On Thursday, 20 June, Juventude will host Vasco da Gama in the 10th round of Brazil's Serie A. The home side currently sits in 11th place on the league table with 10 points from eight matches, while the visitors are in 15th place with seven points.
The match will take place in Caxias do Sul at the Alfredo Jaconi Stadium.
After eight opening matches, Juventude has secured two victories, four draws, and two losses, leaving them five points shy of the top six. Last week, Verdao ended a four-match unbeaten streak with a 2-1 defeat to RB Bragantino, who played with ten men for nearly 80 minutes. Elinho scored a brace after Mandaca's first-half goal, but Juventude missed numerous opportunities and ultimately paid the price.
Despite this setback, Roger Machado's tenure as manager has been impressive on home turf, with just one loss in 12 matches across all competitions. The team remains unbeaten at home this year. It's worth noting that the white-greens have struggled offensively, scoring more than once in a match only once in their last six games across all competitions. They have also secured just one clean sheet in those six encounters.
Vasco da Gama became the first Brazilian team not to advance to the Copa Sudamericana play-offs, and based on their first nine matches of this season, they seem set for another struggle to qualify for this continental tournament. The black-and-whites have managed just one victory in the league, with four draws and four losses, and have failed to win any of their last three matches. A fortnight ago, Felipe Loureiro's men suffered a crushing 6-1 defeat to Flamengo and failed to score in their last two matches, losing 2-0 to Palmeiras and drawing 0-0 with Cruzeiro.
The biggest issue for Vasco is undoubtedly their defence, having conceded 19 goals, the most in the division, and four more than relegation-threatened Vitoria. Furthermore, the visitors have lost all four of their away games this season, conceding two or more goals in three of those matches, and have only scored in two of those outings.
The last time these teams faced each other was in 2009, when Vasco secured a 2-1 home victory.
Juventude has shown promising form at the start of the season and could aim for a top-six finish, while the visitors are struggling near the relegation zone and are far from their best form. Considering the absence of Dimitri Payet, it is unlikely the visitors will succeed on foreign soil (having not earned a single point in their four away matches). My prediction is a triumph for the home team with a zero handicap.
Vasco da Gama holds the unwanted record for the most goals conceded (19) in Brazil's Serie A this season, while the hosts score an average of one goal per game. I am betting on Juventude's individual total over 1.
Juventude, buoyed by home support, will play on the front foot and attack more often, so a bet on the white-greens to win the corner count makes sense.
Juventude earns an average of three bookings per game, while the visitors average just 2.4. It is reasonable to bet that the hosts will at least match the visitors in this regard.
I predict a 2-1 victory for Juventude.
# | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | G | PTS | |
1 | Botafogo | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 52:26 | 68 | |
2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 54:27 | 64 | |
3 | Fortaleza | 33 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 47:32 | 63 | |
4 | Flamengo | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 51:37 | 59 | |
5 | Internacional | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 46:28 | 59 | |
6 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 47:34 | 57 | |
7 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 38:35 | 47 | |
8 | Bahia | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 43:42 | 46 | |
9 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -13 | 36:49 | 43 | |
10 | Atletico Mineiro | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | -4 | 42:46 | 42 | |
11 | Corinthians | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -2 | 39:41 | 41 | |
12 | Gremio | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | -4 | 38:42 | 39 | |
13 | Vitoria | 33 | 11 | 5 | 17 | -10 | 38:48 | 38 | |
14 | Fluminense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | -8 | 28:36 | 37 | |
15 | Criciuma | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 39:48 | 37 | |
16 | Juventude | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -12 | 40:52 | 37 | |
17 | RB Bragantino | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | -6 | 34:40 | 36 | |
18 | Athletico Paranaense | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -7 | 34:41 | 34 | |
19 | Cuiaba | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 25:41 | 29 | |
20 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -26 | 24:50 | 26 | |
1 | Fortaleza | 17 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 29:8 | 43 | |
2 | Palmeiras | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 33:12 | 38 | |
3 | Sao Paulo | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 28:14 | 38 | |
4 | Botafogo | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 28:11 | 37 | |
5 | Internacional | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 26:13 | 35 | |
6 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 25:17 | 34 | |
7 | Cruzeiro | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 27:13 | 34 | |
8 | Bahia | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 21:12 | 32 | |
9 | Vasco da Gama | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 25:21 | 31 | |
10 | Corinthians | 16 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 29:16 | 29 | |
11 | Juventude | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 26:22 | 29 | |
12 | RB Bragantino | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 20:16 | 26 | |
13 | Gremio | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 22:20 | 25 | |
14 | Atletico Mineiro | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 24:23 | 24 | |
15 | Fluminense | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 17:14 | 24 | |
16 | Vitoria | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20:22 | 23 | |
17 | Criciuma | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 20:19 | 23 | |
18 | Athletico Paranaense | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 19:18 | 18 | |
19 | Atletico Goianiense | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 13:22 | 17 | |
20 | Cuiaba | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 13:17 | 14 | |
1 | Botafogo | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 24:15 | 31 | |
2 | Palmeiras | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 21:15 | 26 | |
3 | Flamengo | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 26:20 | 25 | |
4 | Internacional | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 20:15 | 24 | |
5 | Fortaleza | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 18:24 | 20 | |
6 | Sao Paulo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19:20 | 19 | |
7 | Atletico Mineiro | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 18:23 | 18 | |
8 | Athletico Paranaense | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 15:23 | 16 | |
9 | Vitoria | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 18:26 | 15 | |
10 | Cuiaba | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 12:24 | 15 | |
11 | Bahia | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 22:30 | 14 | |
12 | Gremio | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 16:22 | 14 | |
13 | Criciuma | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 19:29 | 14 | |
14 | Cruzeiro | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11:22 | 13 | |
15 | Fluminense | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 11:22 | 13 | |
16 | Vasco da Gama | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 11:28 | 12 | |
17 | Corinthians | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10:25 | 12 | |
18 | RB Bragantino | 17 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14:24 | 10 | |
19 | Atletico Goianiense | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 11:28 | 9 | |
20 | Juventude | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 14:30 | 8 |
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