Germany - Denmark predictions and free betting tips [29/06/2024]

The match at the "Signal Iduna Park" (Dortmund) will see Germany face Denmark in the Round of 16 of Euro 2024.

Probable Lineups

Germany: Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, Nico Schlotterbeck, Antonio Rudiger, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Robert Andrich, Toni Kroos, Jamal Musiala, Ilkay Gundogan, Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz.

Denmark: Kasper Schmeichel, Joachim Andersen, Andreas Christensen, Jannik Vestergaard, Alexander Bah, Thomas Delaney, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Joakim Maehle, Christian Eriksen, Rasmus Hojlund, Jonas Wind.

How Did Germany Perform in the Group Stage?

Nagelsmann did not change the core lineup throughout the group stage.

Goalkeeper

Manuel Neuer was immovable in the squad. Marc-Andre ter Stegen, who has played 0 minutes over four major tournaments in a row, will become the main keeper once Neuer retires.

Defence

The team will definitely see changes in the playoffs due to Nagelsmann's excessive pragmatism. German media questioned why he fielded the main squad again in the third match despite securing advancement. This resulted in serious issues. Jonathan Tah received his second yellow card of the tournament and will not play for sure, while Antonio Rudiger is injured and doubtful. If the Real Madrid centre-back does not appear, a new centre-back pairing will face Denmark: Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund and Waldemar Anton from Stuttgart. It's possible that instead of the relatively inexperienced Anton, Emre Can, who has played this role for Borussia, could play, but it’s still a big risk. The positions of Maximilian Mittelstädt and Joshua Kimmich on the flanks remain undebatable. Maximilian had an excellent group stage, even assisting Gundogan’s goal in the second match.

Midfield

No changes here: the team’s two best players, Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan, are performing brilliantly. Defensive midfielder Robert Andrich also had a solid debut in a major tournament, even scoring a long-range goal against Switzerland, although it was disallowed. Toni Kroos proved his greatness and was stellar, as was Ilkay Gundogan, the first captain of non-German heritage in the team’s history. Out of all midfielders, Nagelsmann only substituted Robert Andrich in the first match due to a yellow card; the others played almost 90 minutes each.

Attack:

The trio Kai Havertz, Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz will surely start. The two young geniuses Musiala and Wirtz created two goals in the first match, Jamal scored against Hungary, but they were less dangerous in the last match. Kai Havertz continued to be extremely useful and easily scored his penalty, although he has not been a prolific goal-scorer even for Arsenal.

How Did Denmark Perform in the Group Stage?

Julmann’s team performed well in the group but did not rotate the defence. Goalkeeper veteran Kasper Schmeichel played dutifully and will definitely play in the playoffs.

Defence:

The three Centre-Backs Andreas Christensen, Jannik Vestergaard, and Joachim Andersen played all 180 minutes and were reliable. Veteran Simon Kjaer didn't play a minute as the defensive trio performed up to 100%, making no noticeable errors. The young Bah often started at right-back, though he was substituted by Maehle once, who proved his reliability by playing both on the right and left.

Midfield

Christian Eriksen returned in full form after his frightening incident at the previous Euros and remains Denmark’s leader. The Manchester United midfielder initiated attacks and took long-range shots, always being a threat. His partners also did well: Morten Hjulmand from Sporting CP scored the longest goal of the Euro from 30 metres against England, while veteran Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg continues to show activity in the midfield. However, Hjulmand's yellow-card accumulation will see him replaced by veteran Thomas Delaney. Coach Julmann is unlikely to risk fielding the attacking Damsgaard.

Attack

Jonas Wind and Rasmus Hojlund started all three matches but did not score and had limited chances. They contributed to pressing and defence, which likely satisfies Julmann. The reserves Poulsen and Dolberg have been underperforming in European leagues and are unlikely to be risked against Germany.

Group Stage for Germany

Germany, under Julian Nagelsmann, showed an impressive start in the group stage of Euro 2024 but faltered in the end, putting in a weak performance against Switzerland and barely earning a point to retain the top spot in Group A. It all began perfectly with a confident 5-1 victory against Scotland at the Allianz Arena. Florian Wirtz opened the scoring in the 10th minute, supported by Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz, who quickly settled the game's outcome. Scotland's task was complicated by Porteous's dismissal in the first half, allowing Germany to extend their lead with Havertz scoring a penalty. Wirtz became Germany's youngest goal-scorer at the Euros. Kroos delivered 100 accurate passes out of 101, and even substitutes Can and Fullkrug scored.

