Sao Paulo - Bahia predictions and free betting tips [30/06/2024]

On Sunday, 30 June, as part of the 13th round of the Brazilian Serie A, São Paulo will host Bahia on their home turf. The hosts are just one point away from the top six, while the visitors are in second place in the standings and could aim for the top spot with a win.

Stadium

The match will take place in São Paulo at the Do Morumbi Stadium.

São Paulo

Following a disappointing 11th place finish last season, São Paulo have made a respectable start to the new campaign, collecting 18 points from their first 12 matches with five wins, three draws, and four losses. Last Thursday, the Tricolors ended a four-match winless streak with a 2-1 victory over Criciúma – Alisson scored within the first minute, and Luciano doubled the lead midway through the first half.

This win was the third for Luis Zubeldia's side in the last four home matches, with the only failures coming against Cuiabá and Fortaleza. Notably, São Paulo rank ninth in points acquired at home (10 points gained, 7 goals scored, 5 conceded). Overall, São Paulo struggles in attack, failing to score in two of their last five matches and conceding 14 goals – the worst record in the top 9 of the Serie A standings (tied with Bragantino). 

Bahia

Bahia have started the season in fine fashion and could even top the standings if they earn at least a point on Sunday evening (Flamengo face Cruzeiro later). The visitors suffered a failure in the opening round against Internacional but then went eight matches unbeaten before losing to the leaders a couple of weeks ago. A few days ago, Rogério Ceni's side secured their seventh victory of the current campaign, defeating Vasco da Gama 2-1, with Oscar Estupinan scoring in the 86th minute and Tassiano scoring earlier.

However, despite the positive mood in the club, the coaching staff is concerned about the away results, as the red-blues have won only one of their six matches on the road this season (tenth place in the overall standings). It is also important to note that Bahia are impressively strong in attack, having scored 20 goals in 12 rounds – the best in the division, tied with Flamengo. 

Head-to-Head Meetings

Last season, São Paulo did not lose to Bahia, drawing at home (0-0) and taking all three points in the return match in November (0-1).

Prediction for São Paulo vs Bahia

Bahia have had a very promising start to the season and are close to the top of the table, but the fans cannot ignore the team's away results: just one win in six away matches. São Paulo, although not in the best form, regularly collect points at home. The hosts are motivated to break into the top six, so I'm taking a risk on their victory on Sunday evening.

Prediction for Total Goals

In none of the previous four head-to-heads have these teams exchanged goals. If ever there was a time to break this trend, it is now: both teams average 1.5 goals per match this season.

Prediction for Corners

São Paulo will play with the support of home fans and attack more, so it makes sense to back the hosts to win the corner count.

Prediction for Yellow Cards

Both teams are highly motivated from a standings perspective, so they will go all out on the field. I'm betting on a total of over 4.5 yellow cards.

Prediction for the Final Score

I predict a 2-1 victory for São Paulo.