Fluminense - Flamengo predictions and free betting tips [23/06/2024]

On Sunday Fluminense will host Flamengo in the 11th round of the Brazilian Série A. The hosts are languishing at the bottom of the table, while the visitors proudly occupy the top spot, boasting an impressive eight-match unbeaten streak.

Fluminense

Fluminense is currently at the very bottom of the table with just 6 points. Despite a stellar group stage campaign in the Copa Libertadores, where they topped the group ahead of Colo-Colo and Cerro Porteño, their league form has been abysmal. Last weekend saw a 2-1 defeat to Atlético Goianiense, following a 1-0 loss to Botafogo. Their woes continued mid-week with a 2-0 defeat to Cruzeiro. Williams scored early, and a late goal sealed their fate. With only two goals in the last four rounds, the coaching staff is rightfully concerned.

Their defensive frailty is glaring, having conceded 18 goals—the second worst in the league after Vasco da Gama (21). Goalkeeper Fábio has recently returned to action. John Arias (Colombia) is called for the Copa America and will miss upcoming games. Lelé, André (3 matches), Samuel Javier (5 matches), Manoel, and Real Madrid legend Marcelo are doubtful due to injuries. However, coach Fernando Diniz can rely on experienced Ganso (2 goals, 2 assists), 21-year-old striker Marquinhos (2 goals in the Copa Libertadores), and Douglas Costa (no goals or assists in the last seven league matches). Felipe Melo will be tasked with holding the midfield together.

Flamengo

In stark contrast to Fluminense, Flamengo occupies the top spot in the league table. The red and blacks have not lost since 8 May across all competitions, securing seven wins in the process. Their only setback was a 1-1 draw against Atlético Paranaense. This draw was swiftly forgotten after a 2-1 victory over Bahia last week, with Gerson and Everton exchanging goals, and David Luiz scoring the winner in the 95th minute. Flamengo is yet to lose away from home this season, boasting two wins and three draws in five away matches. They have scored 10 goals on the road—the best in the league this season.  

Midfielder Igor Thiago is absent due to injury, along with Uruguayans Arrascaeta, De La Cruz, Varela, Viña, and Pulgar (Chile), who are on Copa America duty. David Luiz and Fabrício Bruno have returned from suspensions and are expected to start. Gabriel Barbosa, top scorer Pedro (3 goals, 4 assists), and Luís Araújo (3 goals) form the attacking trio, while Gerson and Ortiz will anchor the midfield. Wesley and Lucas will man the flanks, with Rossi guarding the net.

Head-to-Head

Fluminense has faced Flamengo three times in 2024 and has not won any of those matches, losing twice. Moreover, they have not beaten the red and blacks in their last eight encounters.

Prediction: Fluminense vs Flamengo

Fluminense is due for a turnaround sooner or later, especially given their recent Copa Libertadores glory. However, a derby comeback seems highly unlikely. Flamengo has not lost since 8 May and rightfully leads the league. Additionally, Fluminense's squad is weakened by injuries. Betting on a victory for Tite's men in the derby seems a safe option.

Total Goals Prediction

Fluminense has the second-worst defensive record in the Brazilian Série A, conceding 18 goals in 10 matches, while Flamengo is the league's top scorers. Bet on the visitors' Individual Total Over (ITO) 1.5 goals.