Peru - Chile predictions and free betting tips [22/06/2024]

On Saturday, June 22, in the opening match of the Copa America group stage, Peru will meet with Chile's national team. In 2024, the red and white team remains unbeaten and is ready to make some noise in the upcoming tournament, whereas the Chileans crushed Paraguay in a friendly match last week.

Projected Line-ups

Peru: Gallese; Callens, Zambrano, Abram; Advincula, Peña, Cartagena, Castillo, López; Lapadula, Guerrero.

The Peruvian coaching staff has made some surprising choices for their Copa America squad, notably leaving out experienced players Tapia (Celta Vigo) and Trauco. Centre-back Yotun has been injured for a long time, and forward Alex Valera (3 goals in 15 matches), initially included, withdrew for personal reasons. Nevertheless, the well-known roster includes goalkeeper Gallese (Orlando City), defenders Advincula (Boca Juniors), Callens (AEK Athens), López (Feyenoord), and Abram (Atlanta United), midfielders Cueva (16 goals), Peña (Malmö), and Castillo (Gil Vicente), as well as forwards Carrillo (Al-Qadsiah, 11 goals) and Lapadula (Cagliari, 9 goals).

Capping off the squad are veteran captain Paolo Guerrero (39 goals), who continues to play professionally in Latin America, and Edison Flores (16 goals). Notably, Flores netted the only goal in a friendly against El Salvador in June, equalling Franco Navarro's tally for the national team. Zambrano will fortify 'Los Incas' defence, while Cartagena will feature in the holding midfield position.

Chile: Bravo; Isla, Maripán, Díaz, Suazo; Núñez, Pulgar; Dávila, Sánchez, Valdés; Vargas.

This year, Chile's squad continues to rely on the experienced Alexis Sánchez (Inter Milan, 51 goals in 163 matches) and Eduardo Vargas (Atlético Mineiro, 42 goals in 109 matches) in attack. Of course, there’s also goalkeeper Bravo (Betis, 148 matches), defenders Isla (Independiente, 139 matches), Maripán (Monaco), Díaz (River Plate), and Suazo (Toulouse), along with midfielders Valdés (América), Núñez (Norwich), and Osorio (Midtjylland). Defensive midfielder Erick Pulgar can reach 50 caps if he plays on Saturday night.

Ben Brereton Díaz (Sheffield United, 30 matches, 7 goals) should also be watched for; he performed well in the latter part of last season in the Premier League. However, Vidal (142 matches, 34 goals) and Medel (161 matches) were not selected by the coaching staff for this tournament, while midfielder Juan Delgado (Sheffield Wednesday) is injured. Initially called-up young defender Felipe Loyola also had to leave the squad due to injury.

Stadium

The match will be held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Peru

The Peruvian national team reached the Copa 2019 final and finished fourth in the 2021 edition but will need to work hard to advance from Group A this time. 'Los Incas', who did not participate in the recent World Cup, have garnered only two points from six qualifiers for the next World Cup, logically finding themselves at the bottom of the CONCACAF qualification table. However, Trauco's team regained their vigour in March 2024, winning two friendlies against modest Nicaragua (2:0) and the Dominican Republic (4:1).

In preparation for Copa America, the Peruvians faced Paraguay in June, drawing 0:0, and then narrowly defeating modest El Salvador 1:0 thanks to a first-half goal from Edison Flores. In general, the Peruvians have yet to lose in 2024 (3 wins and 1 draw), conceding just one goal in four matches. Notably, in 2016, when the continental tournament was also held in the USA, Peru won their group for the first and only time in this century, remaining unbeaten through three rounds.

Chile

Conversely, Chile has won 2 of the last 4 Copa Americas, in 2015 and 2016, during their 'golden era'. Since then, 'La Roja' finished fourth in 2019 and failed to reach the quarter-finals in 2021, without appearing in World Cups since 2014. 'La Roja' started their qualification campaign for the next World Cup poorly, winning just once in the first six matches and occupying the 8th spot in the standings (out of 10). In March, the nominal visitors achieved a resounding victory over Albania (0:3) in a friendly, followed by a dramatic 3:2 loss to France at the Velodrome.

Last week, the Chilean team thrashed Paraguay (3:0) thanks to a brace from Víctor Dávila and a goal from Eduardo Vargas. An interesting fact: since 2020, 'La Roja' has lost only once after opening the score (precisely against France); however, Gareca's side struggles to create chances in attack, failing to score in three of their last six matches across all competitions.

Head-to-Head Meetings

These teams frequently clash, with Chile leading in head-to-head victories (46 compared to Peru's 24). Last October, 'La Roja' comfortably defeated 'Los Incas' in World Cup qualifiers (2:0).

Prediction for Peru vs. Chile

Although Chile has rarely delighted their fans with recent successes, the 2016 Copa America champions are eager to shine on the continental stage. The problem is that the nominal visitors have struggled with generational change for several years, forcing the coaching staff to rely on the national team's veterans. Peru looks lively in 2024 and has achieved success in previous tournaments—I'll risk betting that 'Los Incas' will at least not lose tonight.

Prediction for the Total

Neither side is known for high scoring, and they haven't exchanged goals in the last five meetings. We are likely to see cautious football from both teams this time, so I'm betting on a total under 2.5.

Prediction for Corners

All the action will unfold in the midfield, with not many dangerous moments. I'm betting on the total corners in the match being under 9.5.

Prediction for Yellow Cards

If there's one thing these teams love, it's duels: in all three most recent encounters, there were at least four bookings. I'm betting on the total yellow cards in the match being over 3.5.

Score Prediction

I'm going for a 0:0 draw.