On Sunday, 30 June, in the 13th round of the Brazilian Serie A, Atlético Mineiro will host Atlético Goianiense at their home ground. The home team recently triumphed over Internacional and climbed into the top ten, while the red and whites have long been entrenched in the relegation zone.
The match will take place in Belo Horizonte at MRV Arena.
Due to a very poor start to the season, Atlético Mineiro, who finished third last year, are currently only tenth in the overall standings with 17 points. A home draw with Fortaleza last week allowed Gabriel Milito's side to break a two-game losing streak, followed by a 2-1 victory over Internacional. After a goalless first half, Cadu and Alan Patrick traded goals, with Romulo delivering the decisive strike in the 97th minute. Noteworthy is that the black and whites conceded eight goals in their two matches against Palmeiras (4-0) and Vitoria (4-2).
In Copa Libertadores, the results were much better: five wins in six group stage rounds, although Atlético were knocked out of the Copa do Brasil in the round of 16 by modest Sport Recife. It is essential to note that the hosts have performed poorly at home, securing just six points in five home games this Serie A season; moreover, Mineiro have failed to keep a clean sheet in six consecutive matches.
Atlético need to escape the relegation zone as soon as possible. A home loss to Criciuma (2-1) in mid-June was the final straw for the management, who sacked head coach Jair Ventura. Despite a two-match unbeaten streak (four points), the club opted for a change. Currently, Anderson Gomes is the interim manager. Under his guidance, the red and whites drew with Cuiabá (0-0) and Grêmio (1-1), but have only one victory in their last six rounds – a 2-1 win over struggling Fluminense.
Vasco da Gama, who sit one spot above, have the same number of points (10), meaning the battle for top-flight survival is still on. It's also worth noting that the visitors have performed decently on the road, earning eight points in six away matches (the seventh-best in Serie A).
The last encounter between these teams was in September 2022, with Atlético Mineiro securing a 2-0 away victory. Moreover, the black and whites have won six of the last seven duels.
Atlético Mineiro haven't impressed at the start of the season, but the team has significant potential to improve their results – their current two-game unbeaten streak is proof of that. Additionally, the black and whites have historically fared well against Goianiense, who remain in the relegation zone and are still without a head coach. I don't expect miracles from the underdogs here and back Milito's men for a home triumph.
Mineiro have been both prolific in scoring (17) and conceding (15) this campaign. Clearly, the hosts will prefer an open game and attack a lot, so I back the total goals over 2.
Expect the hosts to take the initiative from the start and camp in the opponent's half. I'll risk an individual total over 5.5 corners for Mineiro.
Both teams commit a lot of fouls and average more than three bookings per game. I back the total yellow cards over 5.5.
I'll stake on a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Atlético Mineiro.
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