USA - Uruguay predictions and free betting tips [02/07/2024]

The third-round clash of Group C in Copa America between the United States and Uruguay is set to take place on 2 July at the Arrowhead Stadium.

Probable Line-ups

United States: Joe Scally, Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Antonee Robinson, Giovanni Reyna, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Josh Sargent, Folarin Balogun, Christian Pulisic.

Uruguay: Sergio Rochet, Nahitan Nández, Ronald Araújo, Mathias Olivera, Matías Viña, Federico Valverde, Manuel Ugarte, Nicolás de la Cruz, Facundo Pellistri, Darwin Núñez, Mathías Araújo.

Group C Situation

Uruguay has practically secured progression and will advance even if they lose to the United States, securing the second spot. Uruguay boasts 6 points with a goal difference of +7 (8 goals scored and 1 conceded). The United States, on the other hand, will be keeping an eye on the parallel match between Panama and Bolivia. If Panama does not win and the United States does not lose, they will progress to the playoffs. The United States has 3 points with a goal difference of +1 (3 goals scored and 2 conceded). Panama also has 3 points but with a goal difference of -1 (3 goals scored and 4 conceded). Bolivia has already bid farewell to the tournament, with 0 points and a goal difference of -7 (0 goals scored and 7 conceded), but Panama will play for victory as a draw might not be sufficient for them.

United States

The US team started Copa America with a convincing win over Bolivia (2:0), where the main contributions came from Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun. This success temporarily appeased critics of head coach Gregg Berhalter, despite a series of unsuccessful friendlies before the tournament. However, in the next match against Panama, the Americans lost 1:2, raising doubts about their chances of advancing from the group, especially considering the red card to Timothy Weah who foolishly lashed out in a safe situation in the middle of the pitch.
Despite an early goal from Balogun, the US could not hold onto the lead, with Panama managing to equalise and snatch victory in the dying minutes. Despite the loss, the US still has a chance to advance to the playoffs, but they must win the final group stage match against Uruguay, who are already progressing. Complicating matters, the Americans need to rely on the result of the parallel match between Panama and Bolivia, as a win for Panama combined with a loss to Uruguay could knock the US out of the tournament. The United States has not frequently participated in Copa America; this is only their fifth tournament, but they have previously reached the semifinals.

Uruguay

The Uruguay team has shown excellent form at Copa America, securing a place in the playoffs with two confident victories in the group stage. In their first match, Uruguay triumphed over Panama 3:1, and the second round brought a resounding 5:0 victory against Bolivia. In these matches, they scored 8 goals and could have netted more, demonstrating one of the best offensive performances in the current tournament. Under Marcelo Bielsa’s guidance, Uruguay has shown not only efficiency but also tactical flexibility, with standouts Darwin Núñez and Maximiliano Araújo.

Uruguay continues to showcase a strong attack in the current Copa America, marked by an impressive expected goals (xG) statistic. Darwin Núñez, who has already scored twice in the tournament, stands out, while winger Araújo has contributed with two goals and one assist. Viña and Facundo Pellistri have each added a goal and an assist. This highlights that Uruguay’s offensive prowess is not reliant on a single player but rather the result of a coordinated team effort under Bielsa’s leadership. Ahead of the final group match against the United States, Uruguay has already secured their place in the next stage, allowing Bielsa the potential to rotate the squad and preserve key players for the more critical playoff battles. As one of the most decorated teams in Copa America, Uruguay has not surpassed the quarter-finals in the last 4 tournaments. However, the team’s current form and convincing group stage performances position them as serious contenders for the tournament title.

Head-to-Head

The United States and Uruguay have met 5 times. Uruguay has won twice, including a 3:0 victory at the 1924 Olympics. In the 1993 Copa America, Uruguay also defeated the US 1:0. The US secured their only win in a friendly match on 12 May 2002, with a 2:1 victory. The remaining two matches ended in draws. On 11 September 2019, the teams played to a 1:1 draw in a friendly, and in 2022, they played to a goalless draw.

Prediction for USA vs Uruguay

I would venture to bet on a total over 2 goals. The Uruguayans might play more relaxed, and Bielsa could give the reserves a chance to play, while the Americans need a win and will press forward. The attack for both teams surpasses their defence substantially, setting the stage for a thrilling match.