Colombia - Paraguay predictions and free betting tips [24/06/2024]

On Tuesday, 25 June, in the first round of the group stage of Copa America, the Colombian national team will face Paraguay. "Los Cafeteros" boast an incredible 23-match unbeaten streak across all competitions and are considered the "dark horse" of the tournament, while Paraguayans have managed only one win in their last five encounters.

Predicted Line-ups

Colombia: Ospina; S. Arias, Mina, Cuesta, Machado; Uribe, Lerma; J. Arias, Rodriguez, Diaz; Cordoba. 

Forward Poveda (Sheffield Wednesday, 0 goals in 2 matches for the national team) was not included in Colombia's squad for this Copa America. Additionally, left-back Cabal (Verona), defender Cristian Borja (Braga), midfielder Barrios (Zenit) and the experienced Cuadrado (Inter Milan), as well as forwards Cassierra (Zenit, 1 goal) and Andres Gomez (Real Salt Lake, 1 goal) were not called up. However, the coaching staff can count on the main star of the blue and yellow, winger Luis Diaz (Liverpool).

Experienced goalkeeper David Ospina (Al-Nassr, 128 matches), defenders Davinson Sanchez (Galatasaray), Yerry Mina (Cagliari), midfielders Lerma (Crystal Palace) and James Rodriguez (Sao Paulo, 27 goals in 100 matches) will also take their places in the starting lineup. Creativity in attack will be provided by Sinisterra (Bournemouth) and Jhon Duran (Aston Villa), while "Lens" full-back Deiver Machado can strengthen the game in the second half. John Cordoba from "Krasnodar" also went to the tournament, hoping to make an impact as he gets playing time.

Paraguay: Coronel; Velasquez, Balbuena, Gomez, Alonso; Villasanti, Cubas, Almiron; Sosa, Bareiro, Enciso.

Paraguay, in turn, can rely on all their stars, including defenders Gustavo Gomez, Alderete (Getafe), Junior Alonso (Krasnodar), and Balbuena (Dynamo Moscow), and, most importantly, midfielder Almiron (Newcastle United), who has scored seven goals in 55 appearances for the national team. There are also forwards Gonzalez (Olimpia, 9 goals) and Romero (43 matches, 8 goals), as well as the promising Enciso (Brighton). Rodrigo Morinigo is the only red-and-blue player to go to the tournament without a single match played for the national team.

Experienced Sanabria (Torino), on the other hand, was not called up by the coaching staff for the continental championship, nor was former first-choice goalkeeper Fernandez and centre-back Roberto Rojas, who plays for "Vasco da Gama". Most of the players in this squad play club football on the other side of the Atlantic, either at home or in MLS, Argentina, or Brazil. Gustavo Velasquez recently scored a goal in a friendly match against Panama and hopes to start, while the goalkeeping gloves will be donned by Carlos Coronel.

Stadium

The match will take place in Houston at the NRG Stadium.

Colombia

Having won Copa America only once in their history (in 2001), Colombia has achieved significant success in recent years, as evidenced by 3rd place finishes in 2016 and 2021. However, the tricolours were disappointing in the qualification campaign for the last World Cup, failing to make it to Qatar. Since that fiasco, the team has regained excellent form: since February 2022, the Colombians have not lost a single match (13 wins and 5 draws). In the qualification for the 2026 World Cup, which began in September last year, "Los Cafeteros" currently occupy 3rd place with 12 points after six rounds.

In March, the nominal hosts won two friendly matches against Spain (1:0) and Romania (3:2), then literally trounced the USA in June (1:5), before finishing their preparations for Copa America by thrashing Bolivia (3:0), with goals from Arias, Cordoba, and Diaz. It is worth noting that Colombia has won its opening matches in each of the last three continental championships, including a 2:0 victory over the USA in 2016. Furthermore, Nestor Lorenzo's charges have won six matches in a row when scoring first.

Paraguay

Quarter-finalists in the last two Copa America tournaments, the Paraguayan national team will have to work hard to advance to the playoffs from Group D, which also includes Colombia, Brazil, and Costa Rica. In recent years, "Albirroja" has not pleased fans with success, having missed the last three World Cups. The qualification for the 2026 World Cup began last September, and Daniel Garnero's team has garnered only five points in the first six rounds. Despite this, the red-and-blues occupy 7th place in the standings, allowing them to contest a spot in the USA.

Paraguay has won just one of their last five matches across all competitions. Leading up to Copa America, the nominal guests drew with Peru (0:0), then suffered a heavy defeat to Chile (3:0) and narrowly beat Panama (0:1), with a lone goal by Gustavo Velasquez in the 25th minute. Incidentally, in the last Copa America in the USA in 2016, Paraguay was knocked out at the group stage, failing to secure a single victory and scoring just once. The fact that Paraguay has conceded in nine of their previous 10 matches is certainly a concern for the coaching staff.

Head-to-head

Paraguayans have not beaten Colombia in their last four meetings and have not won against the blue and yellow in Copa America since 2007 (5:0).

Match Prediction: Colombia vs Paraguay

The Colombian national team, after failing to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, has gained phenomenal form and has not lost in all competitions for two years. Nestor Lorenzo's men are justifiably considered the "dark horse" of the tournament, aiming at least to finish second in the group. Paraguay has long been bereft of results and has a much more modest squad. I'll wager on a victory for the favourites.

Total Prediction

Colombians have scored 15 (!) goals in their last five matches across all competitions, so there are no indications that the crisis-stricken Paraguay defence will be able to hold them back. I'll wager on an individual total over 1.5 for the yellow-blues.

Prediction for Corners

The Colombians are in great shape and will dominate throughout the match, so let's confidently bet on Lorenzo's team to win by corners.

Prediction for Yellow Cards

Copa America has always been rich in on-field passions and cautions, so I wager on a total yellow cards over 3.5.

Prediction for the Score

I'll wager on a final score of 2:0 in favour of the Colombian national team.