Paraguay - Brazil predictions and free betting tips [29/06/2024]

At the Allegiant Stadium in the USA, the second round of Group D in the Copa America will see Paraguay face off against the formidable Brazil on the morning of 29 June.

Probable Line-ups

Paraguay: Roberto Mario Acosta, Gustavo Velazquez, Fabian Balbuena, Omar Alderete, Matias Espinoza, Ernesto Caballero, Andres Cubas, Matias Villasanti, Miguel Almiron, Adrian Arce, Julio Enciso.

Brazil: Alisson, Danilo, Eder Militao, Marquinhos, Guilherme Arana, Bruno Guimaraes, Joao Gomes, Lucas Paqueta, Raphinha, Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior.

Paraguay

Before the start of the 2024 Copa America, Paraguay displayed mixed results in friendly matches, ending their preparation with a draw against Peru, a loss to Chile (0-3), and a narrow win over Panama (1-0). In the first round of the group stage of the Copa America, hosted in the USA, Paraguay suffered a 2-1 defeat to Colombia. In the first half, the Colombians netted two goals, and Paraguay could only respond with a single goal from Julio Enciso in the second half. Paraguay's squad has not showcased the expected levels of scoring and consistency in the group stage. Despite creating several dangerous moments in the match against Colombia, Paraguay lacked the strength to completely turn the match around after the break, leaving the team with minimal chances of advancing from the group. According to statistics, Paraguay made 11 shots on target and had an advanced xG of 1.35, which does not reflect Colombia's dominance. 

In the Copa America, the team faced issues with ball control and passing accuracy, indicating their poor preparation for high pressure from opponents. In the match against Colombia, Paraguay's pass accuracy was just 64%, highlighting significant problems in ball handling. Additionally, Colombia's high pressing created further difficulties, which will likely be mirrored by a more skilled Brazil in the upcoming matches. The best player for Paraguay in this match was the young leader from Brighton, Julio Enciso, who not only scored the goal but also actively participated in the team's attacking actions, showing high class in dribbling and battles. This allows Paraguay to rely on his leadership in the forthcoming matches, although the overall gameplay needs substantial improvement to compete with stronger opponents in the tournament.

Brazil

Brazil's national team played a dull draw against Costa Rica in their first Copa America match, despite holding possession and dominating attacking actions. Junior's squad faced unexpected difficulties with finishing their chances at the start of the Copa America. In the first match against Costa Rica, Brazil shot 20 times but failed to score, while the opponent maintained a goalless draw thanks to their goalkeeper's excellent performance. This outcome disappointed both fans and analysts, as Brazil is traditionally regarded as favourites with a plethora of stars, but neither Vinicius, Rodrygo, nor the substitutes Endrick and Martinelli could break through Costa Rica's tight defence. 

Despite numerous attacks and 74% possession, Brazil could not efficiently use their chances, underlining finishing issues they have faced not only in this game but in previous matches as well. Of particular note were the central defenders Marquinhos and Militao, who provided solid defence, with Marquinhos excelling in individual duels. In the match against Costa Rica, Brazil created 1.71 expected goals (xG) — a statistic indicating their dominance in attack but insufficient efficiency in the final third. This match underscored the problems within Brazil's superstar squad, where each player seemed to pull in different directions. Even with control of the game, Brazil could not overcome the opponent's defence, potentially complicating their progress in the tournament.

Head-to-head Meetings

Brazil and Paraguay have a rich history of encounters in the Copa America and World Cup qualifiers. Their last Copa America meeting took place in the quarter-finals of the 2019 tournament, where the match ended in a 0-0 draw. Brazil, featuring stars like Roberto Firmino, Philippe Coutinho, Gabriel Jesus, Dani Alves, and Thiago Silva, only managed to secure victory in a penalty shootout. In the last two World Cup qualifiers, Brazil came out on top both times. On 2 February 2022, Brazil thrashed Paraguay 4-0, and on 9 June 2021, they won 2-0.

Interestingly, in the 2015 Copa America quarter-final, another draw (1-1) led to penalties, with Paraguay emerging victorious. A similar scenario occurred in the 2011 Copa America, with a 0-0 draw and Paraguay again victorious in the shootout, despite Brazil having stars like Neymar, Robinho, Pato, and Ganso. In the last 10 matches since 2008, Brazil has won five times in regular time, while Paraguay managed just one win, back in 2008 with a 1-0 scoreline.

Match Prediction: Paraguay vs. Brazil

Brazil once again showed that football is played by people, not the value of players. However, in the match against Costa Rica, Brazil was quite unlucky; they should have scored at least two goals, with much decided in individual duels. Paraguay, stronger in team play, may not allow the five-time world champions to score more than two goals.