Brazil - Colombia predictions and free betting tips [03/07/2024]

On Wednesday, 3 July, in the 3rd round of the group stage of the Copa America, the Brazilian national team will face Colombia. A 4-1 victory over Paraguay moved the Selecao to second place in Group D, while the Colombians have already secured their place in the quarterfinals thanks to a dominant 3-0 victory over Costa Rica.

Expected Line-ups

Brazil: Alisson; Danilo, Beraldo, Marquinhos, Arana; Guimarães, Gomez; Savio, Pereira, Rodrygo; Endrick. 

For many football fans, the Brazilian team is synonymous with names such as Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Pelé, Kaká, Robinho, and of course, the top scorer in the Selecao's history – Neymar (128 caps, 79 goals), who has been recuperating from a severe injury for the past six months. However, the current Brazilian squad for this Copa America is considerably less star-studded: notable names include Raphinha (Barcelona), Vinicius (Real Madrid), and Rodrygo (Real Madrid), while experienced players like Casemiro (Manchester United), Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal), and Richarlison (Tottenham) were not called up.

Goalkeeper Ederson (Manchester City) sustained an injury towards the end of the season, cementing Alisson's place between the posts. Marquinhos (PSG) and Militao (Real Madrid) anchor the defence, with Danilo and Arana supporting from the flanks. In the match against Paraguay, Girona winger Savio and West Ham midfielder Lucas Paquetá scored, and both aim to start. Midfielder Wendell received a yellow card in the last round and risks suspension, so the coaching staff may prefer Guimarães or Gomez in central midfield.

Colombia: Vargas; Muñoz, Sánchez, Cuesta, Machado; Castaño, Uribe, Arias; Sinisterra, Durán, Díaz.

Colombia is missing several players due to injuries: Poveda (Sheffield Wednesday), Cabal (Verona), and Cristian Borja (Braga), as well as midfielder Barrios (Zenit), wingback Cuadrado (Inter Milan), forwards Cazierra (Zenit), and Andrés Gómez (Real Salt Lake) were not called up by the coaching staff. Nevertheless, the yellow-and-blue can rely on their playmaker James Rodríguez, currently with São Paulo after an unsuccessful move from Al-Rayyan to Olympiacos, who has already provided three assists in this Copa America.

The squad also includes Borja (Internacional), the future national team star Luis Díaz (Liverpool), Sánchez (Galatasaray), and Mojica (Villarreal). Central defender Lucumí (Bologna) had to be substituted for Yerry Mina (Cagliari) in the first round, and it's uncertain whether Lucumí will return to the squad after rehabilitation. John Córdoba (Krasnodar), Lerma, Richard Ríos, Luis Díaz, and Muñoz are responsible for creativity in attack, although the first three are on the verge of suspension with one more yellow card.

Stadium

The match will take place in Santa Clara at Levi's Stadium.

Brazil

Brazil has once again disappointed its fans with a poor start to Copa America, drawing 0-0 with Costa Rica – a significantly weaker opponent. Consequently, the Selecao entered the second round needing a win, and they delivered: buoyed by a brace from Vinicius, the five-time world champions thrashed Paraguay 4-1. This week, Dorival Júnior's team only needs to avoid defeat to advance to the playoffs for the 14th time in their last 15 continental tournament appearances. Brazil last lost in the group stage of this tournament in 2016, when they were defeated 1-0 by Peru in the final round (followed by elimination). 

The nominal hosts have struggled at the start of the World Cup qualifiers, currently sitting in sixth place and enduring a terrible run of four matches without a win, including three defeats to Uruguay (2-0), Colombia (2-1), and Argentina (1-0). In their last nine matches in all competitions before meeting Paraguay, Brazil won only twice – in a friendly against England at Wembley (0-1) thanks to an Endrick goal and against Mexico (2-3).

Colombia

Colombia made a strong start at Copa America, defeating a solid Paraguay side in the first round (2-1). They then crushed Costa Rica 3-0 with goals from Luis Díaz, Sánchez, and Córdoba. As a result, Colombia has accumulated six points, already qualified for the quarterfinals, and now only needs to avoid defeat to secure first place, surpassing Brazil. Moreover, a victory in the third round would see Néstor Lorenzo's side finish top of the group with nine points for the first time since 2019. 

Unlike Brazil, who have experienced difficulties in recent months, Colombia is potentially the best team on the planet right now: the visitors remain unbeaten since 2 February 2022 – 25 consecutive matches without a loss and 10 wins in a row. Also, it's crucial to note that the yellow-and-blue have scored in their last ten matches, keeping five clean sheets in their previous nine outings.

Head-to-head

The first meeting between these teams dates back to 1945, with Brazil winning decisively (3-0). The Selecao dominated Colombia until 1991, which marked the first victory for the three-time world champions against the future five-time world champions (2-0). In total, the underdog has won only three out of 32 head-to-head matches, while the yellow-greens have secured 19 victories.

Prediction: Brazil vs Colombia

Although Brazil has previously demonstrated superiority over Colombia, the situation is different now: the five-time world champions have not been in their best form in recent years, while Néstor Lorenzo's side are on a ten-match winning streak. The visitors have also yet to cement their top spot, so they will be highly motivated. It seems bookmakers are underestimating James and his team – I’m betting on their unbeaten run.

Total Goals Prediction

Colombia has scored in their last ten matches in all competitions, while the Selecao's defence is not the most reliable, conceding in four of their last five matches. I'm betting on the individual total of the underdog over 1.

Corner Kicks Prediction

Brazil has taken 15 corner kicks in this Copa America, while Colombia only managed seven. Additionally, the Selecao are more motivated as they need to win to finish top of the group. Therefore, I’m betting on their victory in corner kicks.

Yellow Cards Prediction

None of the players on the field will hold back in challenges, as the top spot in the group is at stake. I'm betting on a total of over 3.5 yellow cards.

Score Prediction

I’m predicting a final score of 1-2 in favour of Colombia.