Fiorentina - Napoli predictions and free betting tips [17/05/2024]

On Friday, 17 May, at 37 Tour of Italy's Serie A, Fiorentina will host Napoli. Last week, the Violets advanced to the Conference League final by beating Monza 2-1, while the Partenopei are experiencing massive difficulties and risk missing out on European competition.

Fiorentina

Fiorentina are in 8th place in Serie A with a game in hand and a 2-point lead over Napoli. However, they must remain vigilant, as they are only six points away from the 7th place, which grants access to the Europa League. After three unbeaten games (2 wins and 1 draw), the Tuscans were defeated 2-1 in Verona but secured a 2-1 victory over Monza on Monday, thanks to goals from Nicolas Gonzalez and Arthur Melo. In the Conference League, the Lilywhites defeated Brugge (4-3 on aggregate) and will face Olympiacos in the final. Notably, Fiorentina have the seventh-highest home points tally (34 points in 18 matches).

Furthermore, they've scored and conceded in each of their last seven Serie A home games and haven't kept a clean sheet since December. The Violets will miss winger Sottil (2 goals in Serie A) for the rest of the season due to injury. Key players Ikone (3 goals) and Belotti (1 goal) are also absent. Argentinian winger Nico Gonzalez (10 goals), who scored against Verona, is expected to spearhead the attack this Friday, along with compatriot Beltran (6 goals). The coaching staff might delay squad rotation, considering the team has a week's break after this match.

Napoli

This season, Napoli has disappointed their fans, languishing at the bottom of the fight for European spots. The 2023 Italian champions are 9th in Serie A, trailing Fiorentina by 2 points. Recently, the Partenopei have hit a slump, with only one win, five draws, and three losses in their last nine games. They drew with Roma (2-2) and Udinese (1-1) but lost 2-0 at home to Bologna last weekend after Dan Ndoye and Stefan Posch scored in the first 12 minutes, and Politano missed a penalty. The coaching staff will be concerned about Napoli conceding in each of their previous 15 Serie A matches.

Napoli performs well away from home, ranking 4th in away points (27 points in 18 matches), scoring 29 goals and conceding only 19. Playmaker Zielinski remains sidelined due to injury, and there’s uncertainty about the participation of forward Raspadori (5 goals) and Belgian Dendoncker. As often this season, the attacking trio will consist of Politano (8 goals and 6 assists), Kvaratskhelia (10 goals and 6 assists), and Victor Osimhen (15 goals and 3 assists). Winter signing Ngonge (1 goal) is ready to bolster the attack from the bench in the second half, while Rrahmani and Jesus will anchor the central defence.

Head-to-Head

In December, Napoli under Rudi García lost 3-1 to Fiorentina but avenged themselves with a 3-0 win in the Italian Super Cup semi-finals in January. Napoli haven't lost at Fiorentina's home since April 2018.

Fiorentina vs Napoli Prediction

Napoli are in a deep crisis and winless in their last five games. The hosts, by contrast, have secured three wins in their last five matches and generally show quality over the distance. The support of the home crowd should give the Lilywhites extra strength, so I'll back a home win with a 0 handicap.