On Wednesday, June 19th Croatia will face Albania in the second round of the Euro 2024 group stage. Both teams suffered defeats in their opening matches, making this clash crucial for their chances to advance to the playoffs.
Croatia: Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modrić, Brozović, Kovačić; Majer, Budimir, Kramarić.
Albania: Strakosha; Hysaj, Ajeti, Gjimshiti, Mihaj; Asllani, Ramadani; Laçi, Bajrami, Hoxha; Broja.
Dubbed the "dark horses" of Euro 2024, Croatia found themselves in the group of death. A disastrous 0-3 defeat to Spain in their opener means the Balkan side must fight tooth and nail for a top-two finish or hope to be among the best third-placed teams. Croatia conceded three goals in the last 15 minutes of the first half against Spain and, despite a better showing in the second half, failed to score. Bruno Petković's missed penalty added to their woes. It’s worth noting that Croatia reached the finals of the last Nations League and finished third at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, eliminating Brazil in the quarter-finals. They excelled in the 2018 World Cup, reaching the final. In the Euro 2024 qualifiers, Croatia finished second behind Turkey. They drew 0-0 with Tunisia in a friendly in March, then defeated Egypt 4-2. Early June saw victories against North Macedonia (3-0) and a sensational win over Portugal (2-1). Interestingly, Croatia hasn’t lost consecutive matches in a single European Championship final since Euro 1996.
Albania is making their second European Championship appearance, landing in Group B—the "group of death." Consequently, their playoff ambitions are modest. Playmaker Bajrami’s goal within 23 seconds, the fastest in Euros history, against Italy last Saturday capitalised on Dimarco’s error. However, Italy turned the match around with goals from Bastoni and Barella, eventually winning 2-1. This loss broke Albania's seven-match unbeaten run, their first defeat since March 2023. Albania topped their qualifying group, outperforming the Czech Republic, Poland, Moldova, and the Faroe Islands with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. They subsequently lost to Chile (0-3) and Sweden (1-0) in March friendlies, before securing wins against Liechtenstein (3-0) and Azerbaijan (3-1) in early June.
These teams have never faced each other before.
In the second Group B round, a defeat for either side almost certainly means elimination from Euro 2024. Despite Croatia's lacklustre opening performance, their rich experience in such tournaments should see them through on Wednesday. Croatia’s performance against Spain wasn’t entirely hopeless; poor finishing was their downfall. My prediction is a victory for Zlatko Dalić's team with a handicap of -1.
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