In the second match against Hungary in Stuttgart, the German team again faced no difficulties, winning 2-0. Goals from Musiala and Ilkay Gundogan reinforced their status as tournament favourites. Toni Kroos's consistent excellence is pivotal. In the first match, he set a Euro record for passing accuracy at 99%, and then made 124 accurate passes in the next game.

The third group match against Switzerland ended in a 1-1 draw, with the unchanged German side failing to stand firm against the Swiss. The veterans withstood pressure using old-fashioned crossing tactics. The saviours were two substitutes: Raum came on for Mittelstädt and delivered a perfect cross to Fullkrug, ensuring Germany retained the top spot in the group. However, concerns linger regarding their defensive display.
Germany finished the group stage with 8 goals scored and only 2 conceded, making them one of the most prolific and sturdy teams in the tournament. However, heading into the Round of 16, their defence is a concern: Jonathan Tah will miss the next match due to suspension, and Antonio Rudiger remains doubtful due to injury.

Group Stage for Denmark

Denmark had a pragmatic and somewhat shaky group stage run while affirming their status as favourites in the opening match against Slovenia. Returning to football after his severe incident in the previous Euro, Christian Eriksen scored following an elegant backheel pass from Jonas Wind in the 17th minute. Despite Slovenia equalising later, Denmark held on for a draw. Kasper Schmeichel made several crucial saves.

In the second fixture against England, which also ended 1-1, the match scenario was different. A mistake by young Christensen, later substituted by Maehle, led to a goal by Kane, prompting Denmark to attack. Hjulmand’s brilliant long-range goal was well deserved, and Denmark looked stronger until the end. Eriksen's pivotal role was evident once again.
Against Serbia, the match ended goalless and appeared less spectacular compared to previous encounters. Denmark, like many teams in the third round, played at 40% capacity, and Serbia, who put on a weaker performance, couldn't create any threats. However, Denmark lost one of their best creators after Eriksen, Hjulmand.

Despite the lack of victories, Denmark took second place in their group and extended their unbeaten run in major tournaments. Special attention was given to Hjulmand’s spectacular long-range shot and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg’s high activity in midfield.

An interesting fact about this tournament is that Denmark advanced thanks to an unusual criterion: the fewest yellow cards. Heading into the Round of 16 against Germany, Denmark may not exhibit the most thrilling football, but their defensive prowess and the experience of key players could be decisive.

Head-to-Head Encounters

The teams have faced off three times in the main stages of the Euros, with the second match remaining memorable for all. In 1992, Denmark, who joined the tournament unexpectedly in place of Yugoslavia, reached the final and defeated Germany 2-0, marking one of the greatest surprises in tournament history. In 1988, Germany defeated Denmark 2-0, thanks to a goal by Jürgen Klinsmann. In more recent history, at Euro 2012, Germany won 2-1. Goals from Lukas Podolski and Lars Bender ensured the win, with Christian Eriksen playing the full match for Denmark. Toni Kroos came on as a substitute for Thomas Müller, while Ilkay Gundogan remained on the bench.

Historically, Denmark holds the upper hand in head-to-head clashes with Germany. In their 9 matches, Germany has won only twice, while Denmark has claimed victory 4 times. Their recent friendly matches in 2017 and 2021 ended in 1-1 draws twice. In 2010, the teams drew 2-2, while in 2000, Denmark defeated Germany 2-1, and in 2007, Germany lost 0-1.

Match Prediction: Germany vs Denmark

Nagelsmann surprised everyone in the final round by resting no players. Now, facing very experienced Danes, it will be the inexperienced Nico Schlotterbeck, with Rudiger's participation uncertain. Germany has not shown how they will penetrate a tight and skilled defence; the defences of Hungary and Scotland are not comparable, while the match against Switzerland, who are more similar to Denmark, revealed more. I believe the Danes won't lose by more than one goal, or they might drag it into extra time. My bet for the match Germany vs Denmark at Euro 2024: Handicap 2 (+1) at 1.7.

Bet 2: Germany Handicap -5.5 (shots on target) — Julmann’s team will surely close down, and Germans will try to break through whenever feasible, which was not the case against Switzerland. Nagelsmann should take some lessons.

Total Prediction

Under 2.5 goals looks terrific. Denmark has scored only 2 goals in the tournament, and none of the attacking pair Wind-Hojlund have shown themselves.