Austria - Turkey predictions and free betting tips [02/07/2024]

Austria and Turkey will clash in the Round of 16 of the European Championship on 2 July at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig.

Probable Line-ups

Austria: Patrick Pentz (GK), Stefan Posch, Maximilian Wöber, Philipp Lienhart, Alexander Prass, Nicolas Seiwald, Florian Grillitsch, Patrick Wimmer, Marcel Sabitzer, Romano Schmid, Marko Arnautovic (C)

Turkey: Mert Günok (GK), Mert Müldür, Abdülkerim Bardakçı, Merih Demiral, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, İsmet Yüksek, Salih Özcan, Arda Güler, Orkun Kökçü, Kenan Yıldız, Barış Alper Yılmaz.

Austria's Line-up for the Play-offs

Ralf Rangnick's team, amid a sea of mundane and predictable favourites, stands out as fresh and energetic. Ralf employs a 4-2-3-1 formation with constant pressing and lineup changes.

Goalkeeper

Patrick Pentz (Brøndby) played all group matches and was reliable, but he did not showcase world-class saves. He is a solid first choice, but also one of the weakest links due to his lack of experience in major matches.

Defence

Each match featured a different pair of central defenders. In the first round, Maximilian Wöber (with an own goal) and Kevin Danso played. Against Poland, Gernot Trauner scored a goal and paired with Philipp Lienhart. It seems Lienhart convinced Rangnick, and he played alongside the more stable Wöber against the Netherlands. Stefan Posch consistently played on the flank, while Alexander Prass alternated flanks with Maximilian Wöber, making it unclear who will start tomorrow. Trauner is injured, and his condition is unknown.

Midfield

The main contenders for the central midfield trio are Christoph Baumgartner, Konrad Laimer, Nicolas Seiwald, and team leader Marcel Sabitzer. The latter two have played the most. Florian Grillitsch often appeared on the wing. Against the Netherlands, Romano Schmid played on the right and immediately scored. Patrick Wimmer performed well but will miss the next match due to an accumulation of yellow cards. Rangnick has ample options in midfield. 

Attack

Veteran and top scorer Marko Arnautovic found a new life and outperformed Michael Gregoritsch. Overall, Austria has few forward options, lacking a nominal second striker.

Turkey's Line-up for the Play-offs

Vincenzo Montella frequently rotated the squad, benefiting from a deep player pool. The formation is 4-2-3-1. Twenty players have already featured in Euro, considering the importance of all matches.

Goalkeeper

Mert Günok played the first match, then surprisingly got replaced by Altay Bayındır against Portugal, where he performed poorly, conceding a bizarre own goal with Sami Aydın. Günok returned for the third match and is likely to start tomorrow.

Defence

Samet Aydın and Abdülkerim Bardakçı would likely be the starting central defenders, but Aydın is suspended due to card accumulation, to be replaced by Merih Demiral, who played well in the last match against the Czech Republic. Ferdi Kadıoğlu is the main left-back and has been solid in all matches, as has the goal-scoring Mert Müldür. Veteran Zeki Çelik is unlikely to start tomorrow.

Midfield

The loss of Hakan Çalhanoğlu due to card accumulation is a significant problem for Montella. Korkut Ayhan and Salih Özcan are likely to play in the holding roles, while Orkun Kökçü, Kerem Yıldız, and Arda Güler will compete for starting spots with Barış Artyukoğlu. 

Attack

Burak Yılmaz, namesake of the top Turkish forward in recent years, is indispensable and has not been substituted.

Austria

Austria has showcased excellent performances at Euro 2024, finishing first in their group, a significant achievement for the team. Their tournament opened with a setback—a 1-0 loss to France due to an own goal by Wöber—but this did not break the team's spirit. In the following matches, Austria bounced back with victories over Poland and the Netherlands, 3-1 and 3-2, respectively, displaying solid attacking play and organised pressing, efficiently launching counterattacks.

Head coach Ralf Rangnick introduced fresh tactical ideas focused on active pressing and field mobility, which significantly improved the team’s results. Austria performed excellently in one of the tournament's toughest groups. The contribution of young players like Posch, Seiwald, and Schmid, alongside veterans like Grillitsch, Arnautovic, Sabitzer, and Laimer, is noteworthy.

The team has proven they can compete with top squads, even without big stars. Every player executes Rangnick’s strategy with precision and boasts excellent physical preparation. The attacking potential, evident in matches against Poland and the Netherlands, where Austria scored a combined six goals, deserves special mention.

Turkey

Turkey successfully completed the Euro 2024 group stage, securing second place in their group, a deserved outcome. Under Vincenzo Montella’s leadership, the team began the tournament with a 3-1 victory over Georgia, displaying high-level attacking play but unstable defence. However, the next match against a strong Portugal team exposed issues in the holding zone and among central defenders—Turkey lost 3-0. Despite this loss, the Turkish squad recovered to secure a crucial 2-1 victory over the Czech Republic in their final group match, ensuring their progression to the knockout stages.

Montella brought a fresh approach to the team, enabling Turkey to showcase dynamic and effective football. The attacking line, led by the standout player Güler, excelled by creating and converting numerous opportunities, which underpinned their success. Montella’s tactical flexibility allowed Turkey to adapt to various opponents and game situations.

Head-to-Head Meetings

Austria and Turkey have faced each other eight times since 2001. Turkey claimed victory in four of those matches, Austria won twice, and two encounters ended in a draw. In the 2002 World Cup qualifiers, Turkey triumphed with 5-0 and 1-0 results, while in the Euro 2012 qualifiers, the teams played to a 2-0 Turkish win and a 0-0 draw. In friendly matches, Turkey won 4-2 in 2008, Austria won 2-0 in 2012, and Turkey again came out on top 2-1 in 2016.

The most recent encounter in March 2024 saw Austria deliver a crushing 6-1 victory. In March, Grethoritch scored a hat-trick for Austria, with Baumgartner and Schlager also finding the net, while Turkey's goal came from Çalhanoğlu. In their last eight matches, Turkey won five times, Austria twice, with one draw.

Austria vs Turkey Match Prediction

Rangnick’s team exemplifies discipline and tactics, while Turkey is a team with fluctuating performance and notable defensive questions. I expect Austria to capitalise on their chances as Turkey will struggle under such pressing. My bet is on an Austrian victory.

Total Goals Bet

I would risk placing a bet on total goals over 2.5, considering Turkey's weak defence and Austria's potent pressing. Both teams are capable of delivering an exciting match.