Betting Strategies
22.05.2023, 10:15
21.05.2024, 21:12
57
0

The Sure Bet: Discovering the Most Proven and Profitable Sports Bets

Millions of people worldwide pursue Sports betting bookmakers as a form of entertainment or as an additional source of income. The main objective for gambling enthusiasts is to place winning bets. Participants thoroughly analyse, read expert predictions, and apply various betting strategies.

Both novice and experienced players utilise low-risk sports betting strategies that give them a higher probability of winning. By employing such strategies, they can make informed bets with a greater chance of success.

The Most Reliable Sports Bets

Nigerian bookmakers offer dozens of options for a single sports event.

Given the correct analysis, the most profitable long-term sports bets include:

  • Outcomes - the result of a match.
  • Totals - the total number of specific actions, such as goals in football or hockey, being higher or lower than a chosen number.
  • Handicaps - the victory of a team or player with a specific point difference in the score.
  • Both Teams to Score - goals scored by both teams in football or hockey.
  • Combination Markets - two outcomes considered together, such as a result and the total number of games in tennis.

The most popular sports in bookmakers are football, tennis, hockey, basketball, and volleyball.

Low-Risk Betting Strategies: Minimizing Risks for Maximum Returns

Indeed, only some models can guarantee consistent profits in sports betting, whether in the long or short term. However, beginners, amateurs, and professionals employ various strategies that help mitigate the risk of losses and increase the chances of winning. 

By implementing these strategies, bettors aim to improve their overall profitability. It's important to remember that sports betting involves uncertainty, and even the most successful strategies have limitations. Managing expectations and maintaining discipline are key factors in achieving long-term success in sports betting.

Betting on the Favorite (Backing Front-Runner)

Betting on the favourite, backing the stronger side, is a strategy that can be applied to various sports. The key to success lies in conducting a thorough analysis, considering the tournament situation, results and statistics, team compositions, form, and motivation. Optimal odds for this strategy typically range from 1.20 to 1.50.

This approach minimises risks but may result in relatively small profits even with a successful bet slip. It's essential to remember that while betting on favourites can be a prudent strategy, it does not guarantee success in every instance, as upsets and unexpected outcomes can occur in sports.

Betting on the Underdog (Backing Outsiders)

Betting on underdogs provides significant returns relative to the initial investment, as bookmakers often offer high odds for their victory, ranging from 2.20 to 2.40. To achieve long-term success, it is crucial to identify suitable matchups between favourites and underdogs.

Several factors can influence the success of underdog bets:

  • When an underdog is playing at home, in good form, and highly motivated for victory, while the favourite is not in their best form after a long series of matches and lacks important tournament objectives in the upcoming game, and considering that the underdog has previously taken points from the favourite in head-to-head matchups, these factors collectively increase the likelihood of a successful underdog bet. The home advantage can play a significant role in boosting the performance of underdog teams. Their familiarity with the stadium and support from the home crowd can create an atmosphere that inspires them to perform at a higher level. Additionally, being in good form indicates that the underdog has been achieving positive results recently, showcasing their ability to compete and potentially cause upsets.
  • Motivation is another crucial factor. When an underdog has strong motivation, such as a desire to prove themselves against a favoured opponent or the opportunity to secure a significant victory, it can drive them to perform at their best and potentially exceed expectations.
  • The favourite's less-than-ideal form and absence of crucial tournament objectives can lead to complacency or a lack of focus, making them more vulnerable to an underdog's challenge. Previous head-to-head encounters where the underdog has successfully taken points from the favourite suggest that there may be specific factors or strategies that the underdog employs effectively against the favourite, giving them an edge in the matchup.

Fans can choose from various markets for the underdog: outright win, double chance, handicap win, or goal in the match.

The success rate of underdog bets is below 35-40%, but due to the high odds on underdogs, the strategy can be profitable

"Doubling up" with analysis

"Doubling up" is a strategy where bets are placed on the same outcome until a successful result is achieved. The amount of each subsequent bet is increased to recoup previous losses and generate a profit.

