Holger Rune - Roman Safiullin predictions and free betting tips [06/01/2024]

The ATP 250 semi-finals are kicking off in Brisbane. We begin with the clash between young Dane Holger Rune and Russia's Roman Safiullin. At first glance there is a firm favourite, with most considering the Viking as the contender for the final, and perhaps even the title, yet the well-forming Russian can put up a good game against the young Dane.

Holger Rune

Rune had an incredibly good run in 2022 and many believed he would continue his success into 2023, but the Dane only managed to lift a solitary clay court trophy in Munich and missed out on many other titles. Rune is beginning to gauge his capabilities and realises that his ambition to win Grand Slam titles or collect them like Djokovic or Cortese far outweigh his actual skills. The Dane's technique has yet to become unshakeable against trophy hunters.

Last season, Rune reached the French Open quarter-finals, then lost in the finals of two prestigious clay-court competitions in Monte Carlo and Rome, unfortunately losing to Russian players on both occasions. There were numerous semi-finals he made it to, hence counting them isn't worth the trouble. In a nutshell, the Viking hovered around big titles last season, but managed to secure only one - at the clay-court ATP 250 tournament in Munich.

The New Year started for Rune in Brisbane with hard-earned victories, even though he was almost the complete favourite in all matches. He struggled in a few sets against Max Purcell and Alexander Chevchenko, yet he performed admirably during the crucial sets. Against James Duckworth, his first serve wasn't up to par, but when it did land correctly, the Dane nearly always won the point, leaving only one break point for the Aussie which was in the opening game when Rune led 5:2 and served for the set. Safiullin skillfully rallies, trying to serve with power and spin, so Rune will have to pull amply to at least take the initiative in this match.

Roman Safiullin

In the previous season, Safiullin started to strive for major titles and unexpectedly stepped up, though many assumed he wouldn't accomplish much on the main tour while not fully realising his potential on minor tournaments. If anyone thought so, it was a misconception, because last season Roman reached the 1/16 finals on the clay Masters in Rome and Madrid, and even played in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, however, losing to Italian Janik Sinner (3:1 sets). Safiullin made it to his first hard-court final in Chengdu, where he could have easily defeated Alexander Zverev, but the German managed to recoup in time, trailing (6:7;0:2) during the match.

In the current season, Safiullin is set to win his first main tour title and may even achieve success in Hong Kong. The draw of the tournament in China was enormously tough for Roman, however he defeated Ben Shelton, not showcasing his best statistics. His most incredible win was against Alexei Popyrin, who led 5:2 in the decisive set and had 5 match points, but still lost the tie-break (3:7) to Safiullin. The encounter with Matteo Arnaldi in the quarter-finals was easier for the Russian, nevertheless, a lot of long games drained Roman's energy, but he pulled through despite being extremely exhausted.

Holger Rune is a challenging opponent, capable of playing aggressively, sometimes the Viking prefers a flatter game hitting powerfully. It will be tough for the Russian, who we are unsure has physically recovered after the series of intensely tough matches.

Match forecast: Holger Rune - Roman Safiullin

I'm backing the Dane in this one, who may not be showing superb tennis in Brisbane, but he certainly has recovered faster muscularly after his match against James Duckworth. Indeed, he is the favourite against Roman who only managed to defeat Popyrin on sheer will, and previously struggled against Shelton and spent a significant amount of energy to win against Arnaldi. This may leave the Russian scanty for the semi-final match against Rune.