Our recent Madrid Masters victor, the unmatched Andrey Rublev, will play in the 1st round of Roland-Garros against Japan's Taro Daniel. The strength of the opponents is unequal, which means we expect the Russian to overcome the Asian tennis player without much difficulty, also adapting to the clay court in France.
Rublev's main objectives this season are, of course, the Grand Slams, where he needs to be a full-fledged contender for the trophy. Let's not forget about the Olympic Games in Paris, which are non-competitive compared to the Grand Slams.
Rublev hasn’t been consistently good this season; however, he has shown success in three out of the eleven tournaments played. Initially, Andrey managed to win Hong Kong (250) on hard court, and later he reached the quarter-finals in Melbourne, where he was outplayed by Jannik Sinner. Following some minor successes, the clay season began with failures at the Monte Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open, which led to expectations that his subsequent tournaments on the clay court would be disastrous. This assumption, though, was wrong. In Madrid, Rublev navigated tough matches, even defeating Carlos Alcaraz, and edged Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final, winning his second career "Masters 1000" title. The Russian himself complained about feeling unwell throughout the tournament in Madrid. Moving on to Rome (1000), Rublev was less successful, barely passing Marcos Giron in the 1st round before losing to France's Alexandre Muller.
It’s uncertain if Andrey has physically recovered from the Masters for Roland-Garros, but the match against Taro Daniel will reveal whether the Russian tennis player was able to rest and recuperate before the clay court Grand Slam.
The Japanese player knows how to perform on clay, but the past few seasons have been unsuccessful for Taro on the clay court. Conversely, he showed decent performances on hard courts.
Last year, Taro did well in the American "Masters 1000" tournaments and had successful runs in three Challenger events at the tail end of the tennis season, winning one of them. These results, however, weren’t enough to push him into the top 80 of the ATP world rankings.
Regarding the current year, Taro had a strong start, reaching the final match of the Auckland tournament, but Alejandro Tabilo didn’t let him claim the trophy. Following that, the Japanese player experienced a decline in his performance, struggling even in Challengers.
Playing against Andrey Rublev, Taro won't be able to play his usual game because the skill of the Russian tennis player will outweigh Taro's style and counter-attack abilities. Additionally, reviewing Taro's previous matches, it's evident that he frequently made errors in straightforward rallies, suggesting that the Japanese player hasn’t significantly improved the clay court and may struggle against Rublev. It’s clear that Taro will be relying on Rublev's potential lapses, as he will find it challenging to manage the game on his own.
A while back, when Andrey was performing at an average level, Taro managed to beat him. But as the Russian’s game improved significantly, Taro remained at his previous level and began losing to Rublev. Their last match was in 2022 on clay in Belgrade, where Taro was defeated in two sets.
I’m betting on TU 29.5 games. This match shouldn’t be too challenging for Rublev and is expected to be a successful outing.
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