Portugal - Slovenia predictions and free betting tips [01/07/2024]

In the Round of 16 of the European Championship, Portugal will face Slovenia on 1 July at the Deutsche Bank Park stadium in Frankfurt.

Expected Line-ups

Portugal: Diogo Costa (GK), João Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Pepe, Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, João Palhinha, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo (C), Rafael Leão

Slovenia: Jan Oblak (GK) (C), Žan Karničnik, Vid Drkušić, Jaka Bijol, Erik Janža, Petar Stojanović, Adam Gnezda Čerin, Tima Maršanič, Jan Mlakar, Andraž Šporar, Benjamin Šeško

Portugal's Squad for the Play-offs

Roberto Martínez decided to take a risk in the third round of the group stage and fielded the second team, which backfired. Compared to the first two matches against Georgia, only goalkeeper Diogo Costa, João Palhinha, and the eternal legend, the 39-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo retained their places. The tactical reasoning behind Ronaldo's inclusion might be questioned, but it is clear he wants to cement his legacy.

Goalkeeper

The first-choice goalkeeper is undoubtedly Diogo Costa. He outperformed the veteran Rui Patrício a while back and will be between the sticks today.

Defence

Martínez changed the formation throughout the tournament. They played with two central defenders, Pepe and Rúben Dias, in the first match and with four in the second. The 41-year-old Pepe is a guaranteed starter alongside Rúben Dias, who had an outstanding season at Manchester City. Nuno Mendes from PSG will play on the left, and his partner João Cancelo on the right. Youngsters António Silva and Inácio, who played against Georgia, did not convince Martínez and will not be featuring in this vital match, nor will Danilo Pereira, who is capable of playing as a defensive midfielder.

Midfield

Vitinha, João Palhinha, and Bernardo Silva featured in the first two matches, as did Bruno Fernandes. João Palhinha, having played all three matches, rightly earned his spot, as did the impressive Vitinha from PSG. There's no need to discuss Bernardo Silva—he's the team's leader in chance creation.

Attack

There's nothing to say about Cristiano Ronaldo—he's assured to start. Though he leads in attempts, he still hasn’t scored, akin to Romelu Lukaku. In the 3-5-2 formation, or on the wing in the 4-3-3, Ronaldo will be partnered by Rafael Leão, the vibrant leader of AC Milan. João Félix played in the third match but has long fallen out of favour both at the club level and with the national team.

Slovenia's Squad for the Play-offs

Matjaž Kek does not have two equally competitive squads like Portugal, but that did not stop Slovenia from advancing to the play-offs. Kek employs a 4-4-2 formation and rarely changes the starting line-up. The only absentee against Portugal is the first goal scorer of the tournament, left-back Janža, due to yellow card accumulation.

Goalkeeper

The position of local football legend Jan Oblak is beyond question, even though he has somewhat declined since his best years at Atlético Madrid.

Defence

Former CSKA player Jaka Bijol and current Sochi defender Vid Drkušić have formed the central defensive duo for all three matches. On the right, this season's revelation Žan Karničnik, who scored against Serbia, will play. Gregor Sikošek will likely replace Janža on the left.

Midfield

Adam Gnezda and Tima Maršanič played all three matches in the central midfield, as did Jan Mlakar on the left and Petar Stojanović on the right. Everything remains unchanged here. Benjamin Verbič, Žan Celar, and Jon Gorenc Stanković have not convinced Kek so far. Kek gave a chance to veteran Josip Iličić with a beautiful story of overcoming depression, though he will likely not feature in the play-offs.

Attack

The main hope is young forward Benjamin Šeško from the RB system. His partner will be the 30-year-old Andraž Šporar from Panathinaikos.

Portugal

Traditionally considered one of the favourites, Portugal confirmed their status in the group stage of the 2024 European Championship, securing a place in the play-offs already after the first two matches. The team started with victories over the Czech Republic (2-1) and Turkey (3-0), demonstrating high-quality play and ball possession, which allowed them to top their group with 6 points. However, the last group stage match against Georgia ended in a 0-2 defeat, revealing certain issues, especially in finishing attacks, even with the nominal second team. Portugal also stood out among the leaders in creating goal-scoring chances in the tournament, amassing a 5.8 xG, indicating potent attacking play. Despite this, their conversion rate remained a concern, especially after failing to score against Georgia. This match marked Portugal’s first official loss under Roberto Martínez, though he was consciously testing the squad and likely not overly disappointed that his team drew Slovenia.A key element for the Portuguese national team remains Cristiano Ronaldo, who, despite his age, continues to be a significant figure in the attack, a fact some fans of the Portuguese side aren't thrilled about. Ronaldo, holding the record for the most goals at the Euros, has yet to score in this tournament, which is attracting much media and fan attention. In the first two matches against the Czech Republic and Turkey, Portugal showcased aggressive and effective football, scoring 5 goals and conceding only one. Roberto Martínez preferred the 4-3-3 formation to maximize the potential of attacking players like Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, who were involved in most of the team’s attacking actions. However, there are questions regarding Ronaldo's involvement.

Slovenia

Despite modest potential compared to European giants, Slovenia successfully navigated the group stage of Euro 2024, finishing all matches in a draw and advancing without a single victory, making them one of the tournament's surprises. Matjaž Kek's team demonstrated excellent organisation, holding off the likes of England, Denmark, and Serbia. The Slovenes showcased solid defence, a crucial factor in achieving three draws: 0-0 with England, and 1-1 with Denmark and Serbia. Unlike many teams, Slovenia lacked the depth for extensive squad rotation, forcing the manager to rely on core players in each of the three matches. The success was built not only on tactical discipline and a strong defensive scheme but also the outstanding performances by goalkeeper Jan Oblak, who, despite his age and less successful club season, remained a reliable last line of defence.

Equally impressive were contributions from players familiar to Russian fans, Jaka Bijol and Vid Drkušić, who provided solidity in central defence, successfully handling opposition strikers. The midfield, featuring Gnezda and Maršanič, also performed admirably, particularly in carrying out defensive duties. The exceptional performances of wide defenders Karničnik and Janža, who scored Slovenia's only goals, highlight the impact of losing Janža for the match against Portugal. The group stage analysis indicates that Slovenia not only survived a challenging group but also demonstrated they could compete on equal footing with more prestigious opponents. Kek's tactics and his players' discipline could turn the upcoming match against Portugal into another rigorous test for Slovenia, ready to show that teamwork can outshine even the most star-studded line-ups.

Head-to-Head

The teams have not faced each other before.

Prediction for the Portugal vs Slovenia Match

Everyone is expecting an easy victory for Portugal, but their inefficacy in the group stages and Slovenia's incredible discipline suggests otherwise. I expect Kek’s side to lose, if at all, by a minimal margin.

Prediction for Yellow Cards

If things start to go awry for Portugal, they might resort to rough play, and the Slovenes will defend by all means necessary. Betting on a total of over 3.5 yellow cards is a safe bet.