Spain - Croatia predictions and free betting tips [15/06/2024]

Tomorrow, at the Olympic Stadium in Berlin, the first-round match of the European Championship in Group B between Spain and Croatia will take place. 

Analysis of Spain's Squad for Euro 2024

After the crisis of the 2010s, the Spanish national team underwent significant changes. Unlike the "golden generation," which won three major tournaments in a row from 2008, the current squad under Luis de la Fuente represents a mix of youth and experience. However, there are hardly any standout players like Ramos, Xavi or David Villa.

Goalkeepers

The main goalkeeper for Spain will be Unai Simón (Athletic Bilbao). Despite not reaching the level of Iker Casillas, Simón shows reliable play. The second choice is David Raya (Arsenal), who has displaced Ramsdale from his club's first team, albeit with limited appearances for the national team so far. The third goalkeeper is Álex Remiro (Real Sociedad).

Defence

Spain's defence features several experienced players. The 39-year-old Jesús Navas (Sevilla) and two UEFA Champions League winners Dani Carvajal and Nacho Fernández from Real Madrid. Nacho is set to leave Real Madrid after 17 years and move to Saudi Arabia. In the central defence, competition includes Aymeric Laporte of Al-Nassr and Robin Le Normand of Real Sociedad. On the flanks play the less consistent Marc Cucurella (Chelsea) and Europe's top lateral player Alejandro Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen), whom de la Fuente is yet to trust fully.

Midfield

In midfield, the mainstay is Rodri (Manchester City), one of the world's best defensive midfielders, who had an outstanding season. His place in the starting eleven is undisputed, as is the place of Barcelona’s rising star Pedri, who has recovered from injury. However, Spain's midfield, which includes Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino from Real Sociedad, Fabián Ruiz from PSG, and Álex Baena from Villarreal, looks less impressive compared to the past.

Attack

Spain's main issue post-Fernando Torres and David Villa is the centre-forward position. Álvaro Morata has long failed to show top form, with few alternatives. Theoretically, Dani Olmo (RB Leipzig) could play the "number nine" role. Consistent wingers include Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres from Barcelona, and Nico Williams (Athletic), while players like Oyarzabal and Pérez are yet to establish themselves as core starting players.

Analysis of Croatia's Squad for Euro 2024

"Only old men are going into battle" best describes another of Dalic's team entering a major tournament. The 2018 World Cup finalists will perform their swan song for their legendary veterans: Modric, Vida, Perisic, and Brozovic. Among these, only Modric still plays a significant role at Real Madrid and recently extended his stay for another season.

Goalkeepers

The main goalkeeper for several years has been Dominik Livaković (Fenerbahce), who displaced Subasic and holds his position firmly. Ivica Ivusic (Paphos) and Nedyalko Labrovic (Rijeka) will only appear on the field in the case of an emergency.

Defence

In defence, two stars stand out: Premier League champion and a key player under Pep at Manchester City, Joško Gvardiol, and sensational German champion Josip Stanišić. They will definitely start, along with Vida from AEK. The defence also includes stable players from Ajax, Borna Sosa and Josip Sutalo, with Sosa as the main left-back.

Midfield

Croatia's main strength has always been its midfield. Mario Pašalić won the Europa League with Atalanta, Marcelo Brozović is finishing his career in Saudi Arabia with Al-Nassr, Mateo Kovačić became a champion with Manchester City and often played in the starting lineup. Modrić remains a guaranteed starter and a legend for the ages. Competing for the attacking midfielder position are Lovro Majer (Wolfsburg), Nikola Vlašić (Torino), and Luka Ivanušec (Feyenoord).

Attack

The attack is Croatia's weakest zone after Mandzukic's departure. Ivan Perišić (Hajduk) returned home after a successful stint at Tottenham and has recovered from a severe cruciate ligament injury. The centre-forward is Ante Budimir (Osasuna), who had a bright season in La Liga, becoming the second top scorer. His competitor is Bruno Petković (Dinamo Zagreb). Also in the squad is regular starter Andrej Kramarić (Hoffenheim) and the local hopeful Marko Pašalić (Rijeka).

