Genoa - Bologna predictions and free betting tips [24/05/2024]

On Friday, 24 May Genoa will host Bologna in the 38th round of the Italian Serie A. Last weekend, Thiago Motta's side squandered a three-goal lead to draw with Juventus, while Genoa suffered a 1:0 defeat to Roma. 

Genoa

Genoa has had an excellent campaign after their promotion and has avoided the relegation fight. With 46 points in 37 rounds, the home side is comfortably positioned in 11th place on Serie A's table. Despite having no motivation in recent weeks, Alberto Gilardino's men continued to delight their fans with good performances. However, last weekend, they narrowly lost to Roma (1:0) due to a solitary goal by Romelu Lukaku in the second half, ending their impressive three-match unbeaten run (2 wins and 1 draw), including a 3:3 draw with Milan. Moreover, Genoa performs quite well at home, having accumulated 27 points in 18 home matches (10th best in the division, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded).

Additionally, they have not conceded more than one goal per game in their last four home matches and have scored in eight of their previous nine encounters at Luigi Ferraris. The home side will be without injured Matturro, while Brazilian forward Junior Messias is doubtful for the upcoming match. Icelandic striker Gudmundsson (14 goals and 3 assists) was benched last round but could return to the starting line-up alongside Italian Retegui (7 goals and 2 assists). Therefore, Caleb Ekuban is expected to strengthen the side in the second half, while Strootman and Frendrup will be key in midfield. The defensive trio of Vogliacco, Vasquez, and De Winter will likely remain unchanged.

Bologna

Bologna has surprisingly qualified for the Champions League with an overall strong campaign. Thiago Motta's team occupies the 3rd spot in Serie A, five points clear of 6th place. In their last 17 rounds, Bologna has only lost to new champions Inter (0:1), achieving 10 wins and 6 draws. After a 0:2 victory over Napoli, the Rossoblu squandered a three-goal lead against Juventus last Monday. Calafiori scored twice, and Castro added another goal, but Juventus managed a comeback with goals from Chiesa, Milik, and Yildiz in nine minutes. Uncertainty surrounds Motta's future with Bologna as recent media reports suggest he may have agreed to join Juventus after Allegri's departure. It is important to note that Bologna has conceded only 18 goals away this season, a record only bettered by Inter (9). However, the Rossoblu are just sixth in away points (27 in 18 matches). Key attacking midfielder Ferguson (6 goals and 3 assists) remains sidelined, while striker Zirkzee (11 goals and 4 assists) is doubtful. Defender Soumaoro returned last round. In Zirkzee's absence, young Argentine forward Castro (19) scored and assisted last weekend and is likely to lead the line. Freuler will anchor the midfield, with Posch and Kristiansen occupying the flanks of the defence.

Head-to-Head

The first-round match ended in a 1:1 draw. Bologna has only won once in their last nine encounters.

Prediction: Genoa vs Bologna

With all due respect to Genoa, Bologna is unlikely to slip up again and miss out on the bronze medals. Given that the Griffins are playing without motivation, likely thinking about their forthcoming holidays, while the Rossoblu might be playing their last match under Thiago Motta, my bet is on the visitors to win with a 0 handicap.

Prediction on Total

Bologna has conceded only 18 goals away from home and will not allow the hosts to roam freely in their penalty area. My bet is on Genoa's individual total under 1 goal.