Colombia - Costa Rica predictions and free betting tips [28/06/2024]

On Saturday, 29 June, Colombia’s national team will host Costa Rica for their second match in Copa America. With a victory over Paraguay (2-1), "Los Cafeteros" have taken the lead in Group D, while the underdog achieved a sensational draw against Brazil (0-0).

Predicted Line-ups

Colombia: Vargas; Munoz, Sanchez, Mina, Mojica; Rios, Lerma, Arias, Rodriguez; Duran, Diaz. 

The Colombian coaching staff decided not to include forwards Poveda (Sheffield Wednesday, injured), Caballe (Verona), Christian Borja (Braga), midfielders Barrios (Zenit) and full-back Cuadrado (Inter), as well as forwards Cassierra (Zenit) and Andres Gomez (Real Salt Lake) for this Copa America. Other changes are minimal: playmaker James Rodriguez, Daniel Munoz (Crystal Palace), and Jefferson Lerma (Crystal Palace) are available. Liverpool winger Luis Diaz (8 goals, 5 assists this season in the EPL) is expected to lead the yellow-blue attacks, while Borre (Internacional) started as the central striker against Paraguay.

Uribe (Al Sadd), Cordoba (Krasnodar), Juan Quintero (Racing, Argentina), and Castano (Krasnodar) strengthened the game from the bench in the second half and will remain in reserve. Experienced Yerry Mina (Cagliari) will replace Lukumi (Bologna) who is sidelined due to injury. Notably, Luis Diaz scored his 50th goal for the national team last week, while goalkeeper David Ospina was benched in favour of the talented Vargas.

Costa Rica: Siqueira; Quiros, Mitchell, Vargas, Calvo, Lassiter; Galo, Bran, Aguilera; Zamora, Ugalde. 

Costa Rica is missing a number of key players, including the retired Keylor Navas (PSG), and injured Oviedo (81 caps), Gonzalez (90 caps), and Tejeda (78 caps). Ugalde (Spartak Moscow) and Francisco Calvo (94 caps) received yellow cards in the first round, and their participation in the match is under threat of suspension. Experienced Aguilera Zamora (Nottingham Forest), Alvaro Zamora (Aris Limassol), and Lassiter (Montreal) are also unlikely to recover from injuries in time. Joel Campbell (27 goals), with 140 caps for the national team, often finds himself on the bench.

In the first round, three changes were made to the starting lineup compared to the World Cup qualifier against Grenada (3-0): Jaxel Quiros, Juan Pablo Vargas, and Jefferson Brenes came into the game. Interestingly, Jaylin Mitchell became the youngest player to start in the CONCACAF tournament at 19 years and 270 days. Despite 19 shots from the Brazilians, goalkeeper Patrick Siqueira made just three saves to secure his fourth clean sheet for the national team in 2024.

Stadium

The match will take place at State Farm Stadium in Glendale.

Colombia

Having been quarter-finalists in the last two Copa America tournaments (3rd place in 2021), Colombia hopes to return to the semi-finals of the continental championship in the coming weeks and possibly claim their second title in history, after their 2001 triumph at home. Currently, the campaign for the yellow-blues is going brilliantly: while Brazil struggled against Costa Rica (0-0), the Colombians defeated a solid Paraguay team (2-1), marking their 24th unbeaten match across all competitions and their ninth consecutive victory! Munoz and Lerma scored in the first half, and Enciso only managed consolation for the visitors in the 69th minute.

Colombia's last defeat was in the World Cup qualifiers against Argentina (2 February 2022). The tricolours missed out on the recent World Cup, making them more motivated to make amends: in the current qualifying cycle, Nestor Lorenzo's team remains unbeaten (3 wins, 3 draws), and they are 3rd in the standings behind Uruguay and Argentina. The Latin Americans have been strong in attack, scoring 13 goals in their last four matches, and have not lost to CONCACAF teams since 2016 (ironically, against Costa Rica).

Costa Rica

Nobody believed in Costa Rica in their opening match against Brazil, but by setting up camp near their own goal and only occasionally threatening the opposition, the red-blues managed a goalless draw with the "Selesao", as predicted by Ronaldinho himself. Moreover, Gustavo Alfaro's side became only the third CONCACAF team to keep Brazil scoreless in Copa America, following Honduras (2001) and Mexico (2001 and 2007). The guests now aim to compete for second place with Colombia and Paraguay, and a victory on Saturday night could even see them top Group D.

Earlier this month, Costa Rica drew with Uruguay (0-0) in a friendly, then won both World Cup qualifying matches against Saint Kitts and Nevis (4-0) and Grenada (0-3). The current four-match unbeaten run is their longest streak since the build-up to the 2022 World Cup when they went five games unbeaten before the tournament. Fans will also be pleased that the underdogs haven't conceded in their last four matches across all competitions.

Head-to-head

"The Ticos" have lost nine of their last 11 matches against Colombia, with their previous victory over the yellow-blues in Copa America 2016 coming more than 70 years after their last win in 1938.

Prediction for Colombia vs Costa Rica

Colombia has been in excellent form for the past two years and is seriously considered a contender for this year's Copa America title. Costa Rica, with all due respect, is outclassed and only managed to draw with Brazil by a miracle in the opening match. The roster at Nelson Lorenzo's disposal would be envied by many top European national teams, so it makes sense to bet on the favourites to win with a -1 handicap.

Prediction for Total Goals

The Colombians boast a luxurious attacking line led by James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz, so they are unlikely to leave the field without a couple of goals. I'll wager on the Latin Americans' individual total over 1.5.

Prediction for Corners

The Colombian team is expected to dominate and should surpass all key metrics, including corners (handicap -2.5).

Prediction for Yellow Cards

The Costa Ricans predictably led in yellow cards in the first round, and the situation is likely to remain the same this time. I'll bet on the underdog to win this statistic.

Score Prediction

I'll bet on a 2-0 scoreline in favour of Colombia.