Croatia - Italy predictions and free betting tips [24/06/2024]

In the third round of Group B at Euro 2024, Croatia and Italy will face off at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig.

Probable Line-ups

Italy: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Federico Dimarco, Nicolo Barella, Jorginho, Davide Frattesi, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Federico Chiesa, Gianluca Scamacca.

Croatia: Dominik Livakovic, Josip Juranovic, Josko Gvardiol, Josip Sutalo, Ivan Perisic, Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, Mateo Kovacic, Lovro Majer, Bruno Petkovic, Andrej Kramaric.

Croatia

The Croatian national team has encountered significant challenges at Euro 2024, despite their history of successful performances in major tournaments. For Zlatko Dalic’s squad, the tournament started disappointingly with a 0-3 loss against Spain and a 2-2 draw with Albania, where Croatia dropped points in the final minutes. In the game against Albania, where the Croatians were the clear favourites, the first half went under the control of the opponent, who scored an early goal in the 11th minute. After halftime, thanks to Dalic’s adjustments, Mario Pasalic and Luka Sucic came onto the field and managed to change the course of the game. Ante Budimir, the top scorer for Spanish side Osasuna, came on in the 69th minute and provided two assists that helped Croatia equalise. However, the final result — a draw — left Croatia with just 1 point after 2 games.

Before the final group match against Italy, Croatia faces the task of only winning to keep their chances of advancing to the next round. However, even a victory does not guarantee Croatia's advancement as much will depend on the outcome of the Spain — Albania match. Dalic’s squad, with the great old guard led by Luka Modric, did not exhibit consistent play. The defence repeatedly made mistakes, costing them valuable points. Major issues surfaced during the match against Albania, where the Croatians missed several scoring opportunities and failed to maintain their advantage.

Italy

The Italian national team, under the guidance of Luciano Spalletti, has shown mixed results at this Euro. In their first match, the Italians faced Albania and, despite conceding an early goal in the first minute, managed to mount a comeback and secure a 2-1 victory. This success gave the team hope, but the subsequent game against Spain revealed serious problems within the "Squadra Azzurra." Italy faced one of the tournament favourites, Spain, who dominated from the start with high speed and ball control. The Italians struggled to cope with the pace of Spanish wingers — Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, who combined for 8 successful dribbles. Continuous attacks from "La Roja" led to a goal in the 55th minute, which resulted from an unfortunate intervention by Liverpool's new defender Riccardo Calafiori, who accidentally put the ball into his own net after an Alvaro Morata strike. The Italians failed to organise any substantial attack, registering only 4 shots on goal throughout the match — their worst performance at the Euro by this measure.

Gianluigi Donnarumma was the sole standout for the Italians, making several key saves that prevented Spain from increasing their lead. Despite his efforts, Italy lost 0-1. Spalletti expressed his disappointment post-match, noting that a lack of activity and mistakes in simple passes were the main reasons for the loss. He emphasised that the team needed to maintain possession, as in previous matches, to stand a chance of success. Now, the upcoming match against Croatia becomes crucial for Italy. A loss could mean an early exit from the tournament. Spalletti highlights the need for the team to improve the quality of their passes and show greater dedication.

Head-to-Head

The Croatian national team has an impressive record against Italy, never losing in official matches. Since 1994, the teams have met 8 times, with Croatia securing 3 wins and 5 draws. One of the most memorable matches occurred during the main stage of Euro 2012 on 14 June, when the teams played to a 1-1 draw. Andrea Pirlo scored for Italy, while Mario Mandzukic equalised for Croatia. Another remarkable moment in their rivalry took place at the 2002 World Cup, when on 8 June, Croatia turned the game around against Italy, winning 2-1. Ivica Olic and Milan Rapaic scored for Croatia. The last two encounters between the teams were during the Euro 2016 qualifiers, with both matches ending in 1-1 draws.

Match Prediction: Croatia vs Italy

We are in for quite a dull match, I reckon. Croatia is struggling to keep up with younger opponents, and competing with a midfield of the calibre of Barella and co. will be tough. Hence, Dalic's team will likely sit back and wait for their chance. Croatia is stronger than Albania, whom Italy broke down multiple times. I'll bet on TU.