On Saturday, 30th December, within the framework of the 18th round of the Italian Serie A, Juventus will host Roma at home. Separated by 12 points in the league standings, both clubs won their matches before Christmas: the Turin-based side triumphed over Frosinone 2:1, while Roma defeated Napoli 2:0.
Juventus: Szczesny; Gatti, Bremer, Danilo; McKennie, Miretti, Locatelli, Rabiot, Kostic; Chiesa, Vlahovic.
Roma: Patricio; Mancini, Llorente, Ndicka; Kristensen, Cristante, Paredes, Bove, Zalewski; El Shaarawy; Lukaku.
The match will be held in Turin at the Allianz Stadium.
More than two seasons have passed since Juventus last won the title in Italy, an anomaly for a club of this calibre. However, this campaign the 'Old Lady' have every reason for optimism: they currently occupy 2nd place in Serie A's standings, lagging just 5 points behind the leader - Inter Milan. Under Massimiliano Allegri's guidance, they are once again confidently grinding down opponents, having lost only once in September.
Furthermore, the 'bianconeri' have won 3 of the last 4 matches against: Monza (2:1), Napoli (1:0), Genoa (1:1), and Frosinone (2:1) last weekend, with Dusan Vlahovic's goal in the 81st minute deciding all. In the last 13 home matches, Turinese have conceded more than once – this is the best result for the club since 2019.
Roma remains outside the top 4, but is in close proximity to a Champions League berth. Currently sitting in 6th place overall, José Mourinho's side is trailing 4th-placed Bologna by just 5 points. Indeed, Roman side missed the chance to join the top four, sharing points with Fiorentina (1:1) and losing to Bologna (0:2) a couple of weeks ago. Fortunately for them, last weekend the 'giallorossi' came out on top against Napoli with a score of 2:0 – Lorenzo Pellegrini and Romelu Lukaku scoring the two goals. However, popular opinion suggests this was largely due to second-half dismissals of Matteo Politano and Victor Osimhen.
During 2023, Romans scored 26 times in the final 15 minutes of Serie A games, including in 9 of the last 11 matches, setting a club record. However, Rome-based club has already lost nine times on the road, which is the third-worst record in the last four decades. Meanwhile, Romans finished second in their Europa League group and will face Feyenoord in the tournament's playoffs.
Juventus has won 10 of the last 12 home matches against Roma in Serie A. Last season, the teams drew 1:1 in Turin, while giallorossi emerged victorious 0:1 in Rome.
The hosts this season have come closer than ever to the leadership in the Serie A standings, and considering that Inter lost points yesterday, Turinese simply cannot afford to miss the chance to capitalize on a competitor's hiccup. Mourinho's side performs much worse on the road than at home and cannot count on injured Dybala. I expect a hard-fought victory for 'bianconeri'.
A 1:0 victory is the favorite result for Juve in this season, and a tactical battle between Allegri and Mourinho is unlikely to turn into a goal fest. Thus, I'm betting on a total of under 2.5 goals.
Both teams average over 5 corners per game, so a bet on over 9.5 total corners seems safe.
Given the heated rivalry and the teams' motivation in the standings, I don't foresee avoiding a real showdown on the pitch – I'm betting on over 4.5 total bookings.
I'll place a bet on an exact score of 1:0 in favor of Juventus.
# | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | G | PTS | |
1 | Inter | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8:2 | 7 | |
2 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6:0 | 7 | |
3 | Torino | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:3 | 7 | |
4 | Udinese | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:2 | 7 | |
5 | Verona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:3 | 6 | |
6 | Napoli | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 6 | |
7 | Empoli | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 5 | |
8 | Lazio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 | |
9 | Parma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:4 | 4 | |
10 | Genoa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3:4 | 4 | |
11 | Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 | |
12 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 5:6 | 3 | |
13 | Lecce | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 1:6 | 3 | |
14 | AC Milan | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5:6 | 2 | |
15 | Monza | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2:3 | 2 | |
16 | AS Roma | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 1:2 | 2 | |
17 | Cagliari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 1:2 | 2 | |
18 | Bologna | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2:5 | 2 | |
19 | Venezia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1:4 | 1 | |
20 | Como | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1:5 | 1 | |
1 | Inter | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 | |
2 | Udinese | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 | |
3 | Napoli | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 | |
4 | Juventus | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 4 | |
5 | Lazio | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 4 | |
6 | Parma | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 4 | |
7 | Torino | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 | |
8 | Verona | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 | |
9 | Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 3 | |
10 | Fiorentina | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:2 | 2 | |
11 | Cagliari | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 | |
12 | Bologna | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:2 | 2 | |
13 | Empoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 | |
14 | Genoa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 1 | |
15 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:2 | 1 | |
16 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
17 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 | |
18 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 | |
19 | Venezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 | |
20 | Como | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
1 | Torino | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 4 | |
2 | Empoli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 4 | |
3 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | |
4 | Verona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 | |
5 | Genoa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 | |
6 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 | |
7 | Monza | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:2 | 2 | |
8 | AS Roma | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 2 | |
9 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:2 | 1 | |
10 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 | |
11 | Fiorentina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 | |
12 | AC Milan | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 1 | |
13 | Venezia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 1 | |
14 | Como | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 1 | |
15 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 | |
16 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 | |
17 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 | |
18 | Lecce | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 | |
19 | Cagliari | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 | |
20 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
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