Today as part of the English Cup quarterfinals, Manchester City will host Newcastle United. In the previous round, City demolished modest Luton Town 6:2, while the Magpies prevailed over Championship's Blackburn Rovers in a penalty shootout.
Manchester City: Ortega; Walker, Dias, Ake, Guardiola; Rodri, Kovacic; Bobb, Alvarez, Doku; Holland.
Newcastle United: Dubravka; Livramento, Schær, Botman, Bern; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock; Murphy, Isak, Almiron.
As the reigning English Cup holders, Manchester City are logically the favourites to lift the trophy this season. In previous rounds, the Citizens prevailed over Huddersfield (5:0), Tottenham (0:1), and Luton (2:6). Occupying third place in the Premier League table and trailing leading Arsenal by just one point, Pep Guardiola's men are contending for a fourth consecutive domestic title. Unbeaten in their last 13 matches (10 wins, 3 draws), the Sky Blues drew 1:1 with Liverpool last weekend. John Stones put the Mancunians ahead in the first half, but after the break, the Reds fought back with renewed vigour and quickly levelled thanks to a penalty from Alexis McAllister. Importantly, Manchester City made it to the Champions League quarterfinals, demolishing Copenhagen 6:2 on aggregate, and will face Real Madrid in April.
Since the start of the previous season, the Citizens have won all nine recent English Cup matches with an aggregate score of 31:3, and now the hosts aim to become the first team in tournament history to reach the semifinals for the sixth consecutive time. The team's squad will be without goalkeeper Ederson, injured in the game against Liverpool at the weekend, and playmaker De Bruyne, but winger Jack Grealish is expected to return. It's unknown whether Pep Guardiola will make any lineup changes compared to the last round. Norway's Holland is the Premier League's top scorer with 18 goals, but he has been out of form lately, unlike midfielders Rodri and Bernardo Silva.
Newcastle haven't been fortunate enough to play at home in the current national Cup campaign, but that didn't prevent the Magpies from beating Sunderland (0:3), Fulham (0:2), and Blackburn (1:1, penalty qualifying). However, the Black and Whites fell short of fans' expectations in the Premier League, where they currently occupy only the tenth place in the league table. In the last four rounds, Eddie Howe's men have won just once with two defeats: following a win over Wolverhampton, Newcastle fell to Chelsea on Monday with a score of 3:2. A brilliant strike from Alexander Isak cancelled out Nicolas Jackson's early goal, but Cole Palmer and Mihail Mudryi, who scored in the second half, gave control of the game back to the Blues, while Jacob Murphy in the 90th minute merely softened the pill for the guests.
It's been 69 years since Newcastle last won the English Cup - in 1955. Moreover, since the 2004-05 season, the Stripes haven't made it to the semifinals of this tournament, twice dropping out of the quarterfinals - in 2006 and 2020. Newcastle still lack critical players due to injuries: goalkeeper Pope, lateral Kieran Trippier, key midfielder Joelinton, winger Barnes, and striker Harry Wilson (7 goals). In addition, midfielder Sandro Tonali is disqualified, and the participation of experienced Berna and Gordon remains questionable. The Magpies' attack will undoubtedly be lead by Swedish forward Isak (11 goals), while Bruno Guimaraes orchestrates the black-and-white's midfield.
In the league, Manchester City beat Newcastle at home (1:0) and away (2:3). However, in late September, the Citizens lost to the Magpies in the 1/32nd Cup final (1:0).
Considering City's impressive home unbeaten streak of 37 matches, it's hard to envisage a triumph from the Magpies this evening. Even under an intense calendar, Guardiola's charges manage to keep a high-performance standard, and a second consecutive treble doesn't seem implausible this season. The visitors are experiencing a number of player availability issues and are unlikely to mount a decent resistance at the Etihad - I'm backing the favourite with a handicap of -1.5.
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