Atalanta BC - Bayer Leverkusen predictions and free betting tips [22/05/2024]

On Wednesday, 22nd May, in the Europa League final, Atalanta will face off against Bayer Leverkusen. The Bergamo side, having lost the Coppa Italia final last week, are eager to secure their first-ever continental trophy, while the Germans remain undefeated this season.

Projected Line-ups

Atalanta: Musso; Djimsiti, Hien, Scalvini; Zappacosta, Pasalic, Ederson, Ruggeri; Koopmeiners, De Ketelaere; Scamacca.
Bayer: Kovar; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapié; Frimpong, Xhaka, Andrich, Grimaldo; Hofmann, Wirtz; Schick.

Atalanta

A 3-0 victory over Marseille in the second leg of the Europa League semi-final at home two weeks ago not only reassured the Bergamo fans after a 1-1 draw at the Stade Vélodrome but also secured Atalanta's first-ever appearance in a continental final. In previous rounds, the blue-and-whites defeated Sporting (3-2 on aggregate) and Liverpool (3-1 on aggregate), including a 0-3 thrashing at Anfield. In the league, Gian Piero Gasperini’s men occupy 5th place and have guaranteed a return to the Champions League. Nerazzurri have won five consecutive Serie A matches: against Monza (1-2), Empoli (2-0), Salernitana (1-2), Roma (2-1) and Lecce (0-2) last Saturday. Last week, the nominal home side lost to Juventus in the Coppa Italia final (0-1), with Dusan Vlahovic's first-half goal being decisive.

Atalanta are likely to be without several key defenders for the final. Veteran Kolasinac and centre-back Holm are sidelined with injuries. Dutch midfielder de Roon, who picked up an injury in the recent Coppa Italia encounter, is expected to miss Wednesday's match; centre-back Palomino was left out of the Europa League squad. Nevertheless, Gasperini will rely on his optimal line-up: Koopmeiners (12 goals and 4 assists), Belgian De Ketelaere (10 goals and 6 assists in Serie A, 2 goals and 2 assists in the Europa League) and, notably, Scamacca (11 goals and 4 assists, 6 goals in Europa League) will be tasked with creativity up front. The bench options include Lookman (9 goals and 6 assists in Serie A, 2 goals and 1 assist in the Europa League) and Alexei Miranchuk (3 goals and 5 assists).

Bayer

Bayer Leverkusen remain unbeaten this season. In April, the team clinched their first-ever Bundesliga title, ending Bayern Munich's 12-year dominance. However, the "Pharmacists" aren't stopping there, as they are set to face Kaiserslautern in the DFB-Pokal final this weekend. Under Xabi Alonso, they have terrorised opponents on the continental stage, overcoming Qarabag (5-4 on aggregate), West Ham (3-1) and Roma (4-2) in previous rounds. In May, the red-and-blacks celebrated two league wins over Eintracht Frankfurt (1-5) and Bochum (0-5), followed by a 2-1 victory against Augsburg last Saturday, becoming the first German team to win the Bundesliga unbeaten.

Leverkusen's high-scoring form is another bright spot for fans: the nominal visitors have scored at least twice in their last six games. Bayer only face one fitness concern: promising midfielder Florian Wirtz (18 goals and 19 assists across all competitions this season) had been dealing with a thigh issue but managed to return against Augsburg on Saturday and is expected to start on Wednesday. Otherwise, Xabi Alonso has his strongest squad available: Frimpong (9 goals, 7 assists in the Bundesliga; 3 goals in the Europa League) and Grimaldo (10 goals, 13 assists in the Bundesliga; 2 goals, 3 assists in the Europa League), along with midfielders Andrich (4 goals), Hofmann (5 goals, 7 assists), Xhaka (3 goals), Palacios (4 goals) and Czech striker Schick (7 goals in the Bundesliga, 5 in the Europa League) will get playing time. The main attacking threat remains Nigerian centre-forward Boniface (14 goals, 8 assists, 5 goals in the Europa League).

Head-to-Head

The teams met in the last 16 of the 2021/22 Europa League, where Atalanta advanced on aggregate (4-2).

Match Prediction: Atalanta vs Bayer

Bayer Leverkusen are a genuine powerhouse this season, and there’s no doubt the Germans will lift the trophy on Wednesday. Atalanta have been in good form recently, but they cannot match the quality of the "Pharmacists". No surprises here, I predict a triumph for the favourites.

Total Goals Prediction

Many expect a high-scoring shootout, but often forget this is a final. Both teams are under pressure and unlikely to push the tempo from the start, hence I am betting on total goals under 3.