Switzerland - Italy predictions and free betting tips [29/06/2024]

Saturday, 29 June, will feature a thrilling encounter in the Round of 16 at Euro 2024, as Switzerland takes on the national team of Italy. The "Squadra Azzurra" squeaked through the group stage with just 4 points, while Murat Yakin's men remained unbeaten in their three opening matches. The winner of this clash will face England or Slovakia in the quarterfinals.

Predicted Line-ups

Switzerland: Sommer; Schär, Akanji, Rodriguez; Stergiou, Xhaka, Freuler, Aebischer; Ndoye, Vargas; Embolo.

Right wingback Widmer (Mainz) will be suspended on Saturday due to an accumulation of yellow cards. However, the red-and-white squad has no other injury issues. Midfielders Zakaria (Monaco) and winger Zuber (AEK Athens) have recovered from injuries and were even included in the squad for the previous match against Germany. Experienced players Mbabu (Augsburg), Sow (Sevilla), and Seferović (Al-Wasl, 25 goals in 93 matches), along with Garcia (Marseille), Omeragić (Montpellier), Cömert (Nantes), and Lotomba (Nice), were not called up for the tournament by the coaching staff. On the brighter side, we will likely see all the Swiss stars in action, especially central defender Akanji (Manchester City) and defensive midfielder Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen), who shone during the group stage.

Goalkeeper Yann Sommer (Inter Milan) and defender Schär (Newcastle) helped the team concede only three goals in their opening three matches. Meanwhile, the dynamic Ndoye (Bologna) seamlessly integrated into Yakin's attacking plans, scoring the only goal for the red-and-whites in the third round. Strikers Doi (Ludogorets, 1 goal in 2 matches) and Embolo (Monaco, 14 goals in 64 matches) found the net against Hungary, and the experienced Shaqiri scored a beautiful top-corner goal against Scotland, though the former Bayern player is expected to start on the bench. Notably, Xherdan Shaqiri became the first player in history to score in six consecutive major international tournaments!

Leonidas Stergiou will replace the suspended Silvan Widmer, and Ruben Vargas and Zeki Amdouni will vie for the chance to bolster the side off the bench in the second half.

Italy: Donnarumma; Darmian, Mancini, Bastoni; Di Lorenzo, Barella, Jorginho, Pellegrini, Dimarco; Chiesa, Scamacca.

In the "Nazionale" camp, a pivotal suspension should be noted—young wingback Calafiori. The Bologna defender inadvertently scored an own goal against Spain but still impressed in the opening matches, with a brilliant run that assisted Zaccagni's goal in the finale against Croatia. This summer, coach Luciano Spalletti was forced to leave out several veteran players: Calabria, Acerbi, Scalvini, Udogie, Zaniolo, and Berardi. Midfielder Locatelli and forward Immobile were also left out despite their heroics in the previous continental championship.

Between the posts, we expect to see Donnarumma (PSG), who was arguably Italy's best player in the group stage, making several outstanding saves against Spain and Croatia, including a penalty stop against Modric.

Defenders Di Lorenzo (Napoli), Bastoni (Inter), and Dimarco (Inter), along with midfielders Pellegrini (Roma) and Barella (Inter), will handle the defensive fortitude. Upfront, Scamacca (Atalanta) and Chiesa (Juventus) are set to start, though both began on the bench against Croatia while Spalletti opted for Retegui (Genoa) and Raspadori (Napoli). Lazio winger Zaccagni managed to save the "Azzurri" with a spectacular goal, ensuring a second-place finish in Group B and a spot in the knockout stages. Experienced defender Dimarco has had some calf strain issues this week, making his starting presence uncertain.

Stadium

The match will take place in Berlin at Olympiastadion.

Switzerland

Having eliminated France in the Round of 16 back in 2021, Switzerland has once again reached the knockout stage of the continental championship. The "Nati" impressed with their quality of play in the group stage and came close to clinching the top spot in Group A. Murat Yakin’s men began the tournament with a convincing 3-1 victory over Hungary, then earned a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Scotland thanks to a Xherdan Shaqiri goal. In the third match, they put up a commendable fight against Euro hosts Germany, taking the lead just past the half-hour mark before succumbing to Niclas Füllkrug’s last-minute equaliser (1-1).

As a result, the Swiss finished second in the group standings but are brimming with confidence as they head into the playoffs. An interesting fact: the "Nati" have advanced from the group stage in each of the last six major tournaments, a streak that started in 2014. The only European nation with a better record is France, with seven consecutive qualifications for the Round of 16. However, Switzerland has not won any of their previous seven knockout matches in regular time at the Euros or World Cup. Preceding the start of this football fiesta in Germany, the Swiss enjoyed success in friendlies, defeating Estonia 4-0 and drawing 1-1 with Austria.

Italy

The defending European champions nearly conjured a miracle by making it to the knockouts. Despite a disappointing performance against Croatia last Monday, Spalletti’s side managed to equalise in stoppage time (98th minute) through Zaccagni (1-1), clinching second place in Group B, the so-called "Group of Death." Had they finished with only three points and a negative goal difference, Italy would have faced elimination. Earlier, the "Azzurri" laboured to a 2-1 win over Albania despite conceding an early goal, followed by a narrow 0-1 loss to Spain in the second match. Against "La Roja," the scoreline didn’t quite reflect the game’s flow, which could have been far more one-sided if not for Donnarumma’s brilliant goalkeeping.

The nominal visitors still fancy their chances of retaining their title, but overall performances have been uninspiring. Ahead of Euro 2024, the "Nazionale" drew 0-0 with Turkey and secured a 1-0 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina, finishing second in their group behind England but ahead of Ukraine. Despite World Cup qualification woes, the "Azzurri" have reached the quarterfinals of every Euro since 2004. Notably, we might see a rematch of the last continental final in the next round, pitting Spalletti against Southgate.

Head-to-Head

These teams have met 61 times in their history. Switzerland has only won eight matches, while Italy has triumphed in 29, with 24 draws. The sides clashed in the group stage of Euro 2021, where the "Squadra Azzurra" earned a 3-0 victory, followed by two draws in World Cup qualifiers for Qatar.

Predictions for Switzerland vs. Italy

These teams have thoroughly studied each other in recent years, so don’t expect an open game with a plethora of chances. Italy scraped through to the knockouts with a bit of luck and hasn’t impressed so far—goals are hard to come by, and even the defence isn’t rock-solid (except for Donnarumma). Conversely, Switzerland, under Murat Yakin, showcased lively performances in the group stage and came close to defeating the tournament hosts, Germany. I don’t see the reigning European champions as favourites here and back a double chance for the red-and-white team.

Prediction on Total Goals

Only one of the last six head-to-head encounters saw more than two goals scored. Neither side will rush to control the game, prioritising defensive solidity. I anticipate a lack of many dangerous chances and bet on the total goals being under 3.

Prediction on Corners

Italy boasts quick flank players in Chiesa and Zaccagni, while Switzerland averaged five corners per game in the group stage. In such a close match, set-pieces can be decisive. Therefore, I bet on the total corners being over 8.5.

Prediction on Yellow Cards

The Swiss accumulated eight yellow cards in their opening three matches, and it’s unlikely Murat Yakin's side will scale back their intensity in this crucial fixture. I wager on their individual total yellow cards being over 2.5.

Prediction on the Score

I predict a final score of 1-1 in regular time.