American football is the most popular sport in the US, surpassing basketball and hockey in prevalence.
Football games attract millions of viewers on television and tens of thousands of fans in stadiums across the US. The sport draws attention with its spectacle, dynamism, and intense passion.
The Super Bowl, the NFL's season finale, attracts around 100 million viewers in the US annually. Other famous tournaments include the NCAA, XFL, CIF, IFL, and NAL.
Bets on American football can be placed at many bookmakers. With a thorough sports analysis and betting strategies, wagers in this discipline can yield profits.
American football is a contact sport. The game involves two teams, each consisting of 11 players.
Competitions occur on a football field that is 120 yards long and 53.3 yards wide. Matches consist of four quarters, each lasting 15 minutes.
The goal of the participants is to score the most points.
Ways to score points:
For each play, the offensive team gets four attempts or downs to advance the ball 10 yards towards the opponent's end zone. If the attempt is successful, the team gets another four chances. If the team fails to advance after four attempts, the ball is turned over to the opponent.
In case of a tie after the completion of the last quarter, the referee will assign extra time or overtime, lasting 10 minutes in the regular season and 15 minutes in the playoffs.
American football is a common discipline in many bookmakers. Features of betting on this sport include:
The quarterback is the team's leader and key offensive player, whose task is to advance the ball forward.
The quarterback's form and skill level largely determines the club's results.
The history of the emergence and formation of the discipline is associated with the development of soccer and rugby. The first American football game was played in 1869 when two teams couldn't agree on whether to play soccer or rugby.
In soccer, the players took the standard round ball, and in rugby, the number of participants was 25 on each side.
American football was even more injury-prone in the early stages of its development. 1905 the Chicago Tribune newspaper reported, "18 football players killed and 159 seriously injured".
In 1912, the game's rules became very similar to the modern ones: 6 points were assigned for a touchdown, the field length was set at 100 yards, and the game time was reduced to 60 minutes.
In 1920, the first season of the National Football League took place, which became the most significant competition in American football.
Betting on this sport is possible in most bookmaking companies. Bookmakers provide detailed listings for the NFL and average listings for other competitions.
Bookmakers offer players to guess the winner of the match. Theoretically, a draw is possible in American football, but due to the peculiarities of the rules, the probability of a draw is extremely low.
Since the introduction of the overtime rule in the NFL in 1974, the likelihood of a draw has been virtually reduced to zero. From 1974 to 2020, there have been only 26 draws in the National Football League, averaging 0 to 2 per season.
The player chooses with what advantage or lag in points the chosen team will finish the match.
Unlike most other sports, the likelihood of handicaps in American football changes nonlinearly.
A late 3-point field goal or a 6-point touchdown with an extra point often determines the outcome.
The most common handicap values in the discipline are -2.5 and +3.5, -6.5 and +7.5.
Considering possible overtime, fans bet on the total number of opponents' points or one side.
The average number of points in matches is 43; due to the peculiarities of scoring, teams rarely score precisely 43 points.
The most common totals in American football are 41 and 44 points.
Bookmakers offer bets on outcomes, totals, and handicaps for quarters and halves. Bets on separate game segments could be more predictable in terms of results.
It's easier for an underdog to win 1 quarter than to finish the meeting with a positive result.
The bookmakers' listings include offers for the first period/match, the first quarter/match, outcome and total, victory with an advantage, who will score points first, the first scoring action, and other additional markets.
For popular games in many bookmakers, you can find additional betting options - touchdowns, fouls, field goals, safeties, and other game indicators.
Bookmakers can give additional markets on individual players' statistics, for example, how many yards the quarterback will gain or whether the football player will be the victim of an interception.
Bookmakers offer long-term offers on the championship results - the Super Bowl winner, the club that will win in the conference or division.
Intelligent betting on American football implies a detailed pre-match analysis taking into account a large number of factors:
When analysing, it's essential to consider the level and form of the quarterbacks. According to statistics, in most cases, the favourites win, but betting on every solid team in the line will lead to losing the betting bankroll.
Betting enthusiasts for American football rarely use game models and prefer to place bets based on comprehensive statistics, results, and form analysis.
Using several popular strategies can increase the profitability of bets in bookmakers.
The Miller mathematical model suggests placing bets on outcomes, totals, or handicaps based on the statistics analysis in the last five matches.
When analysing, players consider two indicators - the offensive rating and the defensive rating. Calculating the offensive and defensive ratings separately for both teams is necessary.
Calculation of the offensive rating:
For example, in the last five games, the team scored 25, 32, 40, 38, and 36 points - totals of 25 and 40 do not participate in the calculations, the average total in the attack: (32 + 38 + 36) / 3 = 35.33.
Calculation of the defensive rating:
For example, in 5 matches, the team's opponents scored 37, 44, 22, 34, and 32 points - totals of 22 and 44 do not participate in the calculation, the average total of the club in defence: (32 + 34 + 37) / 3 = 34.33.
To form a forecast, the fan adds the guests' defensive rating to the hosts' offensive rating and subtracts 20 from the result.
He adds the hosts' defensive rating to the guests' offensive rating and subtracts 20 from the obtained value. With the obtained result, he chooses handicaps, totals, or bets on the outcome in the betting line.
Sometimes the favourite loses with a difference of 7 or 14 points. Players bet on a clean win for the favourite or consider the plus handicap. For the strategy, they chose strong teams with high chances of winning before the start of the match.
It's essential to watch the video broadcast of the match to determine whether the favourite has a chance to make up for the lag.
Professionals recommend combining the strategy with the "Flat" system - fixed bets of 1-5% of the bankroll.
According to the "Doubling Up" strategy, a sports fan sequentially places bets on 1 outcome with odds from 2.00. He increases the amount of each subsequent bet in a loss so much that the first win covers the losses and brings profit.
For the "Doubling Up" game, any identical markets with odds from 2.00 are suitable, for example, you can bet live on the outsider's victory in a quarter or pre-match on the total more or less.
Here are some of our local Nigerian bookmakers that are known for good odds, especially for American football betting:
Profitable bets on American football matches are possible after a comprehensive pre-match analysis.
During the sports analysis, it is additionally essential to consider the form and level of the quarterbacks, weather conditions, and the factor of the home stadium.
Using the Miller model, strategies on the losing favourite and "Doubling Up" will help to make a profit.
The point spread is a number set by oddsmakers to handicap the favourite team and give the underdog team a theoretical advantage. When betting on the point spread, you can either bet on the favourite to win by more than the spread or the underdog to lose by less than the spread.
The over/under, also known as the total, is the combined score of both teams in a game. Bookmakers set a number, and bettors can wager on whether the total score will be over or under that number.
A teaser bet is a parlay bet where you can adjust the point spread or total in your favour. Teasers allow you to move the spread in your favour by specific points, but it also reduces the potential payout.
Prop bets, short for proposition bets, are wagers placed on specific outcomes or events within a game. These can include individual player performance, team statistics, or even unique occurrences during the game, such as the outcome of the coin toss.
Live betting, also known as in-play betting, allows you to place bets on a game while it is in progress. You can wager on various aspects of the game, such as the next team to score, the outcome of the next drive, or the player to score the next touchdown.
A futures bet is a long-term bet placed on an event that will happen in the future, such as the Super Bowl winner or the season's MVP. These bets are usually made before the season starts and offer the potential for high payouts.
A parlay bet is a single bet that combines multiple selections into one wager. All selections must be correct for the parlay to win. Parlays offer the potential for higher payouts but come with higher risk since all selections must be correct.
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