Atletico Madrid - Borussia Dortmund predictions and free betting tips [10/04/2024]

On Wednesday, 10 April, as part of the first quarter-final match of the Champions League, Atletico Madrid will host Borussia Dortmund. Diego Simeone's team overcame Inter Milan in the last round via penalties, whilst Dortmund triumphed over PSV Eindhoven with a score of 3:1.

Projected Line-ups

Atletico: Oblak; Witsel, Gimenez, Reinildo; Molina, Llorente, Koke, De Paul, Lino; Griezmann, Morata.
Borussia D: Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can, Brandt; Sancho, Fullkrug, Adeyemi.

Stadium

The match will take place in Madrid at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium.

Atletico Madrid

After a disappointing season, Atletico bounced back to the Champions League playoffs and reached the quarterfinals for the seventh time in the last 10 years. In the previous round against Inter, the hosts had a tough time: after losing the first match in Milan (1:0), the Madrid side showed character and forced extra time thanks to a goal from Memphis Depay, before clinching it in the subsequent penalty shootout (2:1 after 120 minutes).

This success seems even more astonishing considering the team's performance this spring: a fiasco in the Copa del Rey semi-finals against Athletic Bilbao (4:0 on aggregate), and recent defeats against Cadiz (0:2) and Barcelona in La Liga (0:3). In the last league match, Atletico returned to the top four, defeating Villarreal away by a score of 1:2 courtesy of Axel Witsel and Saul Niguez. An interesting fact: Diego Simeone's charges have never lost at home in the Champions League playoffs, winning 10 out of 16 matches and conceding only four goals during this period. 

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia has long fallen out of the title race in the domestic championship, but is still vying for a place in the top four to secure Champions League qualification. The Black and Yellows won a crucial match before the international break against Eintracht Frankfurt (3:1), and then achieved the unimaginable - defeating Bayern at the Allianz Arena without conceding a single goal (0:2). Edin Terzic's side is having an excellent season on the continental stage: they won the group with PSG, Newcastle and Milan in the autumn, before overcoming PSV Eindhoven in the 1/8 finals.

In the first match in the Netherlands at Philips Arena, Dortmund managed a 1:1 draw, and convincingly overcame their opponents by 2:0 at home. However, the Bumblebees succumbed to Stuttgart 0:1 this past weekend, ending their winning streak - Girassi's single goal proved decisive. It's worth noting that Dortmund performs quite well away from home and has not suffered a defeat in any of their last nine matches on the road in all competitions. 

Head-to-Head

In the past, these teams have met only twice - during the group stage of the Champions League in 2018, and the sides exchanged home victories (4:0 in Dortmund and 2:0 in Madrid).

Match Prediction: Atletico – Borussia Dortmund

Despite a hiccup in the last round of the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund is in good form and has performed quite well away from home in 2024. The Black and Yellows have more than once demonstrated that they can compete equally against the top teams of the continent during the current European campaign. Conversely, Atletico has been stuck in a rut this spring, managing only three victories in their last eight matches across all competitions. With such outcomes, it seems that the Madrid side's chances of success are slightly overestimated - my bet is on Borussia Dortmund's handicap 1.

Total Goals Prediction

I don't anticipate an open game and a flurry of goals here: Borussia will be focusing on the return leg at home and will not force matters, while Atletico won't throw caution to the wind and thus risk being hit on the counter. My prediction is the total goal under 2.5.

Corner Prediction

Atletico need a home win, as the support of the home crowd plays a significant role in the playoffs. The Madrid side will take the initiative for all 90 minutes and will come out on top in terms of corners.

Yellow Card Prediction

In the current Champions League, Atletico receives 2.4 yellow cards per game, while Dortmund only 1.6. It's reasonable to bet on a victory for Atletico in terms of warnings.

Score Prediction

My bet is on the exact score of 0:0