Spain - Italy predictions and free betting tips [20/06/2024]

This evening at the "Veltins-Arena" in Gelsenkirchen, a crucial match of the second round of Group B between Spain and Italy will take place. 

Probable Line-ups

Spain: Unai Simón, Dani Carvajal, Robin Le Normand, Nacho Fernández, Marc Cucurella, Pedri, Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, Lamine Yamal, Álvaro Morata, Nico Williams.

Italy: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Federico Dimarco, Matteo Darmian, Jorginho, Nicolò Barella, Davide Frattesi, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Gianluca Scamacca.

Spain

In their first match of Euro 2024, under the guidance of Luis de la Fuente, Spain showcased a new style of play and secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Croatia. The match took place at the Berlin Olympic Stadium, where the Spaniards set out to aggressively dominate from the start. In the first 13 minutes, the team executed their famous "tiki-taka", making it difficult for Croatia to exit their defensive third. Not only did Spain control the ball, but they also skillfully used opportunities for quick attacks. In the 29th minute, Álvaro Morata opened the scoring after an excellent combination initiated by Pedri and Fabián Ruiz, who perfectly passed the ball to Morata. Capitalising on a mistake by the Croatian defenders, the often-criticised Morata precisely sent the ball into the net, becoming Spain's top scorer at the Euros, scoring in his third consecutive tournament.

Towards the end of the first half, Spain scored two more goals, demonstrating the efficiency of their tactics. Fabián Ruiz doubled the score with a powerful finish following a passing combination, and Dani Carvajal, receiving the ball after a free-kick, scored the third goal. These quick and accurate attacks allowed Spain to end the first half with three goals, despite Croatia controlling the ball for most of the time. In the second half, the game slowed down significantly, but "La Roja" allowed Croatia more possession and goal-scoring opportunities. This was the first time in the last 135 matches that Spain conceded ball possession to their opponent, marking a noticeable shift from their usual style of play.

Towards the end of the match, an incident occurred that could have significantly changed the game's course: goalkeeper Unai Simón made a poor clearance leading to a foul by Rodri on Bruno Petković in the penalty area. After reviewing the VAR, the referee decided not to send off one of Manchester City's best players, opting for a yellow card instead. Simón later redeemed himself by saving Petković's penalty, keeping his goal intact until the end of the match.

Italy

In their first Euro 2024 match under coach Luciano Spalletti, Italy showcased their prowess with a 2-1 victory over Albania in the intense Adriatic Derby in Dortmund. Despite the fastest goal in European Championship history by Albanian Nedim Bajrami in just 23 seconds, Italy managed to recover and seize the initiative. Bajrami expertly capitalised on a wild mistake by Dimarco, slotting the ball past Donnarumma at the near post. Italy's response was swift: in the 11th minute, Alessandro Bastoni headed the ball into the net following a pass from Lorenzo Pellegrini, and then Nicolò Barella secured the lead with a powerful strike from the edge of the field. This historic goal saw Barella score his 10th goal for the national team, equalling Zola and Cassano. Federico Chiesa's 12 shots on goal and 4 successful dribbles underscored Italy's dominance in the first half.

In the second half, despite Albania's efforts to equalise, the Italian team showed confidence. Goalkeeper and captain Gianluigi Donnarumma played a key role, saving several dangerous moments, including a shot from Rey Manaj that could have been decisive in the 92nd minute. Italy demonstrated that they remain contenders for their third European Championship title.

Head-to-Head

Spain and Italy frequently meet in decisive stages of major international tournaments, showcasing a high level of competition. One of the most memorable moments was the Euro 2012 final, where Spain secured a convincing 4-0 victory, thanks to goals from Jordi Alba, David Silva, Fernando Torres, and Juan Mata. In the last Euro in 2021, the teams met in the semi-final, with Italy winning 2-1, a decisive moment came in the penalty shootout after misses by Morata and Olmo, with Jorginho sealing the victory. That same year in October, Spain took revenge, defeating Italy 2-1 in the Nations League. In 2023, in the Nations League final, Spain also defeated Italy 2-1, with goals from Pino and Joselu.

Match Prediction: Spain vs Italy

Spain allowed too many opportunities for Croatia's veterans near their goal, which Italy will not forgive. Spalletti's team plays in an ultra-modern style and is quite capable of not losing to the Spaniards. My bet is on X2, Spain played well for a half-hour stretch in the middle of the first half in the first match, which may not be enough against the European champions.

Total Goals Prediction

I expect an exciting match between two renewed and well-coached teams, with a total over 2 goals looking appealing with a good odds of 1.7. Both De la Fuente and Spalletti's sides have attacks that clearly outweigh their defences, with even the central defenders frequently joining the attacks.