Today, the national teams will commence their preparatory matches. Turkey, who did not qualify, will assist the Philippines in this endeavour.
Unfortunately, we will not see the Turkish team at the Olympics. Losing to Croatia was quite a surprise, given that all the key players were present. Now, they must prepare for the EuroBasket qualifiers, where their performance has been inconsistent so far, losing to Italy by 7 points and narrowly defeating an unimpressive Iceland 76-77.
Recent results indicate that the team’s gameplay is lacking, and adjustments are needed. This match for Turkey will likely be a relaxed affair, giving new faces a chance to shine. Only players from the Turkish Championship have been called up, and I believe the coach will not burden the veteran players since the championship has just concluded, prioritising the youth instead.
Over the last 5 matches, Turkey’s games consistently surpass a total of 163 points. Considering the less serious approach to this match, it will be an open game conducted at a fast pace.
The Philippine team is gearing up for the final stage of Olympic qualifiers soon. Admittedly, the team lacks strength and does not have Jordan Clarkson. The only notable player is Brownlee, who consistently scores over 20 points, yet even with a full roster, the team displayed weak performances during the World Cup held on home soil.
However, in the Asian qualifiers, the team dominated all opponents, but this still does not compare to European teams, and serious expectations should be tempered despite their current 9-1 win-loss record.
The Philippines are a very productive team, consistently scoring 80+ points per match and allowing opponents to do the same. For example, considering matches against strong European teams like Montenegro and Italy in 2023, with totals of 173 and 189, respectively, it’s evident how the team can set the tempo even with teams playing a different style. This will be apparent in the upcoming match.
These teams met twice in 2016, with Turkey decisively winning both times (103-68) and (84-76). While we do not rely on these outcomes, it shows that the scoring was high even back then.
I believe focusing on the overall match total is prudent, as both teams are high-scoring, and Turkey is unlikely to prioritise defence, instead experimenting with their gameplay. The Philippines consistently maintain a high tempo, so I recommend betting on the match total to go over.
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