Finland - Latvia predictions and free betting tips [28/06/2024]

Today, the national teams of Finland and Latvia will play their final match as part of their preparations for the Olympic qualification.

Finland

Finland's squad is currently missing their leader Lauri Markkanen due to injury. However, even without him, the team has managed to hold their own, recently beating New Zealand in a tightly contested match (73-70). It's worth noting that their victory was largely due to their size advantage, as they dominated the rebounds (47-31), including offensive rebounds (16-7 in Finland's favour). Despite this significant edge, the team hasn't gained a large point advantage. Without their leader, they have had to significantly adjust their game plan, and Lassi Tuovi's squad has faced some difficulties.

Finland scores quite a bit but also concedes a lot. They play at a fast pace but focus more on attacking inside the paint, struggling with three-pointers. They typically fall short in both three-point percentage and attempts compared to their opponents, indicating a lack of focus on this area. When facing substantial resistance in the paint, the team can run into serious problems and must rely solely on fast breaks.

On average, over the last five matches, Finland's games have a total of 159 points. Considering their defensive lapse without Markkanen and their emphasis on offence, we can expect a high-scoring game, especially since this is a friendly match.

Latvia

Like their opponents, Latvia will not have their main star Kristaps Porzingis on the court. Nonetheless, the team hasn't faced any issues and is riding a five-game winning streak. These were all confident victories, and their main star doesn't frequently play for the national team. Given his injury history, the team wasn't counting on him and thus, doesn't need to reorganise their playstyle.

In their last five matches, the Latvians have started strong, winning the first half and the first quarter five times in a row. Another similarity with their opponents is their scoring capability. On average, over the last ten matches, the total points have reached 159. In the context of this friendly match, expecting an over is a likely scenario.

Head-to-Head Matchups

The teams have met several times before. In 2017-2018, there were serious battles with Finland having the upper hand, winning twice (86-84) and (80-73) while losing once (81-85). However, in their most recent friendly match in 2023, Latvia crushed Finland (94-57). With rosters not having changed much, it is reasonable to expect Latvia to dominate once again.

Prediction for the Finland vs Latvia Match

I would consider two options: Latvia to lead in the first half, as they are likely to take control early and build a cushion before the second half, and ITO. Both teams play high-scoring games, and since this is a friendly match, I don't expect tight defence.