Venezuela - Mexico predictions and free betting tips [27/06/2024]

The Venezuelan and Mexican national teams will clash in the second round of Group B in Copa America.

Probable Lineups

Venezuela: Rafael Romo, Alexander Gonzalez, Nahuel Ferraresi, Yordan Osorio, Miguel Navarro, Cristian Casseres, Yangel Herrera, Jose Martinez, Yeferson Soteldo, Salomon Rondon, Darwin Machis.

Mexico: Julio Gonzalez, Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez, Gerardo Arteaga, Edson Alvarez, Luis Chavez, Uriel Antuna, Orbelin Pineda, Julian Quinones, Raul Jimenez.

Venezuela

Venezuela had an impressive start in the Copa America, securing a 2-1 victory over Ecuador despite being the underdog. This success was partially due to a numerical advantage after Enner Valencia was sent off in the first half. However, their attacking efficiency confirms that the team can perform under pressure. Despite conceding in the first half, goals from Cadiz and Bello led Venezuela to a 2-1 win. According to xG (expected goals) statistics, the team had a 1.36 xG, which was logical considering the opponent's red card. The main attacking threat comes from the well-known veteran Salomon Rondon, who has displayed outstanding form, helping Venezuela to a strong position in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, including a draw against Brazil.

Venezuela now aims to maintain this form against their next Copa opponent - Mexico. This would solidify their chances of progressing from the group stage. The intense pressing they displayed against Ecuador, along with good possession and chance creation stats, are crucial factors for their potential success. However, Venezuela continues to face defensive challenges, as seen in the Ecuador game, where the opponent created several dangerous moments despite being a man down.

Mexico

The Mexican national team is preparing for the second round of the Copa America after overcoming Jamaica 1-0, thanks to Arteaga's goal in the 69th minute. This victory was important, especially after two previous friendly match losses: 0-4 against Uruguay and 2-3 against Brazil. Despite their numerical advantage and a high xG index of 1.15, the Mexicans struggled with converting their chances. In the upcoming match against Venezuela, a win would ensure Mexico's place in the playoffs. Heading into the second round, Mexico is the favourite.

Although the team started with a victory, critics point out deficiencies in stability and effectiveness. According to xG, the Mexicans created enough chances for a more confident win, but their performance was far from perfect, especially in attack, where they could have converted more opportunities. The Mexican team previously suffered two defeats in friendlies against Uruguay and Brazil, but victory over Jamaica, thanks to Arteaga's goal, broke a losing streak and possibly provided the team with the necessary confidence ahead of this crucial match. Mexico showed solid preparation and delivered an exciting performance in the first match with 20 shots and 11 on target against the rather unskilled Jamaica.

Head-to-head Matches

In the history of head-to-head matches between the Mexican and Venezuelan national teams, dating back to 1995, three Copa America matches have taken place. Mexico dominated, winning two of these encounters 3-1 in 1995 and 1999. The last group stage match in Copa America 2016 ended in a 1-1 draw. Overall, across 11 matches, Mexico has won 7 times, Venezuela 1 time, and the rest ended in draws.

Prediction for the Venezuela vs. Mexico Match

I would risk betting on Venezuela not to lose. They seem more organised against a Mexico side with a noticeable tilt towards attack. In their first match, the Aztecs missed numerous chances and struggled to break down Jamaica’s defence until the 70th minute. Defensively, Venezuela is head and shoulders above.

Total Goals Prediction

A bet on total goals under 2.5 looks pretty straightforward. The match against Ecuador was influenced by the red card and their goal, but in the game against Mexico, Rondon’s team is likely to play more defensively.