England - Slovenia predictions and free betting tips [25/06/2024]

Today at 19:00 the RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne will host the third-round Group C Euro match between England and Slovenia.

Probable Line-ups

England: Jordan Pickford, Kyle Walker, John Stones, Marc Guehi, Kieran Trippier, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Harry Kane.Slovenia: Jan Oblak, Žiga Kous, Vanja Drkušić, Jaka Bijol, Erik Janža, Petar Stojanović, Adam Gnezda Čerin, Timi Elsnik, Jan Mlakar, Andraž Šporar, Benjamin Šeško.

Group C Standings

Group C at Euro 2024 is heating up as we approach the final round. Leaders England, with 4 points, can secure the top spot in the group if they triumph over Slovenia. Even a draw will ensure the English team's progression from the group stage no lower than second place. Denmark and Slovenia both have 2 points, but the Danes are seen as the favourites to advance, thanks to their superior performances in the tournament. A Danish victory over Serbia almost guarantees them a spot in the playoffs from second place if England wins. Even if Denmark finishes third, they are in a strong position to progress as one of the best third-placed teams, thanks to their goal difference, putting them in a more favourable spot compared to other third-placed teams, such as Hungary.
For Serbia, the situation is critical—they have yet to earn any points and are trailing in goal difference. They need a win over Denmark to keep their qualification hopes alive, but given their previous performances, this task seems tough. The Serbians have struggled with efficiency and overall organisation in their play, making their current challenge nearly insurmountable.

England

The English national team under Gareth Southgate has sparked extensive debate among fans and critics during Euro 2024, despite leading Group C with 4 points after 2 matches. The main criticism revolves around their playing style, which many find dull and limiting for talented attacking players like Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden, who are often forced into defensive roles. At Euro 2024, the English squad continues to adhere to a defensive strategy that previously guided them to the final of the last championship. During qualifying, Southgate's team netted 22 goals, but in Germany, they have struggled with shot frequency, ranking among the worst in this metric since the 1980 European Championships. This is particularly disappointing given their exceptional attacking talent. Should they fail in the tournament, many predict Southgate's imminent departure.

The opening match against Serbia ended in a narrow victory due to an early goal from Bellingham, after which England sat back and created nothing. The second game with Denmark followed a similar pattern after Kane's goal, but the Danes, being more experienced, managed to equalise 1-1. The statistics tell a story: 49% possession in this match and 51% overall in the tournament with just 17 shots over two games. No matches have been duller in this otherwise exciting tournament. England faces Slovenia in their final group game, where even a draw will secure their place in the playoffs, but dropping points could cost them the top spot in the group.

Slovenia

Under the guidance of Matjaž Kek, the Slovenian national team has exceeded expectations at Euro 2024, performing admirably in the group stage. Despite lacking standout stars, they demonstrated solid play in qualification and continued this form in the tournament, remaining unbeaten. In their opener against Denmark, they held out for a draw, converting one of their few chances late in the game—thanks to a goal from left-back Erik Janža—despite having only 32% possession. In their next match against Serbia, despite dominating chances, they failed to hold onto their lead after right-back Žiga Kous scored, conceding a late equaliser from Luka Jović off a corner. Their possession was 36%, but Slovenia doesn't need much of the ball. Kek's strategy of robust defence and counter-attacks has allowed Slovenia to compete respectably against more skilled opponents. Jan Oblak has been a key figure in goal, as expected. Defenders Vanja Drkušić and Jaka Bijol, with their experience from the Russian Premier League, also deserve highlighted praise for their consistent performances.

Now, Slovenia faces the task of proving their resilience under pressure against England. With 2 points and holding third place in the group, their chances of making the playoffs are slim.

Head-to-Head

England has won 5 out of their 6 previous encounters with Slovenia, with the teams rarely meeting in major tournaments. Their only match at such a level took place at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, where England won 1-0 thanks to a Jermain Defoe goal. The latest matches were in the 2018 World Cup qualifications, where England triumphed 1-0 in October 2017. The first match ended 0-0. In the Euro 2016 qualifiers, England comfortably beat Slovenia 3-1 at home and 3-2 away.

Match Prediction: England vs Slovenia

One Foden's worth more than the entire Slovenian squad, but on the field, it's all about the team's performance. Kek's team plays as they know best. England, with their superior class, should be able to score their customary goal and win, forcing Slovenia to open up. I’m leaning towards England with a -1 handicap.

Prediction for the Total Goals

It's uncertain if Southgate's men will find the strength to play a more open game. I am almost sure there will be few changes in the line-up since the qualification is still undecided, and the coach isn't known for taking risks. Slovenia will concede possession, and England will patiently probe for an opening. I expect the total number of goals to be under 2.5. I would be very surprised if the English side scores more than 2 goals.