When selecting events for this strategy, it is crucial to conduct an analysis.

To implement the "doubling up" strategy, the bettor needs a substantial bankroll sufficient to continue the series after an unsuccessful outcome. Experienced players recommend placing the initial bet at 1-2% of the bankroll.

"Live-doubling" with analysis

"Live-doubling" is a specific case of the classic doubling-up strategy with analysis. Placing bets in real-time allows you to observe the events unfolding in the sports arena.

Various types of bets are suitable for this model, such as:

  • The goal within a specific time interval in football
  • Total goals scored in a period over 1.5 in hockey
  • Outsider's victory in a quarter in basketball

The Dallas Strategy

The Dallas strategy involves placing live bets on the absence of goals from the underdog. The bet can be placed after the first 15-20 minutes of the game under the following conditions:

  • The favourite possesses the ball for at least 60% of the game time.
  • The underdog launches a few dangerous attacks and rarely hits the goal.
  • The odds for the victory of the strong team before the start of the match are at most 1.50-1.60.
  • The underdog scores, on average less than 1 goal per match.

The coupon should be placed with odds of at least 1.50-1.70, depending on the timing of the match.

The Dallas strategy suits low-scoring championships like the Russian Premier League (RPL) or the Greek Super League.

Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting, also known as "sure betting" or "forks," is a strategy where a bettor places opposing bets on the same event with different bookmakers to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. 

This opportunity arises due to variations in the odds offered by different bookmakers. The profitability of arbitrage opportunities can range from tiny fractions to several tens of percentage points.

Amateur sports bettors often utilise scanner websites displaying arbitrage opportunities across bookmakers. Arbitrage betting, characterised by minimal risk, allows bettors to secure profits regardless of the outcome of an event. However, engaging in arbitrage risks having one's account blocked by bookmakers' security departments, leading to potential account suspension.

On the Vprognoze website, you can find reviews of popular services for discovering bookmaker arbitrage opportunities.

The First-Half Goal Strategy

Customers of bookmakers place bets on a first-half goal before the match begins or during live betting while observing the game. This approach aims to minimise risks when betting on football matches.

This strategy is suitable for matches involving high-scoring teams in leagues known for their offensive play, such as the Netherlands and the lower divisions of Germany. Choosing motivated opponents with a strong attacking line and a weak defence is tactically advantageous.

Ensuring a Goal is Scored

The Mandatory Goal strategy involves placing a bet on Over (Total Goals) shortly before the final whistle in important matches where both teams are particularly motivated for a positive result. 

At least one of the opponents actively attacks, increasing the likelihood of scoring a goal. By betting on Over, you expect at least one more goal to be scored before the end of the match. This strategy takes advantage of the attacking intent and increased goal-scoring opportunities in the game's late stages.

Second-Period Total in Hockey

According to statistics, the second period in hockey is the most high-scoring. Fans place bets on the Over 1.5 goals in the second period before the match or during the game, considering the result of the first period. 

If the odds for Over 1.5 goals in the selected match are below 1.80, you can wait for the odds to increase and place the bet at the beginning of the second period. This strategy capitalises on the trend of increased goal-scoring during the second period in hockey.

Covering all Outcomes: A Strategy for Risk Management

Hedging all outcomes is a betting strategy where a placed bet wins, and the player places a bet on the opposite outcome to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome.

Here are some examples of hedging:

  • A customer places a bet on Team 2 (P2) with odds of 4.00. After the first half, the chosen team is leading 2-0. The player then places a bet on the double chance of Team 1 or a draw with odds of 2.50 to secure a win regardless of the final result.
  • A user creates an accumulator bet with five events, and 4 of them have already been played. With odds of 1.40, the fifth outcome must successfully win the accumulator. The customer then places a bet on the opposite outcome with odds of 2.90 to win even if the accumulator loses.

