France - Poland predictions and free betting tips [25/06/2024]

On Tuesday, 25 June, in the 3rd round of the Euro 2024 group stage, the French national team will face Poland. Didier Deschamps' squad is currently second in Group D, contending for the top spot alongside the Dutch, whereas the White and Reds are already destined to finish last.

Expected Line-ups

France: Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Rabiot; Dembele, Griezmann, Thuram; Giroud.  

France are without their captain, Kylian Mbappe, for the match against the Netherlands. The former PSG star has scored 47 goals in 80 appearances for the national team, and without him, "Les Bleus" haven't won any of their last seven matches across all competitions. It’s unlikely that Didier Deschamps and his coaching staff will risk the forward in the final group stage match, especially since the question of advancing to the playoffs is already settled. Coman has a thigh issue and might also sit out after featuring against the Dutch.

Otherwise, the French can rely on their optimal squad, even if Griezmann is given a rest before more important matches. Defensive midfielder N'Golo Kante has proven throughout the current Euro that he can still play at the highest level, thus he is likely to start. Youssouf Fofana, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Warren Zaire-Emery might get some playing time, and the same goes for defenders Konate, Mendy, and Clauss, as well as forwards Barcola, Kolo Muani, and Giroud.

Poland: Szczesny; Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior; Frankowski, Zielinski, Slisz, Moder, Zalewski; Swiderski, Lewandowski.  Poland’s star player Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona, 82 goals in 150 matches) has returned from an injury sustained in friendlies just before the Euro. Defender Salamon (Lech Poznan) remains unavailable, so Dawidowicz (Verona) will take his place; wing-back Cash (Aston Villa) and forward Milik (Juventus) will be on the bench.

Playmaker Zielinski (Napoli), midfielders Frankowski (Lens) and Zalewski (Roma) will steer the team in midfield. Goalkeeper Szczesny from Juventus is expected to be replaced by Nice's Bulka. Right-back Kiwior (Arsenal) will secure the defence flank, assisted by experienced Dawidowicz and Bednarek. Piatek might come off the bench to boost the attack.

Stadium

The match will take place in Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park.

France

France started Euro 2024 perfectly: against a resilient Austrian side, "Les Bleus" managed to score at the end of the first half and held on for a minimal 1:0 victory. However, they lost Kylian Mbappe to a broken nose, sidelining him for the second-round match against the Netherlands on Friday night. In Leipzig, Deschamps’ men were unimpressive, resulting in a goalless draw, their first of the tournament. Heading into the final game, "Les Bleus" are second and can top the group by outperforming the Netherlands and Austria.

At the last continental championship, the host team was knocked out in the round of 16 by Switzerland on penalties. The former World Cup finalist clearly hopes for a better outcome this time. To secure a spot in Germany, France easily topped their qualifying group. With 7 wins and 1 draw, Didier Deschamps’ team finished ahead of the Netherlands, Greece, Ireland, and Gibraltar. However, before the Euro began, France thrashed Luxembourg (3:0) and then settled for a draw with Canada (0:0).

Poland

The Polish national team were considered outsiders in Group D and "lived up" to expectations. In the first round, the White and Reds squandered a lead against the Netherlands (1:2), conceding the decisive goal at the very end. In their second game against Austria, the Poles aimed for success but ended up defeated again (3:1), thus losing their playoff chances. In the first half, Trauner and Piatek exchanged goals, but after the break, Ralph Rangnick's men upped their game and triumphed with goals from Baumgartner and Arnautovic. Fans will be pleased to know that the nominal guests have scored in all but one of their last eight matches across all competitions. 

In recent years, Poland has regularly participated in major international tournaments but has not achieved much success. At the recent World Cup in Qatar, the team was eliminated in the round of 16 by France. Placed in qualifying Group E for a chance to compete in Germany, the White and Reds struggled to finish third, behind Albania and the Czech Republic. In the playoffs, they defeated Estonia (5:1) and then beat Wales in Cardiff (0:0, victory on penalties). Following this, they secured wins against Ukraine (3:1) and Turkey (2:1) in friendly matches. 

Head-to-Head

France has beaten Poland 5 times, with three draws and one loss. At the recent World Cup, "Les Bleus" eliminated the White and Reds in the round of 16.

Match Prediction: France vs Poland

The French team hasn't yet guaranteed themselves the top spot, meaning they'll be fielding a near-optimal squad. Even without Mbappe, Deschamps still has a formidable attacking lineup. Poland has no tournament motivation, as they'll finish fourth no matter what. I don't expect much from the White and Reds and favour a routine win for "Les Bleus" with a -1.5 handicap.

Prediction on Total

Poland has clear defensive issues, already conceding five goals in this Euro. Didier Deschamps’ side is unlikely to leave the field without scoring a couple of goals; thus, I'll go for an individual total over 2.

Prediction on Corners

The French not only surpass their opponents in class but are also motivated from a tournament perspective – the top spot isn’t secured yet. I'll bet on "Les Bleus" winning the corners with a -2.5 handicap.

Prediction on Yellow Cards

The Poles will spend a lot of time defending and will have to contain the opponent’s star-studded attack, so I'll bet on the underdog prevailing in yellow cards.

Score Prediction

I'll bet on a 3:0 scoreline in favour of the French national team.