkeeper Gabriel return from yellow card suspensions. Romercio hasn't played since September last year and is still far from recovery. Clayton (knee), Edson Carioca (knee), and Marcelinho (hamstring) remain in the treatment room. Thus, Farias and Gilberto will partner in the attack, with Everton orchestrating play in midfield and Ruschel and Lucas occupying the full-back positions.
Last season, Juventude drew 1-1 with Fortaleza both home and away. The white-greens haven’t defeated this opponent in their last eight encounters since September 2009.
Despite Juventude’s strong start to this campaign and their position away from the relegation zone, the Serie A newcomers struggle away from home, ranking fourth from the bottom in this metric. Last week, Fortaleza obliterated the robust Palmeiras and are in good form, unbeaten in their last three matches. I’ll risk backing a home victory for Fortaleza.
Both teams consistently score at least one goal per game in this campaign. Additionally, in four of their last five head-to-head clashes, both sides found the net. My prediction is "both teams to score".
Fortaleza, buoyed by home support, will likely dominate possession and attack more frequently. Hence, I’m confidently backing Fortaleza to win the corner count with a handicap of -1.5.
Both teams average 2.8 yellow cards per game this season. I predict the total yellow cards to be over 4.5.
I’ll place my bet on a final score of 2-1 in favour of Fortaleza.
# | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | G | PTS | |
1 | Botafogo | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 43:24 | 50 | |
2 | Fortaleza | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 30:22 | 48 | |
3 | Palmeiras | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 38:19 | 47 | |
4 | Flamengo | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 39:28 | 44 | |
5 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 34:26 | 41 | |
6 | Sao Paulo | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 33:26 | 41 | |
7 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 34:27 | 39 | |
8 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 29:34 | 34 | |
9 | Atletico Mineiro | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | -1 | 32:33 | 33 | |
10 | Internacional | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 22:19 | 32 | |
11 | RB Bragantino | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 29:30 | 30 | |
12 | Athletico Paranaense | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -2 | 26:28 | 29 | |
13 | Juventude | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 29:35 | 29 | |
14 | Criciuma | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 32:35 | 28 | |
15 | Gremio | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -5 | 23:28 | 27 | |
16 | Fluminense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -6 | 20:26 | 27 | |
17 | Corinthians | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -9 | 22:31 | 25 | |
18 | Vitoria | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -13 | 26:39 | 22 | |
19 | Cuiaba | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 23:35 | 22 | |
20 | Atletico Goianiense | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -19 | 21:40 | 18 | |
1 | Fortaleza | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:6 | 33 | |
2 | Cruzeiro | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23:8 | 29 | |
3 | Sao Paulo | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19:9 | 29 | |
4 | Botafogo | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:9 | 28 | |
5 | Palmeiras | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 23:9 | 28 | |
6 | Flamengo | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19:12 | 26 | |
7 | Bahia | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:7 | 26 | |
8 | Vasco da Gama | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 20:17 | 24 | |
9 | RB Bragantino | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:11 | 22 | |
10 | Juventude | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18:11 | 22 | |
11 | Corinthians | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17:12 | 19 | |
12 | Criciuma | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17:18 | 18 | |
13 | Atletico Mineiro | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:17 | 17 | |
14 | Fluminense | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13:11 | 17 | |
15 | Internacional | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12:10 | 16 | |
16 | Gremio | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 12:14 | 16 | |
17 | Athletico Paranaense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14:14 | 14 | |
18 | Vitoria | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 15:19 | 14 | |
19 | Cuiaba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 11:16 | 10 | |
20 | Atletico Goianiense | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11:20 | 9 | |
1 | Botafogo | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 21:15 | 22 | |
2 | Palmeiras | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15:10 | 19 | |
3 | Flamengo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 20:16 | 18 | |
4 | Atletico Mineiro | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16:16 | 16 | |
5 | Internacional | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10:9 | 16 | |
6 | Fortaleza | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10:16 | 15 | |
7 | Athletico Paranaense | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12:14 | 15 | |
8 | Bahia | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 17:20 | 13 | |
9 | Cruzeiro | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11:18 | 12 | |
10 | Sao Paulo | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 14:17 | 12 | |
11 | Cuiaba | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12:19 | 12 | |
12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11:14 | 11 | |
13 | Vasco da Gama | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 9:17 | 10 | |
14 | Criciuma | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 15:17 | 10 | |
15 | Fluminense | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7:15 | 10 | |
16 | Atletico Goianiense | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10:20 | 9 | |
17 | RB Bragantino | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 13:19 | 8 | |
18 | Vitoria | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 11:20 | 8 | |
19 | Juventude | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 11:24 | 7 | |
20 | Corinthians | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 5:19 | 6 |
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