In the second round match of the tournament in 's-Hertogenbosch, Alexei Popyrin will face Tommy Paul.
The 24-year-old Alexei Popyrin has been hovering around the top 30 for a while but has not managed to break into it, often faltering against higher-ranked opponents and losing to those he should beat. This season, Popyrin's record stands at 10 wins and 9 losses, including a streak of five consecutive defeats that ended at the current tournament in 's-Hertogenbosch. On 28 May at the French Open, Popyrin lost to Thanasi Kokkinakis in a five-set battle (4-6, 8-6, 10-7, 5-7, 6-3). On 9 May in Rome, he succumbed to Hamad Medjedovic (3-6, 2-6). On 24 April in Madrid, he was defeated by Matteo Arnaldi (5-7, 2-6). On 16 April in Barcelona, Popyrin lost to Daniel Altmaier (3-6, 7-6, 4-6). On 11 April in Monte Carlo, he was outplayed by Alex de Minaur (3-6, 4-6).
In the first round of the 's-Hertogenbosch tournament, Popyrin defeated his compatriot Rinky Hijikata with a score of 6-4, 6-4 in 1 hour 20 minutes, recovering from a 0-2 start in the first set. Noteworthy victories include a win over Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo (6-4, 6-4) and Alexander Bublik in Doha with the same score. Beyond these, Popyrin hasn't clinched more top-tier victories.
The 27-year-old American, Tommy Paul, has consistently been in the top 15 for the past three years and is edging closer to major tournament finals, though he still seems to be missing something crucial. This year, Paul reached the semifinals of the Masters event in Rome, where he lost to Chilean Nicolás Jarry in a gruelling match (3-6, 6-3, 7-6). On his way to the semifinals, he defeated Hubert Hurkacz (7-5, 3-6, 6-3), Daniil Medvedev (6-1, 6-4), Dominik Koepfer (6-4, 6-3), and Aslan Karatsev (6-4, 6-2). This season, Paul holds a record of 21 wins and 9 losses. At Roland Garros, he performed below expectations, losing to Francisco Cerundolo (6-3, 3-6, 3-6, 2-6), but prior to that, he secured wins against Fabio Fognini (6-1, 6-0, 6-2) and Pedro Cachín (6-2, 6-3, 6-1).
In 2024, Paul won the tournament in Dallas, defeating Maxime Cressy (6-3, 7-6), Ben Shelton (6-2, 6-4), Dominik Koepfer (7-5, 6-3), and Taro Daniel (6-3, 6-2). He also reached the semifinals in Indian Wells, where he lost to Daniil Medvedev (6-3, 1-6, 7-6) following an impressive win over Casper Ruud (6-2, 1-6, 6-3).
Alexei Popyrin and Tommy Paul have faced each other three times: on 31 October 2021 in Paris, Paul won 4-6, 6-4, 6-3; on 3 February 2021 in Melbourne, Popyrin won 6-4, 6-3; and on 3 August 2019 in Montreal, Paul emerged victorious 6-4, 7-6, 6-4.
The Australian's serve might comfortably take him to a tie-break, as Paul's game on grass isn't particularly powerful. I'll take a risk and place my bet on the total games over 22.5.
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