Turkey - Portugal predictions and free betting tips [22/06/2024]

On 22 June, an important Group F second-round match will take place at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund between Turkey and Portugal. After a confident victory in their first match, Turkey will face one of the tournament favourites, who miraculously won against the Czech Republic in the 95th minute.

Turkey

At the "Westfalenstadion" in Dortmund, the national teams of Turkey and Georgia delivered the most spectacular match of this Euro, featuring all the elements of a dramatic encounter: over 100 combined attacks, 36 shots, and 4 goals. Turkey won 3-1, showcasing one of their best performances at the Euros since 2008. The game began with young Turkish defender Mert Muldur from Fenerbahce scoring one of the best goals of this championship, superbly striking after a skilful dribble and precise shot from the edge of the penalty area.

Just 2 minutes later, Kenan Yildiz scored a second goal, but it was disallowed due to an offside by millimetres. Georgia equalised thanks to a historic goal by Georges Mikautadze, marking the country's first goal in European Championship history. This moment inspired the Georgian team, but their joy was short-lived. Turkey responded beautifully in the second half. The second goal was scored by the young 19-year-old talent from Real Madrid, Arda Guler, who managed to hit the net from 25 metres, sending the ball exactly into the top corner—a record-breaking goal for Turkish football. Despite the pressure from Turkey, Georgia showed character and fought until the last minute. 

Portugal

Roberto Martinez's Portugal arrived as favourites for Euro 2024 but left mixed impressions after their first match. The team faced the Czech Republic and, despite a 2-1 victory, did not demonstrate confident play. Martinez brought top players to each position, from Diogo Costa and Ruben Dias to Manchester stars Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva. The team's attacking potential with a two-forward setup of Cristiano Ronaldo and Rafael Leao did not reveal itself fully. The first half ended in a goalless draw despite active Portuguese attacks and predictably sterile possession. Despite 5 shots on goal, and the traditional free-kick into the wall from Cristiano, he could not make a difference. With all due respect to the Saudi Pro League, against energetic and tough Czechs he looked frankly average. He can no longer dominate physically, lacks burst speed, and showed nothing in the final stages, although all top players played for him. 

The situation was worsened by the focus on Ronaldo in the attack, limiting opportunities for his teammates, who also needed space to realise their potential—neither Leao nor Silva with Bruno could create in their usual manner. And when Provod scored from his first chance in the 62nd minute of the second half, it seemed Martinez's team had few chances left. Despite all difficulties, Portugal managed to win thanks to decisive moments in the last minutes. First, an own goal by Granach after an unsuccessful rebound from goalkeeper Stanek, and already in the 90th minute, the same Granach fumbled with the ball and 21-year-old Francisco Conceicao on the first minute of added time secured the victory and highlighted the strength of Roberto Martinez’s bench. Francisco scored 20 years after his more famous father Sergio's goals in the Euros.

Head-to-Head

Portugal and Turkey's national teams have met 3 times in the main stages of the European Championship. In 2008 and 1996, both matches took place during the group stage, and on both occasions Portugal won 2-0. In the quarterfinals of Euro 2000, thanks to a brace by Nuno Gomes, the Portuguese again triumphed with a 2-0 result. The last official match between the teams happened in the semi-finals of the World Cup qualifiers for Qatar, where Portugal once again proved their superiority, winning 3-1. Otávio and Jota made it 2-0, Burak Yilmaz equalised in the second half and missed a penalty for a draw. Matheus Nunes put the final point in that match.

Prediction for Turkey vs Portugal

The class of the Portuguese is evidently higher, while Turkey's defence was not impressive at all. Georgia should have scored at least 2, as indicated by their xG; it will be extremely difficult for the reckless Turks against Martinez's team. I anticipate a victory for Ronaldo with a total goals over 2.5.

Prediction for Total Fouls

Currently, bookmakers are offering a small total of 22.5 fouls, but Portugal commits very few fouls due to ball possession. I would risk betting on TU for fouls or a win for Turkey in this statistic.