Hedging allows for zero risk and a guaranteed profit. However, in the case of a successful outcome of the initial bet, the profit will be lower due to the unnecessary insurance.

Opposite Bet

"Opposite Bet" is a specific case of the strategy of covering all outcomes, where a bet is placed on the event opposite to the last remaining outcome in a winning accumulator bet.

Opposite Bet

Fans of combined bets use this model when only one unfinished event is left in the accumulator to guarantee a profit.

For example, consider an accumulator bet of $1000 with four outcomes. The total odds of the accumulator are 3.27, and the potential payout is $3270.

№ Outcome Odds Result
1 1.40 Winning
2 1.50
3 1.30
4 1.20 The event hasn’t come

To ensure a profit regardless of the outcome, the player places a bet on the opposite result with odds of 5.00.

The bettor determines the size of the opposing bet. For example, if they bet $654, they can also win $3270.

The McCune Strategy

The McCune strategy is based on monitoring the line movement of bookmakers and is suitable for betting on North American leagues such as NHL, NBA, MLB, MLS, and other championships.

There is no need to conduct a sports analysis to find a profitable bet. It is sufficient to monitor the line movement, indicating where the professionals place their bets.

The tactics of the strategy include:

  • The odds gradually decreased for the strong team - placing a bet on the favourite. Conversely, if the odds increase for the favourite, betting on the underdog.
  • If there are no significant changes in the odds, bet on the strong team.
  • Following the line movement in both directions and place bets accordingly.
  • However, with the development of online betting, the McCune strategy has lost its relevance, and experts recommend relying on something other than this strategy.

First Goal by Foot in Football

Most football goals are scored with players' feet, and bookmakers offer bets on the first goal to be scored with a foot, with odds ranging from 1.30 to 1.50.

This model suit matches involving teams from lower leagues without tall forwards.

You can combine 2-4 selections into an accumulator bet to increase the potential profit.

Ladder Betting Strategy

"Ladder" is a simple betting strategy that involves placing multiple consecutive bets and increasing the size of each subsequent bet. The bettor places a wager and moves the winnings to the next event in the event of a successful outcome. This strategy allows for potential profit growth and is easy to implement.

Ladder Betting Strategy

The strategy involves placing bets until the desired financial goal is achieved.

You can place bets with odds ranging from 1.20–1.40 or 1.50–1.70. Opting for higher odds can potentially expedite reaching your goal, but it also comes with increased risk.

Corner Betting Strategy

Here are a few strategies for corner betting in football:

  • Corner total "double up": This strategy involves betting on the total number of corners in a match, using a "double up" approach. If your initial bet loses, you increase the stake for the next bet on the corner total until you achieve a winning bet.
  • Last corner by the losing team: In this strategy, you bet on which team will take the last corner in the match. Typically, the losing team tends to push for more attacking opportunities towards the end of the game, increasing their chances of earning a corner.
  • Individual corner total: With this strategy, you focus on a specific team and bet on their total number of corners in a match. Analyse the team's playing style, attacking prowess, and previous corner statistics to make an informed decision.
  • Favorite's corner victory with a handicap: This strategy involves betting on the favourite team to win the corner count with a handicap advantage. The handicap is designed to create balanced odds by adjusting the number of corners awarded to each team.

Financial Strategies for the Most Reliable Bets

Financial strategies in sports betting allow for proper bankroll management and playing with minimal risk. By effectively managing your funds, you can avoid losing all your money even during a prolonged losing streak. 

However, it's important to note that financial strategies are not meant to generate quick account growth. Their primary focus is preserving your bankroll and minimising the risk of significant losses.

Martingale Sports Betting Model

The Martingale financial model is a betting strategy that involves placing bets on outcomes with equal probabilities and doubling the wagered amount after each consecutive loss until a successful outcome is achieved. The first win brings a profit equal to the initial bet.

Martingale Sports Betting Model

Betting customers place bets with odds ranging from 1.80 to 2.20. It is crucial to start the game with a small portion of the bankroll to allocate funds for many transactions in the event of a prolonged losing streak. Otherwise, the player may not be able to recover losses and may end up losing even more.

