Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning predictions and free betting tips [03/04/2024]

The Toronto Maple Leafs will host the Tampa Bay Lightning in another regular NHL championship match.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs have demonstrated significant progress, consolidating their position at 5th place in the East and third place in the Atlantic Division thanks to their home win over the Florida Panthers with a score of 6:4. This win has reduced the gap from the Panthers to 4 points and increased the lead over the Lightning to 6 points. Auston Matthews made a significant contribution by scoring two goals, including a key goal into the empty net that affirmed his top scorer league status with 62 goals. Matthews marked the 17th match of the season in which he scored 1 or more goals, setting a remarkable achievement over the last 30 years. 

In recent games, the Toronto Maple Leafs also showed strong results, earning victories over the Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres, thus the team scores an average of 3.65 goals per game and consolidates 24.4% of their power plays. The last game against the Florida Panthers showcased Toronto's offensive efficiency, particularly through Matthews' performance, who not only scored twice but also provided support in other attacks. The team demonstrated its strength, defying the Panthers' efforts to close the gap in the third period. The Maple Leafs are gearing up to play upcoming matches against Montreal, Pittsburgh, and New Jersey, looking to consolidate their position and continue their journey to success in this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning recently faced an unexpected defeat from the Detroit Red Wings with a score of 4:2, which broke their successful nine-match points streak. Despite this, the team still holds the 6th place in the Eastern Conference with 89 points (41-26-7), having outrun their closest competitors from the Capitals and Red Wings by a considerable margin - 6 and 7 points. At a crucial moment in the last game, Nikita Kucherov showed his top form, giving an assist and increasing his seasonal score to 127 points, which allowed him to share the NHL's top scorer title with Nathan MacKinnon from the Colorado Avalanche.

In defence, the Lightning demonstrates reliability, reflecting 82.9% of opponent's shots; their goalkeepers Johas Johansson and Andrei Vasilevskiy jointly reflected a significant number of shots this season. Despite recent difficulties, the team maintains optimism and a desire to improve their results in the remaining season games, especially in the forthcoming meetings with the East leaders and the teams holding lower positions in the table, such as Buffalo and Pittsburgh.

Direct Meetings

4 out of the last 5 head-to-head meetings ended in overtime: Toronto claiming 4 wins in overtime/shootouts and the only win of Tampa was during regular time 4:2. In this season, Toronto came out stronger 6:5 in overtime in November 2023 and 4:3 in October.

Prediction for the match Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning

In this meetup, two teams with fantastic offense are set to clash: The Maple Leafs scored 14 goals in their last 3 games, while Tampa has scored 9 with Kucherov being the NHL's top goal scorer. I predict a total of over 6 goals.