Arsenal - Aston Villa predictions and free betting tips [14/04/2024]

On Sunday, 14th April, Arsenal face Aston Villa in the 33rd round of the Premier League. The Gunners drew with Bayern Munich in the first match of the Champions League quarter-final on Tuesday. In contrast, the Birmingham side beat Lille two days later in the Conference League. 

Arsenal

Chasing the title since their 'invincible' 2004 campaign, Arsenal are currently at the top of the table, with as many points as Liverpool. Mikel Arteta's charges seemed to drop out of the race after a series of disappointing performances in December. However, since January, the Gunners haven't suffered a single defeat in the domestic championship (10 wins and 1 draw). Following the international break in March, the red and whites managed to draw against Manchester City - 0-0 - followed by victories over Luton Town (2-0) and Brighton last weekend (0-3). This week, Arsenal drew with Bayern Munich in front of their home fans in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final (2-2): Bukayo Saka put the capital side ahead early on, but the Germans replied with goals from Serge Gnabry and Harry Kane - only substitute Trossard leveling the score.

It's worth noting that Arsenal are third in points garnered on their patch: 38 in 15 home clashes with 38 goals and 13 conceded. The Londoners' squad will be lacking Dutch defender Jurrien Timber, who is out for the season with a severe injury. Otherwise, Mikel Arteta can count on an optimal lineup this Sunday; Declan Rice (6 goals and 5 assists) and Odegaard (7 goals and 6 assists) will undoubtedly appear in midfield, while the attacking line will be formed by winger Saka (14 goals and 8 assists), German Havertz (9 goals and 5 assists) and Brazilian Martinelli. Oleksandr Zinchenko replaced struggling Kiviora at half-time against Bayern, but this time it might be Takehiro Tomiyasu to be deployed on the left flank.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa are still battling for a Champions League spot and are currently 5th in the Premier League, having earned as many points (60) as Tottenham. Unfortunately, in recent weeks, Unai Emery's charges have not looked their best: in the last five rounds, they garnered one win, two draws, and suffered two losses. After losing 4:1 to Manchester City, the team last weekend settled for a home draw (3:3) against Brentford. Like Arsenal, the yellow-blues performed in the European competitions this week, where they barely beat Lille in the first leg of the Conference League quarter-final (2:1). Ollie Watkins clinched an early lead for the English, just before McGinn doubled the Birmingham side's advantage. However, Bafode Diakite pulled one back to keep the intrigue alive for the return match in France.

Villa are fourth in aggregate points on the road: 25 in 16 away games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. Like in recent weeks, Villa's roster on Sunday is marked by several notable absentees. Team captain Mings, key defender Cash, holding midfielder Kamara, and wingers Ramsey and Buendia continue to be in the treatment room. Ollie Watkins (18 goals and 10 assists) scored a brace last weekend and will undoubtedly spearhead the attack at the Emirates, backed by promising winger Rodgers (1 goal and 1 assist). The visitors' midfield will consist of McGinn (6 goals and 4 assists) and Douglas Luiz (9 goals and 5 assists), while wingers Bailey (8 goals and 8 assists) and Diabi (5 goals and 7 assists) will add creativity on the flanks.

Head-to-Head

The first-round fixture at Villa Park concluded in a minimal 1:0 victory for the Birmingham side, yet prior to that, the Gunners had triumphed four times in a row.

Arsenal - Aston Villa match prediction

Having two extra days for recovery after their European battles, Arsenal will be in far better physical condition than the guests. The Gunners - motivated by their pursuit of the championship title - simply can't afford to slip up. Otherwise, they will be trailing City by two points. Considering Villa's personnel issues and Emery's charges' recent results, it's reasonable to back a Gunners' win with a -1.5 handicap.