Flat Sports Betting Strategy

"Flat" is a low-risk betting strategy where bets are placed at 1 to 5% of the bankroll.

Variations of the strategy based on the bet size are as follows:

  • Academic: 1-2% of the bankroll based on the player's assessment.
  • Static: Strictly 1% of the bankroll.
  • Chaotic: 1 to 5% of the account depends on the player's assessment.
  • Aggressive: Strictly 5% of the account.

Beginners and amateurs typically use the academic and static "Flat" strategies. The chaotic and aggressive models are suitable only for professionals.

Fixed Profit Strategy: Securing Consistent Returns

When using a fixed profit strategy, bettors determine the desired amount of profit they want to achieve, for example, $2000, and then choose their stake accordingly. They may bet $1000 with odds of 2.00 or $1800 with odds of 1.10 to win the targeted $2000.

Planning the expected profit size before making match predictions is important.

Fixed Percentage Bankroll Strategy

The fixed percentage bankroll strategy is similar to the "Flat" betting model as it involves placing bets with a predetermined size. The user adjusts the next bet's size based on recent bankroll changes.

For example, let's consider an initial account balance of $10,000. The customer bets 2% of their bankroll, which is $200. If the first bet is successful with odds of 6.00, the bankroll will increase to $11,000, and the next bet, according to the strategy, would be adjusted to $220.

Mathematical Strategies in Betting

Mathematical strategies are tailored for experienced bettors due to their higher level of risk.

When employed correctly, mathematical models demonstrate substantial long-term profitability.

The Kelly Criterion Betting Strategy

The Kelly Criterion is a method for assessing the optimal size of a bet based on the bettor's own estimation of the probability of an event occurring. The formula for calculating the bet size is as follows: C = (K * V - 1) / (K - 1), where K represents the bookmaker's odds, V represents the estimated probability of the event, and C represents the coefficient for the bet size.

The Kelly Criterion Betting Strategy

For example, if a bookmaker offers odds of 2.50 on Team 1 winning, and the bettor estimates the probability of the team winning to be 50%, the optimal bet size coefficient would be calculated as (2.50 * 0.5 - 1) / (2.50 - 1) = 0.16 or 16% of the bankroll. The main task for the bettor when using the Kelly Criterion is to assess the probability of the chosen outcome occurring accurately.

D'Alembert Sports Betting Strategy

The D'Alembert strategy is a mathematical model that involves increasing the bet size by the initial stake amount in case of a loss and decreasing it by the same amount in case of a win.

The D'Alembert strategy is suitable for events with odds of at least 2.00.

Bet size, USD Odds Outcome Bankroll Size, USD
100 2.20 lose 900
200 2.40 lose 700
300 2.50 win 1150
200 2.20 win 1390

The D'Alembert strategy can be risky as it increases the bet size after each loss. This progression can lead to larger bets being placed with consecutive losses, which can result in significant financial risk if the losing streak continues. It is crucial for players to carefully consider their bankroll and set limits to mitigate the potential risks associated with this strategy.

Tips from Professionals on Low-Risk Betting Strategies

Here are the tips from the experts at VP-Bet for using low-risk betting strategies:

  • Test each strategy with minimal financial investments: Before committing significant funds, try different strategies with smaller bets to evaluate their effectiveness and adjust them accordingly.
  • Limit your stake to 5-10% of your bankroll: Avoid spending large amounts on a single event. In case of a loss, it could result in a significant loss of funds. By keeping your stakes reasonable, you can better manage your bankroll and minimise risks.
  • Focus on 2-3 sports and select multiple leagues: Concentrate your betting activities on a few you know and have expertise in. Additionally, choose several leagues within those sports to diversify your betting opportunities.
  • Conduct thorough statistical analysis before placing bets: Take the time to analyse relevant statistics, including team performance, head-to-head records, player form, and other relevant factors. This will help you make more informed betting decisions.
  • Avoid low odds below 1.20: Betting on extremely low odds often offers little value and may carry a higher margin for the bookmaker. Look for betting opportunities with more favourable odds that provide a better risk-reward ratio.
  • Read expert predictions: Stay informed by reading expert predictions and analyses. However, use them as a reference point rather than solely relying on them for your betting decisions. Combine expert insights with your analysis for better outcomes.

