The Atlanta Braves have confidently started this season with a record of 35-26. As they approached the series against the Washington Nationals, they were in good form and easily won the first game. However, in the second game, some issues in their offence became evident, and Washington secured a 2-1 victory. Surprisingly, the Nationals enter this game with a better head-to-head record, having won 4 games this season compared to Atlanta’s two victories.
The outstanding offensive play of Atlanta continues to delight their fans, although with some caveats. The injury to Ronald Acuña Jr. could significantly impact the Braves' prospects this season, as the slump has already become noticeable. The number of runs per game has dropped from 4.68 to 4.33, the lowest since 2015. Today, Charlie Morton (RHP, 3-2, 3.88 ERA) is expected to take the mound.
The hosts are having a not-so-bad season with a 28-35 record. Pre-season expectations were much more modest, yet Washington is currently ahead of both the Mets and the Marlins in the division. Trevor Williams' injury was a serious blow to the team, who signed the pitcher in December 2022 for 2 years at 13 million dollars.
He became a vital part of the rotation, and Washington may miss out on several wins due to his absence. In today's game, MacKenzie Gore is pitching, and he has already shown better control of his pitches and has become a full-fledged part of the Nationals' rotation. The left-hander has recorded 4 wins and 5 losses with a 3.57 ERA.
I don't think the Braves' offence will fail in two consecutive games. Besides, MacKenzie Gore hasn’t been at his best in recent matches. Players like Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley can produce the needed result in no time. Moreover, the Braves have a versatile team; their skilful offence and reliable defence make them favourites. Therefore, I lean towards their -1 Run Line in the match.
Atlanta's rotation is one of the best in the league. If veteran Charlie Morton starts the game successfully and gets support from the offence, it will be tough for the Nationals to rack up a significant number of runs. Most likely, it will come down to a close game, as in the previous match, and small moments will decide the outcome. Under these circumstances, the total of 8.5 is unlikely to be surpassed.
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