Osasuna - Atletico Madrid predictions and free betting tips [28/09/2023]

Today, as part of the 17th round of the Spanish Primera, Osasuna will host Atletico on their home turf. The hosts are keen to avoid a fifth straight game without a victory across all competitions, while Atletico managed to overcome Real with a score of 3:1 over the weekend.

Predicted Line-ups

Osasuna: Herrera; Pena, Catena, D. Garcia, Cruz; Munoz, Torro, Oros; Avila, Budimir, Mohica.

Atletico: Oblak; Savic, Giménez, Hermoso; Molina, Saul, Llorente, Koke, Lino; Griezmann, Morata.

Osasuna

Osasuna had a rocky start to the new season, currently having only two matches under their belt. Additionally, the Red-Blues have struggled in their last four consecutive matches across all competitions, including two losses in their last three La Liga meetings. Prior to the international break, the Basques fell short against Barcelona (1:2), followed by a loss against Getafe (3:2). Over the past weekend, attempting to avoid a third defeat, they managed to secure a 0:0 draw with Sevilla (landing only two shots on target out of 16 attempts), and currently sit at the 11th spot in the league table. Osasuna hasn't had a single home win in the first four home matches in all competitions this campaign, having lost three times and only managed to score twice.

Their midfielder Brasanac, who has been out since April, remains unavailable, as do young star Unai Garcia (who scored 21 goals last season) and Moncayola (who made three assists last year). Therefore, the biggest issues for the team remain a weak strategic implementation: none of the home side's players have scored more than two goals, in spite of having Ante Budimir (8 goals last season) and Chimy Avila (8 goals, 2 assists last season) in their squad. It is expected that team coach Arrasate will choose a four-man defence consisting of Ruben Pena, Alejandro Catena, David Garcia, and Juan Cruz; with goalkeeper Aitor Fernandez being replaced by Sergio Herrera. The striking trio of Ezequiel Avila, Ante Budimir, and Johan Mohica is likely to retain their slots in the final third of the field.

Atletico

The long-awaited victory of Atletico over Real Madrid on Sunday evening, courtesy of coach Simeone's troops (3:1), was a much-needed morale boost. Two goals from Alvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann in the final 18 minutes of the match helped the Red-and-Whites take control, with the Los Blancos responding with a single goal by Toni Kroos. Simeone won the tactical battle, perfectly exploiting his rival's weak sides in the wings (a major disadvantage in Ancelotti's 4-4-2 diamond scheme), resulting in three goals derived from crosses. This was a much-needed victory for the Rojiblancos, especially after a humiliating defeat against Valencia (3:0) and a draw with Lazio in Rome (1:1). The team currently sits at the sixth spot in the La Liga table with 10 points in their kitty.

Barrios, who scored a goal in the Champions League against Lazio, couldn't make it to the Madrid derby squad due to injury. Not only he, but also Reinildo (ACL rupture), Lemar (Achilles tendon fracture), Seoyunju (a new recruit from Leicester), World Cup champion De Paul and Vitolonon (who returned with an injury after a summer rental) had to view the game from the sidelines. There’s good news on the horizon though. Memphis Depay, returning ahead of the Madrid derby training, however, the Dutchman still isn't available to hit the field. Captain Koke, having recovered from a knee injury, played the first 45 minutes and the 31-year old is set to appear in midfield again, although he will face competition from the likes of Axel Witsel, Marcos Llorente, and Saul.

Head-to-head

The Madrid-trained side has notched up victories in all their last 10 encounters with Osasuna, including five successive away wins with an overall score of 15:1.

Prediction for Osasuna - Atletico match

Atletico is being tipped as the favourites for a win on Thursday, and rightly so, given their prospects of a max point harvest when they play Osasuna. Only Barcelona and Girona (16 points each) have clocked up more points in the current La Liga campaign than the Madrid giants (13). Contrarily, the hosts have not secured a single victory in their last four meetings and are now stuck midway through the league table. I don't foresee an upset and will bet on an Atletico win with a 0 handicap.