Which Low-Risk Strategies Are Suitable for Newbies

  • For beginners in sports betting who seek strategies with low risks, minimal financial investments, and limited knowledge of the game, here are some recommendations:
  • Backing the strong side: Conduct a thorough pre-match analysis and identify the absolute favourite in the match. This strategy involves betting on the stronger team or player based on research and assessments.
  • Flat betting: With this strategy, you independently determine the level of risk by betting a fixed percentage (1-5%) of your bankroll. This approach helps you manage your funds more effectively and avoids excessive losses.
  • Arbitrage betting: Arbitrage involves taking advantage of discrepancies in odds offered by different bookmakers. While this strategy can be profitable, some bookmakers may limit or block your account if they detect arbitrage activity.
  • A fixed percentage of bankroll: This strategy entails betting a fixed percentage of your current bankroll for each wager. Maintaining a consistent percentage can protect your bankroll and avoid substantial losses during a losing streak.
  • It's important to note that while these strategies offer lower risks, no strategy can guarantee consistent winnings. Additionally, always gamble responsibly and be aware of the terms and conditions of the bookmakers you choose to engage with.

FAQ

What is a sure bet in sports betting?

A sure bet, also known as an arbitrage bet or sure-win bet, is a betting strategy that guarantees a profit regardless of the outcome of an event. It involves finding discrepancies in odds offered by different bookmakers, allowing you to place bets on all possible outcomes of an event with favourable odds.

How does a sure bet work?

A sure bet works by identifying differences in odds for the same event across multiple bookmakers. By placing bets on all possible outcomes and considering the odds, you can ensure a profit irrespective of the final result. The profit margin is usually tiny, but the strategy aims to minimise risk and guarantee a positive return.

What are the key elements to consider for sure bet opportunities?

When seeking sure bet opportunities, key elements include comparing odds from different bookmakers, ensuring the odds provide a discrepancy that allows for a profitable outcome, and considering any associated costs, such as transaction fees or potential limitations on bet amounts.

Is finding sure bets a common occurrence in sports betting?

Finding sure bets is relatively rare in sports betting, as bookmakers actively adjust their odds to minimise discrepancies and protect their profits. However, opportunities may arise due to differences in bookmakers' opinions or when a significant event or news impacts the odds, creating temporary inconsistencies.

Are there any risks or limitations associated with sure bets?

Sure bets typically involve placing bets on multiple bookmakers simultaneously, increasing transaction costs and potential restrictions on maximum bet amounts. Additionally, odds can change rapidly, reducing or eliminating the sure bet opportunity. Therefore, it is crucial to act quickly and carefully to assess the feasibility and profitability of each sure bet.

Is it legal and accepted to place sure bets?

Sure bets are generally legal and accepted by bookmakers unless explicitly stated otherwise in their terms and conditions. However, some bookmakers may limit or close accounts of individuals frequently engaging in arbitrage betting, which can be seen as exploiting odds discrepancies. It's essential to review the rules and policies of each bookmaker before engaging in sure bet strategies.

How can I identify sure bet opportunities?

 Identifying sure bet opportunities requires meticulous research and monitoring of odds across different bookmakers. Specialised software or websites can help you track and identify potential sure bets by comparing odds. It's essential to stay updated with the latest odds and act swiftly when a sure bet opportunity arises to capitalise on the potential profit.

Comments0

Only authorized users can leave comments.
Sign In
No Comments Yet
Be the pioneer! There are no comments so far, your insightful thoughts could lead the way. Share your perspective!
Bookmakers
Bonuses
Wiki
Tips
News