Paula Badosa - Aryna Sabalenka predictions and free betting tips [01/06/2024]

Spanish Paula Badosa and Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka to play today in the third round of the women's tournament at Roland Garros.

Paula Badosa

Currently ranked 139th in the world, Spanish tennis player Paula Badosa has shown inconsistent results in recent tournaments largely due to injuries. Recently at the tournament in Rome, she reached the last 16, where she lost to Cori Gauff in three sets. At Roland Garros, the Spaniard has already defeated Katy Bulter and Yulia Putintseva, winning each match in three sets and spending over four hours to get through two rounds. In these games, she demonstrated powerful strokes from the baseline and aggressive actions on the reception, which is characteristic of her style of play on clay surfaces.

Despite successes at RG, doubts arise regarding Badosa's physical condition, as both matches at Roland Garros were difficult and exhausting, each played in three sets. This raises questions about her ability to withstand prolonged matches, especially considering that her next opponent will be her best friend on tour, Aryna Sabalenka, who has recently been showing outstanding results and only loses to the tour leader Swiatek. Their last meeting in Stuttgart, where Badosa retired in the third set, only highlights Paula's endurance issues.

Before Roland Garros, Badosa lost to compatriot Buzas Maneiro by a score of 1:2 in sets (6:2, 3:6, 3:6) in Madrid and to American Collins in Charleston by a score of 1:6, 4:6.

Aryna Sabalenka

The second-ranked woman in the world, Aryna Sabalenka is showing excellent form at the current Roland Garros and throughout the season. Despite losses in the last two finals on clay against Iga Swiatek, her confidence on the court has not suffered. In Paris, Sabalenka easily passed the first two rounds, defeating Erika Andreeva and Moyuka Uchijima with the same score of 6:1, 6:2, in her recognisable style with the most powerful forehand and backhand strokes without much tactics.

In her last 14 matches, Aryna won 12, highlighting her high level of play and psychological resilience. Having lost only in the finals against Swiatek in Rome and a dramatic match in Madrid in the deciding tie-break, Sabalenka demonstrated that she can effectively handle pressure at important tournaments.

Despite the last two defeats in finals, Sabalenka's mood at Roland Garros is excellent. She almost never makes unforced errors and plays excellently on reception, which makes her a dangerous opponent on clay, and she often uses drop shots, which was not notably seen before. The upcoming match with Badosa, who has not yet reached such a level of mastery on clay courts, promises to be more a test of Sabalenka's stability than a serious challenge.

Head-to-head

With Paula Badosa, Aryna has had a positive experience in previous meetings, winning the last four matches, making her the clear favourite for the upcoming match. The first encounter took place on 23 April 2022 in Stuttgart, where Sabalenka won with a score of 2:0 in sets. On 21 April 2023 also in Stuttgart, Sabalenka claimed victory with a result of 2:1 in sets. On 23 March 2024 in Miami, Sabalenka won again, this time with a score of 2:0. The last meeting took place on 17 April again in Stuttgart - Badosa retired in the third set.

Match forecast Badosa - Sabalenka

In the match of friends, the Belarusian sportswoman is the clear favourite; Badosa has already faced problems with far from the most stable tennis players in the first two rounds, while Aryna spent twice less time on the court, devastating everyone. I expect Sabalenka to win with a handicap of (-4.5) games.