Spain

"The Red Fury" holds three European Championship titles (1964, 2008, and 2012), making them the first European team to defend the title, as well as the 2010 World Cup. At Euro 2021, the Spanish national team finished with bronze medals, falling to Italy in the semi-finals, who went on to become champions, after a 1-1 draw in regular time and a 4-2 loss in the penalty shootout. In the 2022 World Cup, Spain finished second in Group F, also featuring Japan, Germany, and Costa Rica. However, they were unexpectedly knocked out by Morocco in the first play-off round after a goalless draw in regular time and a 0-3 loss in the penalty shootout.

Following this, Luis Enrique resigned as head coach. Luis de la Fuente's team qualified for Euro 2024 in Germany with ease and confidence. In the qualifiers, they secured 7 victories and suffered 1 defeat to Scotland with a score of 0-2, leaving Norway behind by defeating them 3-0 and 1-0. Spain showcased their prowess in friendly matches leading up to the tournament, demolishing Northern Ireland 5-1 and Andorra 5-0, drawing with Brazil 3-3, and losing to Colombia 0-1.

Croatia

The Croatian national team has achieved extraordinary success on the international stage throughout its history. The 2018 World Cup, in which Croatia reached the final and captain Luka Modrić was named the tournament's best player, stands out particularly memorably. This achievement reflects their bronze medal at the 1998 World Cup, where Davor Šuker became the top scorer. At Euro 2021, Croatia advanced from the group stage in second place behind England, Czech Republic, and Scotland but lost in the playoffs. The 2022 World Cup in Qatar was similarly successful, as Croatia claimed bronze after thrilling victories against Japan and Brazil, while falling to Argentina in the semi-finals.

 To qualify for this Euro tournament, Dalic's squad finished second in their group, losing to Turkey but then securing direct qualification by gaining 16 points from 8 games with 5 victories. Croatia has been demonstrating confidence in recent friendly matches, securing 4 consecutive wins, summing up to 6 straight victories along with the qualifying matches. Among their recent achievements are victories over Portugal (2-1), North Macedonia (3-0), Egypt (4-2), and Tunisia (1-0).

Head-to-Head

In recent years, Spain and Croatia have faced each other twice at the Euros and thrice in the Nations League. Spain has won once in regular time, while Croatia has won twice, but "La Roja" has emerged victorious twice after regular time. The most memorable encounter was in the round of 16 at the last Euros, where Spain triumphed in extra time with a 5-3 score. Croatia managed an impressive comeback, levelling the score from 1-3 ten minutes before regular time, but goals from Álvaro Morata and Mikel Oyarzabal in extra time sealed the deal for Spain, ending 3-5.

 Their last encounter occurred in the Nations League final, where, following a goalless draw in regular time, Spain won again, this time in the penalty shootout. Previously, the teams met in the Nations League group stage on 15 November 2018, where Croatia triumphed 3-2, avenging their 6-0 defeat. Also notable is the 2016 Euro group stage, where Croatia won against Spain 2-1 thanks to a late goal by Ivan Perišić.

Match Prediction: Spain vs Croatia

In their first match, de la Fuente's team will face extreme difficulty. They are poised for possession, while Croatia excels at playing on the counter and capitalising on their few chances. Bet on X2.

Total Bet Prediction

Considering recent head-to-head encounters, it's logical to bet on TO 2.5 with a high odds. Croatia's experienced side can score, while Spain will likely have prepared for numerous positional attacks.

Yellow Card Prediction

The match will be refereed by Englishman Michael Oliver, who tends to allow physical play. Given Spain's possession style, I don't expect many fouls, and considering Oliver's refereeing style, I suggest betting on TU 4.5 yellow cards.