Palmeiras - Corinthians predictions and free betting tips [01/07/2024]

Today in the 13th round of the Brazilian Serie A, Palmeiras will host Corinthians. The green-and-whites have slipped to fourth place in the standings after a 3:0 defeat by Fortaleza last week, while the visitors drew 1:1 with Cuiaba and are entrenched in the relegation zone at 18th place.

Expected Line-ups

Palmeiras: Weverton; Rocha, Naves, Murilo; Mayke, John John, Ze Rafael, Piquerez; Veiga, Paulista; Lopez.
Corinthians: Donelli; Matheuzinho, Kaka, Caetano, Hugo; Bidon, Raniele; Garro, Raul, Wesley; Alberto.

Palmeiras

June was a calm month for Abel Ferreira's charges until Fortaleza upset the green-and-white fans last week. The 3:0 fiasco was Palmeiras' biggest disappointment in the championship since the 3:0 loss to Flamengo last November. Now, the hosts trail by four points from the top spot, having slipped to fourth place. Additionally, the three goals conceded account for a third of the goals Palmeiras has let in this season, with Internacional having a better defensive record (nine goals conceded). An interesting fact: all seven of Palmeiras' victories in the national championship this season were achieved when they opened the scoring, while their three losses began with the green-and-whites conceding first. 
The hosts rank 11th in terms of points scored on home turf: 10 points in six home matches, seven goals scored, and five conceded. Fans will be pleased that their favourites are scoring an average of 2.5 goals per game in June (the best rate in the division). Palmeiras might be without Bruno Rodrigues, who is recovering from knee surgery, while Romulo and Lazaro sustained thigh injuries. Meanwhile, Rony and Anibal Moreno will be suspended due to accumulating yellow cards in the previous round. Gustavo Gomez (Paraguay) and Richard Rios (Colombia) are still away at Copa America, so the attacking trio will consist of Veiga, Paulista, and Lopez.

Corinthians

In the 13 opening rounds, the club from Tatuape has managed only one victory (3:0 over Fluminense in crisis), accumulating just nine points and being entrenched in the relegation zone. Only two points separate them from Vasco da Gama in 16th place, so it's still early to panic. However, scoring goals has been a real issue for the black-and-white team: in 2024, they have the second-worst goal tally among all Brazilian Serie A teams (nine). Antonio Oliveira's charges drew 1:1 with Cuiaba last week: Marlon put the yellow-green ahead in the first half, but Mateus Bidu equalised in the 85th minute. In fact, in three of the last four home matches where Corinthians conceded first, the team managed to draw level. 
The visitors have not won in six consecutive matches across all competitions, despite achieving four clean-sheet victories in five matches in May. Pedro Henrique and Fagner will be absent due to thigh issues; Carlos Miguel injured his ankle, and Diego Palacios will not return until September due to an ACL injury. Angel Romero is with the Paraguay national team at Copa America, and Felix Torres also continues his campaign with Ecuador at the tournament. Although Mateus Bidu scored last round, he is unlikely to start – the forward line will be led by talented Yuri Alberto.

Head-to-head Meetings

These teams met earlier in February, ending in a 2:2 draw. Moreover, Corinthians have failed to defeat Palmeiras in the last seven matches.

Palmeiras vs Corinthians Prediction

The hosts were a shadow of themselves against Fortaleza last week and are determined to redeem themselves to the home crowd this time. The gap from leaders Flamengo is not yet critical, so the green-and-whites need to win tonight at all costs. Corinthians are in deep crisis and have not won since the end of May. I do not believe in an upset and am betting on a routine victory for the favourites.

Total Goals Prediction

Palmeiras scored, on average, more than two goals per game in June, and against Corinthians' crisis defence, the green-and-whites certainly won't be stingy with goals. I bet on the individual total over 1.5 for the home team.