Romania - Netherlands predictions and free betting tips [02/07/2024]

On Tuesday, July 2, at the 1/8 finals of Euro 2024, the Romanian national team will face the Netherlands national team. Edward Iordanescu's squad sensationally took first place in the very competitive group E, reaching the knockout stages of a major tournament for the first time since 2000, while the Dutch only managed to finish third, trailing Austria and France.

Predicted Line-ups

Romania: Nita; Mogoș, Drăgușin, Burcă, Rațiu; R. Marin, S. Marin, Stanciu; Hagi, Drăguș, Coman.

Missing from the Romanian squad are Manea (Rapid Bucharest) and Tănase (Al-Okhdood), with midfielder Moruțan (Ankaragücü) ruled out due to injury. Left-back Bancu, suspended after receiving two bookings since the start of the Euros, is a significant loss for the yellow-blues: Vasile Mogoș and Deian Sorescu are the primary candidates to replace him. The coaching staff will likely rely heavily on their playmaker and captain Stanciu (Damac), who scored the winning goal against Ukraine and is a key player, much like Dennis Man (Parma).

Man, notably, provided an assist in the first match and equalised with a penalty against Slovakia on Wednesday. His club teammate Mihăilă (6 goals in Serie B) is competing with Florinel Coman for the left-wing spot, while Drăguș has established himself as a capable centre-forward. In defence, the experienced Drăgușin (Tottenham) should pair with Burcă (Al-Okhdood), while Hagi, having won a penalty in the third round, may return to the bench. Midfielder Marin is training fully after a brief rest due to a minor injury, so his starting appearance should not be surprising.

Netherlands: Verbruggen; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Aké; Reijnders, Schouten; Frimpong, Simons, Gakpo; Depay. 

On paper, the Dutch squad looks much stronger, yet many Oranje players are not in their best form. Among them is forward Depay, who, despite scoring his 46th goal for the national team against Austria, faces severe criticism from the press for his on-field antics. Nevertheless, the Atlético striker is closing in on Robin van Persie's record of 50 goals for the Netherlands. Talented Xavi Simons (RB Leipzig) and wingers Gakpo and Malen haven't impressed in the group stage but add versatility to the Tulpes' attack.

The experienced Wout Weghorst consistently strengthens the game when coming off the bench in the second halves. The defence remains reliable with De Vrij (Inter), Van Dijk (Liverpool), Aké (Manchester City), and Dumfries (Inter Milan). In midfield, the absence of De Jong (Barcelona) and Koopmeiners (Atalanta) due to injuries before the tournament is notable; Reijnders, Schouten, Veerman, and Wijnaldum can only marginally compensate for their absence. Bologna's forward Joshua Zirkzee is back in full training after a short illness and may feature in the second half.

Stadium

The match will take place in Munich at Allianz Arena.

Romania

For the first time since 2000, Romania will play in a knockout match at the European Championship, as in 2008 and 2016 they were eliminated at the group stage. For this modest team, which has already made significant progress in the qualifying campaign, it's a remarkable achievement. They topped the qualification group ahead of Switzerland and Israel, entering the tournament with confidence. Under Iordanescu, they began with a 3-0 drubbing of Ukraine but then faltered with a 0-2 loss to Belgium due to goals from Tielemans and De Bruyne.

Last Wednesday, the nominal home side drew 1-1 with Slovakia thanks to a penalty from Răzvan Marin, securing first place in group E. For the first time in the history of the men's Euros, all four teams in one group finished with the same number of points: Romania, Ukraine, Belgium, and Slovakia each had a win, a draw, and a loss. Notably, Romania has historically struggled in the 1/8 finals at World Cups in 1934, 1938, 1990, and 1998. Their true strength lies in their solid defence: they conceded more than one goal in only 2 of their last 13 matches across all competitions, keeping seven clean sheets.

Netherlands

The Netherlands have been one of the major disappointments of the tournament. Entering the Euros as a "dark horse," they barely managed to secure third place in group D, trailing Austria and France. Koeman's side won their opener against Poland 2-1 courtesy of goals from Gakpo and Weghorst. This was followed by a goalless draw with France in a tense but underwhelming match, and a 2-3 defeat to Austria last Tuesday. An own goal by Malen early on, followed by goals from Gakpo and Depay in the second half, couldn’t save them as Schmid and Sabitzer sealed the victory for Austria.

However, the Dutch avoided a play-off path with Belgium, Spain, Germany, and Portugal and, following Italy's stumble against Switzerland, they remain the only team with a previous Euro win left on the path to the final. Ahead of the tournament, the Netherlands secured convincing friendly wins over Canada (4-0) and Iceland (4-0). Much like Romania, Koeman's team boasts a strong defence, keeping clean sheets in 7 of their last 10 matches across all competitions. Additionally, the nominal visitors average two goals per game in 2024.

Head-to-Head

The Oranje have only lost once in their last 13 matches against Romania – a 1-0 defeat in the Euro 2008 qualifiers – but they avenged that with a 2-0 win in the group stage of the same tournament.

Prediction for the Match: Romania vs Netherlands

With all due respect to Romania, this team has already exceeded expectations. The loss to a struggling Belgium in the second round revealed that Iordanescu's team lacks top-class players, and their triumph over Ukraine was largely due to goalkeeping errors by Lunin. The Dutch have also underwhelmed in the group stage but boast one of the most star-studded line-ups in this Euro. I don't believe the Oranje will falter again in the 1/8 finals, and I'm betting on their victory with a -1 handicap.

Total Goals Prediction

Koeman has a wealth of attacking talent at his disposal, so even if the Dutch score the first goal, they are unlikely to stop there. Bet on the individual total over 1.5 goals for the favourites.

Corners Prediction

The Dutch team will dominate possession and attack more, as they surpass Romania in class and experience. Bet on the individual total over 5.5 corners for the Oranje.

Yellow Cards Prediction

Romania will have to play defensively and commit many fouls, so expect plenty of bookings in their favour. Bet on Iordanescu's team to win the yellow card count.

Score Prediction

I'm betting on a 1-3 victory for the Netherlands.