On Tuesday evening, the Chicago Cubs will head to Tropicana Field for the first game of their series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Jameson Taillon (2.83 ERA) is set to start for the visitors, whilst the Rays will send Zach Eflin (4.12 ERA) to the mound. The Cubs will begin this series as favourites, but Tampa Bay on home turf could spring a few surprises.
Last week, Taillon conceded 5 runs and 10 hits over 5 innings against the Chicago White Sox. The Cubs managed to rescue their starter from a loss in that game, but Taillon’s recent matches have not been stellar. Although the team snapped the Cincinnati Reds' seven-game winning streak on Sunday, they have lost 12 out of their last 16 matches heading into this series opener. Nico Hoerner remains out of the lineup after taking a ball to the right wrist, and his condition will be evaluated this week.
Zach Eflin pitched decently upon his return from the injured list, allowing 2 runs and 3 hits over 4 innings against the Miami Marlins. He carries a 4.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, and there is a chance he could stay on the mound longer today. However, Tampa Bay's home performance this year has been abysmal, losing 12 out of 16 games, which significantly determined their standing in the league. They currently bring up the rear in their division.
Zach Eflin is currently the main strength in the hosts' rotation, given the slew of injuries they've faced. Taillon, meanwhile, previously played for the Rays, making them quite familiar with his pitches. It appears wiser to edge towards a Rays victory, but the Cubs have hitters capable of turning the tide, and the hosts' poor results do not inspire confidence. Eflin is good, but perhaps not good enough, which is why I favour ITO2 (3.5) more than a Tampa win.
The Rays' batting this season has been, to put it mildly, less than stellar, but any of their players could hit 4 out of 4 on a good day. The Cubs should also not be left behind. Considering Eflin's recovery and Taillon's familiarity to the Rays, a total of 7.5 runs should be comfortably achievable.
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